World Future Society Washington, DC Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Lessons From Singapore and the Project on National Security Reform Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. Chair and Professor, Department of Management and Communications Walsh College Troy, MI 17 January 2013

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities National Security Strategy Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 2

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Lessons From the Project on National Security Reform Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 3

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities More than twenty years ago… Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 4

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The United States does not develop whole of government “Grand Strategies.” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 5

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Private Sector Management Tools Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 6

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities “What mechanisms should the U.S. government develop?” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 7

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities “We are now concerned with the peace of the entire world and the peace can only be maintained by the strong.” - General George C. Marshall Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 8

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities A Systems Approach… Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 9

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities U.S. security is rooted in the successful integration of all elements of national power. Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 10

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities “What is the basis for re-thinking the national security system?” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 11

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities “What is and what is not national security?” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 12

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities “Threats” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 13

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities “Opportunities” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 14

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Any situation, condition, or entity that has the potential to enhance or degrade the viability and vitality of the nation. Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 15

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The National Security System would be responsible for and measured by: The viability and vitality of the nation, Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 16

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The National Security System would be responsible for and measured by: The viability and vitality of the nation, Peaceful and positive development throughout the countries of every region Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 17

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The National Security System would be responsible for and measured by: The viability and vitality of the nation, Peaceful and positive development throughout the countries of every region Cooperation and collaboration around the globe Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 18

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities A Learning Organization Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 19

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 20

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System Share information and collaborate horizontally Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 21

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System Share information and collaborate horizontally Accommodate unanticipated needs and partnerships Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 22

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System Share information and collaborate horizontally Accommodate unanticipated needs and partnerships Ensure agility in the face of uncertainty Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 23

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System Share information and collaborate horizontally Accommodate unanticipated needs and partnerships Ensure agility in the face of uncertainty Incorporate ad-hoc structures and processes, and Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 24

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Complex Adaptive System Share information and collaborate horizontally Accommodate unanticipated needs and partnerships Ensure agility in the face of uncertainty Incorporate ad-hoc structures and processes, and Maintain a long-term view Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 25

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Complex System of Complex Systems Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 26

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Environment of the 21 st Century Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 27

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The world is a system Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 28

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The world is a system The nation’s homelands are no longer protected by distance or time Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 29

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The world is a system The nation’s homelands are no longer protected by distance or time Globalization demands a holistic world view Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 30

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities “If you know the enemy and you know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained, you will suffer a defeat. But if you know neither yourself nor the enemy, you will succumb in every battle.” - Suz Tzu, The Art of War, ~400 B.C. Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 31

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything” - President Dwight D. Eisenhower Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 32

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities National Security Characteristics Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 33

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Center for Strategic Analysis and Assessment Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 34

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Synthesize all of government solutions to complex system issues and problems, and sometimes “all of society.” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 35

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Nine scenarios in three time frames: Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 36

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The 2020 scenarios include: Red Death Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 37

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The 2020 scenarios include: Red Death The People’s War Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 38

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The 2020 scenarios include: Red Death The People’s War A Grand Strategy Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 39

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The 2040 scenarios include: A New Economy Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 40

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The 2040 scenarios include: A New Economy Army of One Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 41

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The 2040 scenarios include: A New Economy Army of One Who Holds the High Ground Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 42

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The 2040 scenarios include: A New Economy Army of One Who Holds the High Ground A Brave New World Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 43

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The 2060 scenarios include: A Warm Reception Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 44

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The 2060 scenarios include: A Warm Reception It’s a Small World Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 45

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Possibility of a Singularity Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 46

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Findings significantly improved system performance. Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 47

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Studying Singapore Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 48

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities According to Peter Ho in Ethos, “Challenge conformist thinking,” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 49

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities According to Peter Ho in Ethos, “Challenge conformist thinking,” “Identify emergent risks,” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 50

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities According to Peter Ho in Ethos, “Challenge conformist thinking,” “Identify emergent risks,” “Calibrate strategic thinking processes,” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 51

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities According to Peter Ho in Ethos, “Challenge conformist thinking,” “Identify emergent risks,” “Calibrate strategic thinking processes,” “Cultivate capabilities, instincts and habits.” Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 52

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Improving White House Thinking Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 53

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities By the Establishment of the Center for Strategic Analysis and Assessment Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 54

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 55

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework Support the integration of near, mid and long-term plans Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 56

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework Support the integration of near, mid and long-term plans Provide comprehensive exercises Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 57

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework Support the integration of near, mid and long-term plans Provide comprehensive exercises Provide networking and an outreach function Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 58

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework Support the integration of near, mid and long-term plans Provide comprehensive exercises Provide networking and an outreach function Provide workshops and seminars Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 59

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework Support the integration of near, mid and long-term plans Provide comprehensive exercises Provide networking and an outreach function Provide workshops and seminars Maintain unity of purpose over successive Administrations Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 60

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Annual State of the World Conference Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 61

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Internal Staff Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 62

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Understanding Global Strategic Assets Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 63

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Scenario Examples Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 64

17 January 2013 Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Grand Strategy Assessments Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 65

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Five Essential Planning Perspectives: Space The planet Regions Countries Internal or Domestic 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 66

System Risk Across the STEEP Variables 17 January 2013 Sociological Technological Economic Environmental Political System “System Risk” is the aggregation and understanding of the many forms of risk that occur internal and external to the system but which potentially have an impact on the system; the product of the interactions and interdependencies of the various forms of risk, sociological, technological, economic, environmental and political. Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 67

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Visioning and Development of Scenarios 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 68

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Gaming 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 69

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Barriers to Success 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 70

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Further Challenges 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 71

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities In Conclusion: Strategic and systems thinking and visioning 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 72

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities In Conclusion: Strategic and systems thinking and visioning Development of a holistic and evolving view of the global environment and national security context 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 73

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities In Conclusion: Strategic and systems thinking and visioning Development of a holistic and evolving view of the global environment and national security context Game specific scenarios for policy implications 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 74

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities In Conclusion: Strategic and systems thinking and visioning Development of a holistic and evolving view of the global environment and national security context Game specific scenarios for policy implications Continuous development of scenarios 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 75

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities In Conclusion: Strategic and systems thinking and visioning Development of a holistic and evolving view of the global environment and national security context Game specific scenarios for policy implications Continuous development of scenarios House leading edge tools and technologies 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 76

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities In Conclusion: Engaging in red teaming to test assumptions 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 77

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities In Conclusion: Engaging in red teaming to test assumptions Providing classified environments 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 78

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities In Conclusion: Engaging in red teaming to test assumptions Providing classified environments Developing of “Grand Strategies 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 79

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities In Conclusion: Engaging in red teaming to test assumptions Providing classified environments Developing of “Grand Strategies Providing networking and outreach 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 80

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities In Conclusion: Engaging in red teaming to test assumptions Providing classified environments Developing of “Grand Strategies Providing networking and outreach “Challenging conventional wisdom” 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 81

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Plan for the future so the U.S. can figure out how to remain strong The pilot in Michigan 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 82

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities The Future World 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 83

Executive Office of the President of the United States: The Need for New Capabilities Thank you! 17 January 2013 Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 84