Results of the National Population Projections Expert Group Questionnaire Chris Shaw ONS

Background to NPP Expert Group Aim to have a formal way of feeding expert views into assumption setting process Group set up via BSPS in 2005 Group is advisory Has now contributed to last two sets of national projections through –Questionnaires –Formal meetings Details published –GAD website –Projections reference volume

Membership David Coleman (University of Oxford) John Hollis (Greater London Authority) Mike Murphy (London School of Economics) Phil Rees (University of Leeds) John Salt (University College London) Robert Wright (University of Strathclyde)

Achievements NPP assumptions have moved closer to expert views –may partly be coincidental! –but influential on mortality thinking Reinforced current choice of variant assumptions Provided input to stochastic forecasting work ONS now have improved understanding of why experts think what they do

Respondents’ estimates of the TFR in 2030

Respondents’ estimates of period life expectancy at birth for males in 2030

Respondents’ estimates of total net migration in 2030

Key UK indicators at 2030 ONS 2006-based principal Expert panel average TFR Male period life expectancy at birth Female period life expectancy at birth Annual net migration+190, ,000

Uncertainty at 2030 ONS assumptions (High variant – low variant) Expert panel average 67% confidence interval (high – low) TFR Male period life expectancy at birth Female period life expectancy at birth Annual net migration120,000165,000

2007 questionnaire UK panel piloted questionnaire being developed by Professor Wolfgang Lutz, leader of the World Population Programme at IIASA Aims to –provide a rigorous framework for the assessment of expert opinion –by assessing the validity & importance of arguments about future trends Questionnaire long, complex and imperfect! But has yielded rich source of qualitative data

Major forces shaping fertility % weightingMinMax Desire for children23560 Education & work Macro level conditions (childcare, housing …) Stability of partnerships Bio-medical conditions9515 Population composition

A strong desire for two child families will continue because of the value attached to siblings. Validity of argument

A strong desire for two child families will continue because of the value attached to siblings. Importance of argument

Disagreement among experts (example 1) It is part of human nature to want at least two children. This is unlikely to change in future. Validity of argument

Major forces shaping mortality % weightingMinMax Bio-medical technology Health care systems Behavioural changes New/resurgent diseases 9515 Environmental changes 8515 Population composition

Major forces shaping mortality UK PanelIIASA (18 world experts) Bio-medical technology 2825 Health care systems 1724 Behavioural changes 2825 New/resurgent diseases 97 Environmental changes 88 Population composition

Increased understanding of bio-medical ageing processes will allow us to develop effective anti-ageing strategies. Validity of argument

Increased understanding of bio-medical ageing processes will allow us to develop effective anti-ageing strategies. Importance of argument

Smoking prevalence will continue to decline. Validity of argument

Smoking prevalence will continue to decline. Importance of argument

Major forces shaping migration % weightingMinMax Motives for migration (work, family formation, study) Changes in countries of origin Attractiveness of UK Costs of migration 8515 Barriers against migration

There will be an increase in the total number of people wishing to migrate to and from the United Kingdom for work related reasons. Validity of argument

There will be an increase in the total number of people wishing to migrate to and from the United Kingdom for work related reasons. Importance of argument

Population ageing in the UK will result in a shortage of young labour which will increase the demand for immigrants. Validity of argument

Population ageing in the UK will result in a shortage of young labour which will increase the demand for immigrants. Importance of argument

Of over 90 arguments, there was only one which the experts unanimously agreed was invalid. There is likely to be a move in the direction of “professional parenthood” where some couples will specialize in raising larger families and receive compensation equivalent to that of other professional services, while other women become entirely work-oriented. Validity of argument

Disagreement among experts (example 2) Global climate change will lead to a decline in food production in certain parts of the world and, as a result, uncontrolled mass migration and conflicts will increase mortality in this country. Validity of argument

Disagreement among experts (example 3) The economic consequences for the poorest countries of substantial out- migration will put moral pressure on developed countries to limit immigration. Validity of argument

Factors considered to be valid by the majority of the panel and considered to have the potential to impact on future levels. Fertility Factors that could have an upwards impact on fertility: Increasing social acceptability of having children at older ages. Government being likely to improve financial support for children through child subsidies and tax benefits. Increases in union dissolution and re-formation leading to additional children in new partnerships. Medically assisted conceptions solving more fecundity problems in future.

Factors considered to be valid by the majority of the panel and considered to have the potential to impact on future levels. Fertility Factors that could have an downwards impact on fertility: Family formation being postponed due to time spent in education. Fewer grandmothers available to help with childcare (due to increased female labour force participation and increasing retirement age). Women delaying pregnancy to older ages where there is a higher risk of not getting pregnant. Decreasing proportion of unplanned births due to improvements in contraception. Convergence in fertility rates of ethnic minority women resident in the UK with fertility rates of indigenous women.

Factors considered to be valid by the majority of the panel and considered to have the potential to impact on future levels. Mortality Factors that could have an upwards impact on life expectancy: Greater understanding of bio-medical ageing processes leading to the development of effective anti-ageing strategies. Breakthroughs in the understanding of carcinogenic processes leading to reduced mortality from cancer. Medical advances leading to previously life-threatening diseases becoming containable. Progress in preventive medicine. Better information about health. A continued decrease in smoking prevalence. Effective and easily affordable new technologies.

Factors considered to be valid by the majority of the panel and considered to have the potential to impact on future levels. Mortality Factors that could diminish or reverse increases in life expectancy: Increasing drug resistance to known infectious diseases. Negative impact on health of increased stress levels. Majority of immigration will be from counties with higher mortality than UK.

Factors considered to be valid by the majority of the panel and considered to have the potential to impact on future levels. Migration Factors that could have an upwards impact on net migration: Likelihood of increasing migration to and from the UK for work related, family reunification/formation and education reasons. High population growth in developing countries. Population ageing in the UK. The relative attractiveness of the UK as a country of destination (for economic and other reasons); With increasing globalisation, the increasing ease of movement from one country to another.

Factors considered to be valid by the majority of the panel and considered to have the potential to impact on future levels. Migration Factors that could have a downwards impact on net migration: Increases in retirement emigration from the UK. The likelihood of new EU countries and developing countries ‘catching-up’ in terms of economic growth; Problems with integration leading to more restrictive immigration policies.