COLLECTIVE BARGAINING: DEALING WITH THE NEW RECESSION EMF Collective bargaining Summer School Cyprus, September 2009

Two parts What is (already) happening ? Coordinating collective bargaining in the European marketplace in this time of crisis.

United Kingdom : Employers exagerate UK employers claim 58% of companies would freeze wages and 12% would cut wages Reality (up to Q2 of this year)? (IDS database on pay settlements) – Rate of increase in median pay settlement falling rapidly (from 4% end 2008 to 2% June 09) but still in positive terrain –One third of pay settlements : Freezes

TUC position on concession bargaining Accepts reality of concession bargaining (pay cuts) in some companies to survive the downturn… …but warns for a generalised cut in wages throughout the economy Important reasons to maintain earnings during a recession: –Workers’ motivation and productivity –Negative impact on demand, further aggravation of the downturn

Spain: Social partner concensus breaks down For first time in many years: No intersectoral agreement to guide wage negotiations in sectors and companies Trade union position: At least 2% wage increase Employer demands: –Cut employers’ social security contributions (5%) –Crisis employment contract with lower severance pay (21st century contract with 20 days severance pay per year, with an absolute ceiling of one years’ pay and no recourse to labour courts) –Delete obligation to autorise ‘company redundancy plan’ –Wage increases not to exceed 1% –If higher, then no ‘wage revision’ clause (indexation to inflation) –If wage revision clause, also adjust wages downwards in case inflation is lower than expected. –Opening clauses for companies to refuse agreed pay increases in case of losses.

Spain: Government decides (March 2009) To tackle the crisis (PM: 18% or more unemployed): –‘Temporarely (?)’ laid off workers can have a longer period of benefit entitlements (120 or 60 days). –Companies ‘temporarily’ laying off workers (instead of simply firing them) only have to pay 50% of normal social security contributions up to 240 days –Postponing of 2009 payment of company social security contributions for viable firms in financial difficulties –A firm hiring an umployed (for at least three months) can use workers’ benfits to reduce employers’ social security for up to three years –Recruiting part time employees delivers full time (100%) cuts in employers’ social security contributions –One month waiting period to receive unemployment benefit abolished –Staff at public employment services increased

Spain (July): Negotiations continue (and continue to fail) Government proposes: –Cut in employer’s social security contributions between 0,5 and 2 –New unemployment benefit of 420 euro for those unemployed not covered at the moment –Relax restrictions on temporary agency work in construction, chemicals (health and safety risks) and public services Employers not satisfied Trade unions reject major cuts in employer social security contributions as well as easier dismissal in the current climate of massive job losses

Spain: Wage bargaining outcomes Collective bargaining in first five months of the year From a 3,5% wage increase in same period in 2008… …to a 2,68% increase in 2009

Germany : Sector bargaining agreements Wage increase actually paid in 2009 because of collective agreements concluded in 2009 and before: 3% (with inflation running at 0,5% and less) From 1,2% in retail to 3,5% in machinery and 4% in chemicals Wage increase agreed in (sector) bargaining agreements in first half of 2009: 2,8% (West: 2,6%/ East: 3,6%).Average duration of these new agreements: 23 months.

Germany: What news from the sectors ? Mid April Metal agreement in Baden Würtemmberg allows company level deviations from existing sector agreement. Applies until end 2010 Existing arrangement: Employers top up state benefit to 80% of wages in case of ‘Kurzarbeit’ Alternative option (1):93% of earnings with annual bonuses cut in return Alternative option (2): 97% of pay for a 10% cut in hours up to 82% of pay for 80% reduction in working hours. Cuts in bonuses in return.

Baden Würtemmberg agreement: ’Precarious work’ dilemma Notice to introduce short time work cut from three weeks to one day (Works council still has to agree) Opting out of national law on fixed term work :Fixed term contracts now possible up to 4 years instead of the legal period of 2 years. Background : Keep on recently hired fixed term staff instead of letting them go.

Poland : Succesful social dialogue Agreement between employers and trade unions in March 2009…. –Introduction of short time work and greater working time flexibility in return for avoiding mass lay offs. –Up to 50% reduction in working time with benefits worth 70% of national minimum wage –Moreover, variation in 40 hour working week (working less hours now to work longer working weeks without overtime pay premium later …leads to a governmental proposal (‘anti crisis’ package) in July 2009: –If company sales fall by at least 30%,working time can be reduced up to 50%. –Reference period for 40 hour week extended from 4 to 12 months (‘annualisation’). –New limits on duration of fixed term contracts, aiming to increase stability –Public money for companies to organise training –However, major raise in minimum wage postponed

France : Tri partite dialogue continues to rule July: National tri partite agreement (without CGT?): –Maintain contractual link between workers and their company: Short time work budget from 800 to 1000 hours Short time work expanded to shops and services and easier access for SME’s Employee leasing agreements: To outsource temporarily workers from companies without orders to companies with lack of staff (collective agreement sending company must be respected, aquired rights as well unless the employee consents?) –Protect the most vulnerable from the crisis Extension of ‘contrats de transition’ from 25 to 40 areas : 80% of benefit during one year for worker stepping in and out of training and (short term) jobs. Mentoring of young workers by older colleagues going on part time early retirement

Italy Demands for a wage increase in metal between 113 and 130 euros plus creation of fund to support workers that have lost their job Similar formulaes as German ‘Kurzarbeit’: –Casa Integratione –Solidarity agreements (60% of pay, up to 2 or 3 years (South of Italy), no redundancies allowed). Confindustria suggests to increase benefit from 60 to 80% of lost pay.

Benelux Belgium: National cross sectoral agreement for 2009 and 2010 : –No real pay increase agreed (except for 125 and 250 euro for, respectively, 2009 and 2010) –However, automatic indexation plus early retirement from 56 years maintained. –But: with inflation turning negative, automatic indexation would turn into automatic cuts in wages Netherlands: –TNT agreement: 15% cut in wages because of liberalisation in postal sector (In Germany, TNT is questioning the postal minimum wage). –Short time work schemes evolving into a part time work scheme, with major discussions between trade unions and government

Ireland Massive consolidation effort : 7% levy on public sector wages Foreign investors and finance minister pushing for pay cuts up to 15% in subsidiaries of multinational investors, in the national minimum wage and in wages set by joint labour committees.

The Baltics (and others):The IMF takes over again

One conclusion to draw from overview of collective bargaining Heading towards very, very low collectively bargained wage increases: Towards a ‘wage freeze’ ? On top of that : –Opening clauses in major countries –Outright ‘wage cutting’ experiments in the ‘periphery’ (Setting the example ?) ‘Financeers’ watching closely (Wage dynamics network – 23 central banks coordinated by the ECB) –Buba: 15% of German companies have reduced wages in , in other countries only 2 or 3% of companies –Spain: 70% of companies implement wage policy linked to inflation (wage revision clause) compared to 33% on average in Europe.

Macro Data from the Commission Spring Forecast : EU 27

Macro Data for the Euro Area

Unit labour costs around 2%?

Will wages resist on average?

What about the backlog in productivity?

On the eve of deflation ? Striking similarities between Japan mid nineties…..

…and Europe at this moment

A key issue to reflect upon How to deal with the phallacy of composition concerning wage formation in Europe ? –On the one hand, perfectly understandable that workers willing to give up on wages to save their jobs –On the other hand, it’s exactly this attitude that will destroy jobs if this becomes the general reaction to the crisis : – The downwards spiral : ‘Wage freezes’ become ‘wage cuts’ agreements –Depression and deflation

Option 1: Go for the ‘New Social Deal’ Strenghten wage formation and collective bargaing European policy coordination on: –Insuring minimum levels of wages exist in all labour markets –Enlarging the coverage rate of collectively bargained wages Force of the intellectual argument on our side (fair wages as a sustainanble engine of demand and growth instead of financial bubbles). But not the force of the ‘emotional’ argument’ (‘We are all in the same boat together’), nor the political power balance.

Option 2: Defend and implement coordination on existing formulae ‘Inflation plus productivity’ Looking at ‘trends’ over several years : –Allows to ‘digest’ 2008/2009 collapse in productivity (which would be followed by a surge in productivity performance anyway?) –However, danger of allowing wage moderation now, hoping (vainly?) to recover wage moderation in coming years. –If so, don’t we need a second (internal) line of defense ? (such as ‘at least inflation’ or at least ‘some’ real wage increase). Do we maintain the reference to effective inflation? In doing so, we will consolidate ‘too low’ inflation? Do we take price stabilility inflation of 2% instead of effecive inflation into account?

Option 3:Adress the reality of concessional bargaining Try and set limits to concessional bargaining? –Wage freezes/wage cuts, only and only in return for (collectively bargained of course) operations of ‘job redistribution of labour and jobs’ with links to skills upgrading’ –…and not to ‘steal’ jobs from other regions/companies or to cut prices –Background: Mass unemployment (11 to 12%) and excess supply of labour –Possibly implies diverse formulaes from shorter working hours to part time early retirement –Should we think of European principles to coordinate and steer ‘concession bargaining’ in this way? –Another variation : Wage freezes/wage cuts only in return for shares for worker/worker participation/abolishment CEO bonuses and ‘golden parachutes’ ? –Implicit logic of this: We ‘accept’ concessional bargaining (even if it’s temporary)