Partisanship and Group Voting POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith

Office Hours When – Today – Friday – And by appointment Doyle 226B

Learning Outcomes I Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

Readings Chapter 4: Partisans and Partisan Change (Flanigan) Chapter 5: Social Characteristics of Partisans and Independents (Flanigan)

Partisanship Still the biggest factor in vote choice

The Evolution of the American Party System Comes out of the New Deal Focuses on the Role of Government Does not try to represent specific social classes

Why American Parties are Unique Non Ideological Not Issue Based Not Class Based

Why Not issue Based? Many Issues are Unimportant We adopt issues based on partisanship, not the other way around The Parties do not take clear positions on many issues.

The Goal of American Parties

THE SOCIAL COMPOSITION OF PARTISAN GROUPS Winning by getting group votes

About Partisans Vote More Participate in other forms of politics Vote your way But who are they?

For Groups to Matter It has to be big It has to come out and vote It has to be Loyal

Neither Party Can Rely on a single group Both Parties are Heterogeneous Both Parties Must court independents Both parties move around the spectrum to gain votes.

The Roosevelt/New Deal Coalition The Democratic Key To Success This Breaks apart over time

Group Voting Today For Most Americans No Single social or economic characteristic is a good predictor of Partisanship or voting (two exceptions) The Rise of cross-cutting Factors

Religion Americans tend to be more religious than other Western nations. We belong to churches and go more than other nations

The Change in Religion as a predictor There are many more religious divisions There is an increase in seculars/non-religious Some Religions are very politically active

Jewish Voters The Exception to the Rule Share many Republican characteristics, but are Democratic More liberal than other groups, except on Israel policy Meet all 3 criteria in 2 states

Catholics Still Trend Democratic The Result of political socialization Less homogenous, hence less predictable

Protestants Evangelical Tend to be more Conservative, and more Republican More Rural, Poorer, and Southern More focused on Social Issues Main Line Examples: Episcopalians, Lutherans, Methodists, Presbyterians Declining in number, influence and importance Difficult to Gauge

The Religion Gap

REGION Not as exciting as it once was

Why Region is important It all goes back to Political Socialization We get basic economic and social traits based where live Region is South vs. Non-South in America

The Solid South A key component of the Roosevelt coalition – 11 states of the Confederacy Provided 52% of necessary votes for Wilson in % of the necessary votes for victory in % of Kennedy’s vote in % for Jimmy Carter in 1976 – Crucial for Opportunity Costs for Democratic Candidates- they could spend time in battleground states

Why Region is not as Important Mobility Communications Irrigation and Air Conditioning

Even the South is Less Distinct It is still the most distinct Out-Migration of African Americans More industrialized Influx of Hispanic Voters

SOCIAL CLASS Not That Important

Why not social class The shared belief in equality of opportunity We have never had an appreciable socialist movement People identify with other groups before class

Measuring Social Class We ask people which class they belong to – We are very likely to say middle class Within Social classes there are great variations in income Our partisanship doesn’t change with rising or lowering class.

Social Class and Partisanship Republicans Do better with poor whites in the South Do better with Upper Middle Class voters Historically have done better with Middle Class voters Democrats Do better with poor and working class Do better with the very wealthiest Do better with Union Members

AGE There is a Difference

Not as Big a Deal Age is not as important as other factors in determining partisanship Young voters tend to be less interested in the system Young voters tend to be more Democratic

RACE AND ETHNICITY

The American Electorate Race is more important than class African Americans form a political self- conscious group. And Identify with the Democratic Party

African American Turnout This has increased since the 1960’s African Americans are heavily Democratic Important swing voters in battleground states

Hispanic Voters The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity Increasingly Democratic since 2000 Key in CO, FL, NM