Special Event: GLOBAL CHANGE AND FLOODS Climate Information in support of Adaptation Planning

Global Change and Floods Flood Policy Robustness under Uncertainty Dr. Wolfgang E. Grabs World Meteorological Organization World Climate Conference - 3

and at the same time poses great risks Settling on floodplains has enormous advantages

Challenges of Flood Management Climate Variability and Change cumulus.geol.iastate.edu / Changes in the decision making processes (Community Participation) Absolute safety from flooding is a myth

Projected impacts of climate change 1°C2°C5°C4°C3°C Sea level rise threatens major cities Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Food Water Ecosystems Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C Falling yields in many developed regions Rising number of species face extinction Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranea and Africa Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Extreme Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions

The Context: WMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM) Support countries in the integrated management of floods Within the framework of Integrated Water Resources Management

Integrated Flood Management (IFM) Integrated Flood Management (IFM) refers to the integration of land and water management in a river basin using a combination of measures that focus on coping with floods within a framework of IWRM and adopting risk management principles, while recognizing that floods have beneficial impacts and can never be fully controlled.

Key elements of IFM Managing the water cycle as a whole Integration of land and water management Best (Harmonized)-mix of strategies Participatory approach Integrated natural hazard impact mitigation

Regional pilot projects Pilot projects were executed in –South Asia, (Nepal, India, Bangladesh) –Africa, (Kenya, Zambia) –South America, (Brazil, Uruguay) and –Central and Eastern Europe (Poland, Romania, Slovakia) through GWP/ WMO regional and national networks Aim of pilot projects: develop and implement IFM concept and its application through demonstration.

Flood Management Policy Series Instrumental in bridging disciplinary gaps for IFM Expert-group based Peer-reviewed Specific target groups –Policy Makers –Flood Managers –Experts in respective special fields language and format adapted to target group

Water related policies and the adaptation challenge Integrated Water Resources Management Integrated Flood Management Integrated Coastal Zone Management Robust: not event driven, cross sectoral integration of development policy goals for current and future needs Flexible: not based on one scenario only, best-mix of measures Adaptive: able to function under uncertainty and adjust the management approach based on the outcomes of implemented strategies and taking into account new realities

Policy Robustness Impacts Affected parameters in relation to water Snow cover storage, seasonality of flows Evapotranspiration, Freshwater availability Evapotranspiration freshwater & coolingwater availability Streamflow, flood frequency, sediment transport, slope stability Freshwater availability Stormsurge frequency IFM Policy Principles conducive to sustainable adaptation policies -Balanced outlook on technical storage options including linkages to energy production and greenhouse gas emmissions - Combined flood and drought management plans, IWRM as framing concept - Food security and livelihood focus - Managing all floods (smaller and extremes, riverine and coastal) - Flood Risk Management and multihazard outlook - Productive use of flood waters - Best mix of structural and non- structural options -Participatory and river basin approach

Coping with Climate Variability: A Risk Perspective Science of Climate Useful knowledge Broad Sector Studies Decision making under uncertainty Climate only one input! Design of local strategies Incorporation into practice Training & policy shift Disaster Relief Management Current Barriers New Technologies and Political will

Model-simulated changes in extreme rainfall in southern England 30-year event 12-year event 4-year event

Adapting (generic) Improve technology access Institutional reform Improved equity Access to information Build social capital Access to wealth creation Adapting (specific) Mainstreaming adaptation Natural resource management New technology Disaster planning Retrofit existing structures Build resilience/resistance Autonomous adaptation Assess risk Manage risk No adaptation Autonomous adaptation Critical risk Coping range Adaptive capacity Mitigation Adaptation Mitigative capacity Danger Adapting (transformative) Replace activity Abandon activity Transform activity Source: Roger N. Jones - CSIRO So how do we cope? Scope for adaptive integrated flood management

Mean historic climatology Range of climate variability Present-day range of adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity under CC – option I Adaptive capacity out-of-range under CC – option II Need for adaptive integrated flood management ADAPTIVE CAPACITY UNDER CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

POLICY CONCEPT AND CLIMATE INFORMATION IFM is a development policy concept that is flexible and robust enough to fully integrate a climate change adaptation perspective (« autonomous » adaptation option) Applying IFM principles in adaptation process reduces the risk of mal – adaptation Key research areas remain –non-stationarity in hydrological time series and implications on flood management, –projections of precipitation and streamflow in different CC scenarios Increased use of climate information in water resources management on seasonal to interannual time scales as a major opportunity of the next decade

Climate Research and Modeling Climate Services Information System Sectoral Users User Interface Programme Observations and Monitoring Global Framework for Climate Services Components Health Agriculture Transport Tourism Water Energy Ecosystem Government Private Sector WMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood Management

A facility that provides guidance on flood management policy, strategy, and institutional development related to flood issues to countries that want to adopt the IFM concept IFM HelpDesk No Disaster Assistance or Flood Emergency Response Functions !!!

Objectives of the HelpDesk quick accessProvide quick access to relevant flood management information; guidance and momentum for reformProvide guidance and momentum for reform in favour of IFM in countries or river basins in developing flood management policies, strategies and institutional arrangements; multi- disciplinary scientific expertise and best practiceServe as a link between flood management practitioners and decision-makers and multi- disciplinary scientific expertise and best practice sustainable capacity development mechanismProvide a continuous and sustainable capacity development mechanism in support of IFM implementation.

Service Spectrum

Service Spectrum (cont.)

HelpDesk Target Audience Government officialsGovernment officials involved in decision making at various levels of Government, charged with a role in flood management River Basin OrganizationsRiver Basin Organizations Organizations involved in Development CooperationBi- and Multilateral Organizations involved in Development Cooperation UN System organizationsUN System organizations with interest in flood management Non-Governmental OrganizationsNon-Governmental Organizations working with flood affected communities, Voluntary and Community- based Organizations Universities,Universities, esp. for curriculum design

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