WWRP- GAW 1 WWRP JSC February 2011 WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) SOME RESEARCH ASPECTS IN THE SDS-WAS IMPLEMENTATION Slobodan Nickovic Research Department World Meteorological Organization

WWRP- GAW 2 WWRP JSC February 2011 Dust Plumes off Libya and Egypt February 18, 2011

WWRP- GAW 3 WWRP JSC February 2011 MODIS detection of dust strom Health NASA dust-health related project REASoN – PHAiRS ( )

WWRP- GAW 4 WWRP JSC February 2011 Sources based on MODIS hi-res data Health NASA dust-health related project REASoN – PHAiRS ( )

WWRP- GAW 5 WWRP JSC February 2011 Health NASA dust-health related project REASoN – PHAiRS ( ) Hot-spot structure of sources Requires hi-res models

WWRP- GAW 6 WWRP JSC February 2011 Comparison with observed values Mean values for 3 locations with observations: 19-22h UTC 00-03h UTC Casa Grande, Stanfield, Cowtown

WWRP- GAW 7 WWRP JSC February 2011 Links between meningitis and dusty weather Project partners: WMO, WHO, GEO, IRI MACC – AEMET & BSC Health MERIT project Sahel region within the meningitis epidemics area BSC dust model – 46 years of dust & weather reanalysis (Perez et al., 2007)

WWRP- GAW 8 WWRP JSC February 2011

WWRP- GAW 9 WWRP JSC February 2011

WWRP- GAW 10 WWRP JSC February 2011 TUNIS (CNN) 7 May, 2002, 17:44 GMT -- An EgyptAir jet crashed on a hillside outside Tunisia's capital, killing 18 people, a government official said… …Weather was foggy and rainy at the time, with sandstorms blowing in from the Sahara Desert.... Aviation

WWRP- GAW 11 WWRP JSC February 2011 Predicted dust load (μg m -2 ) Site of the accident 06 UTC, 7 May hr forecast Predicted cross-section dust concentration (μg m -3 ) 12 UTC, 7 May hr forecast 18 UTC, 7 May hr forecast 06 UTC, 7 May hr forecast 18 UTC, 7 May hr forecast 12 UTC, 7 May hr forecast Tunisian dust storm captured by MODIS Source: Steven D. Miller, NRL, Monterey Features of the case: - Major Mediterranean dust storm - Fast moving system - More than 5 mg m -3 in the elevated dust cloud core! dust

WWRP- GAW 12 WWRP JSC February 2011 Through negative feedback on winds dust kills dust. Perez et al., 2006 Ground cools down by ~5 C during strong SDS and air aloft warms slightly Without aerosol Feedback With aerosol feedback Including interaction dust and radiation can Improve Weather Forecasts In A Regional Model (Nickovic 2002) Dust-radiation interactions

WWRP- GAW 13 WWRP JSC February 2011

WWRP- GAW 14 WWRP JSC February 2011 Can desert dust explain the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly in the UK operational model over the Sahara? Haywood, et al., JGR 2003

WWRP- GAW WWRP JSC February 2011 Assimilation MODIS AOD in ECMWF MACC

WWRP- GAW 16 WWRP JSC February 2011 Assimilation of MACC dust AOD in a regional dust model (WMO South East Regional Climate Centre) Without assimilationWith assimilation

WWRP- GAW 17 WWRP JSC February 2011 D8-NO ASSIMILATIOND8-WITH ASSIMILATION DUST LOAD WET DEPOSITION 04 March 2010 Case of yellow snow observed by visitors in the Kopaonik sky resort (location marked with )

WWRP- GAW 18 WWRP JSC February 2011 Importance of mineral composition in desert soils Fe and P embedded in dust ocean nutrients cloud ice nucleation sensitive to mineral composition Hypothesis: Fe as an enhancement factor in meningitis outbreaks (Thompson, 2008)

WWRP- GAW 19 WWRP JSC February 2011 Clay soils Silt soils Illite Smectite Calcite Quartz Kaolinite Feldspar Quartz Calcite Hematite Fe-containing minerals A(I,J); 4km

WWRP- GAW 20 WWRP JSC February 2011 ATMOSPHERIC IRON PROCESSING

WWRP- GAW 21 WWRP JSC February 2011 Dust is a carrier of the embedded nutrients such as Fe and phosphorus In remote oceans, input of iron in dust dominates other inputs Soluble iron is an essential micronutrient in marine environments SDS-WAS and GESAMP (joint workshop, March 2011) Algae Bloom Canary Islands August 2004 (Ramos et al., 2008) Ocean productivity WMO in GESAMP

WWRP- GAW 22 WWRP JSC February 2011 SolubilityConcentration Horizontal Vertical

WWRP- GAW 23 WWRP JSC February 2011 Saharan Dust And Ice Nuclei Over Central Europe Dust – efficient ice nucleation substance The number concentration of ice nuclei data since January 2008 at the Taunus Observatory DREAM simulations Joint study [Goethe-University group and WMO (Nickovic, Barrie)] combining observations and dust modelling May 2008 case Klein, et al: Saharan Dust And Ice Nuclei Over Central Europe (ACP, 2010)

WWRP- GAW 24 WWRP JSC February May May May 09 DREAM simulation: Dust load and 850 hPa wind streamlines

WWRP- GAW 25 WWRP JSC February 2011 Observations Model

WWRP- GAW 26 WWRP JSC February 2011 ECMWF-dust Homogenization - Data format (GRIB2) - Products - Forecasting range +72h, every 3h - Geographical domain - Lat/Lon - Color palette -... ……N Model BSC-DREAM Homogenization of forecasts Dust aerosol at the surface (mg m -3 ) Dust Aerosol optical depth at 550nm

WWRP- GAW 27 WWRP JSC February 2011 International Cooperative on Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) NAAPS GEOS MACC