15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 0 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Application of WAFS Products Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Lufthansa System Aeronautics GmbH On behalf of IATA

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 1 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Agenda Introduction Current application of WAFS products UAD – HiRes Trial New WAFS Products – New Opportunities

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 2 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Introduction Safety Passenger Comfort Environmental Impact Economic Other

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 3 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Agenda Introduction Current application of WAFS products UAD – HiRes Trial New WAFS Products – New Opportunities

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 4 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Current application of WAFS products UAD Flight plan and fuel calculation SIGWX as charts and in BUFR code form Dispatcher information and crew briefing

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 5 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Optimization process is separated in horizontal- and vertical forward optimization Current application of WAFS products Supported Optimization criteria: MFT (minimum fuel track) MTT (minimum time track) MCT (minimum cost track) MDT (minimum distance track) Fixed or user defined tracks (predefined routes, OTS-tracks, route definition etc.) Free Flight

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 6 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Current application of WAFS products

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 7 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Meteorological Data Products – Wind Chart

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 8 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Meteorological Data Products – Cross Section

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 9 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Meteorological Data Products – Wind Components

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 10 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Meteorological Data Products – Icing Probability

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 11 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Meteorological Data Products – SIGWX Chart

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 12 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Agenda Introduction Current application of WAFS products UAD – HiRes Trial New WAFS Products – New Opportunities

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 13 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend UAD – HiRes Trial Proposal for UAD improvement (WAFSOPSG/3 2006) vertical resolutionaddition of two levels between FL 300 and 400- (12 hPa-levels + maxwind + tropopause) horizontal resolutionimprovement to 60 km (appr. 0.5 degree) temporal resolutionincrease to 3 hours or less (11 forecasts)

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 14 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend UAD – HiRes Trial HiRes Trial Conclusion: Thinned GRIB as currently used, does lose details of the original forecast A horizontal resolution of degree does not have significant different results than the horizontal resolution of 1.25 degree A temporal resolution of 3 hours does give some differences although this is not remarkable (Reason: the trial was performed in a season with low variation in the atmosphere) Influence of Maxwind and Tropopause level is lower than the statistical standard deviation HiRes-Data is more consistent

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 15 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend UAD – HiRes Trial HiRes Trial Recommendation: Replace Thinned GRIB by a regular grid net Introduce a 3 hourly temporal resolution Keep the horizontal resolution by 1.25 degree in longitude and latitude Add three additional levels between FL240 and FL400 (not included in the project)

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 16 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Agenda Introduction Current application of WAFS products UAD – HiRes Trial New WAFS Products – New Opportunities

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 17 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend New WAFS Products – New Opportunities UAD in GRIB2: Regular grid net 3 hourly temporal resolution Horizontal resolution 1.25 x 1.25 degree in longitude and latitude Add three additional levels between FL240 and FL400

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 18 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend New WAFS Products – New Opportunities Advantages of UAD in GRIB2: No loss of accuracy by thinning the grid Improved description of rapid changes in the atmosphere Improved forecast in the jet stream level band and for drift down No changes in the weather products for dispatcher and pilots

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 19 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend New WAFS Products – New Opportunities Disadvantages of UAD in GRIB2: Longer distribution time More storage capacity required Possible more hardware performance required Possible longer calculation time for optimization New data decoder needed

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 20 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend New WAFS Products – New Opportunities Additional WAFC gridded forecast: icing turbulence cumulonimbus (CB) clouds

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 21 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend New WAFS Products – New Opportunities Icing forecast: Replacement of the simplified icing probability charts by more precise forecasts Consideration of potential icing areas in optimistation for ETOPS flights Once the reliability of the icing forecasts is approved, a reduction of the icing fuel penalties can be requested

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 22 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend New WAFS Products – New Opportunities Turbulence and CB forecast: Improved SIGWX information for dispatcher and pilots Avoidance option in optimisation possible Information also useable in EFB

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 23 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend New WAFS Products – New Opportunities Turbulence Avoidance: Passenger comfort Reduction of turbulence induced incidents with injuries Reduction of aircraft maintenance Avoiding turbulence during planning has no significant impact in fuel, costs and flight time, (Pre-requisit: Forecast is reliable)

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 24 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend New WAFS Products – New Opportunities

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 25 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend New WAFS Products – New Opportunities

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 26 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend New WAFS Products – New Opportunities Turbulence Avoidance: Flying under or over turbulence area Flying around turbulence area Additional fuel in the exampel 300 KG (under) resp KG (around)

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 27 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Thank you for your attention !

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 28 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 29 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 30 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend

MET Services

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 32 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Algorithm to calculate wind component and temperature for a segment Current application of WAFS products

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 33 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Current application of WAFS products The upper air data contain the following flight planning relevant information in a grid resolution of 1.25 x 1.25 degree: hPa 100 Wind, Temperature hPa 150 Wind, Temperature hPa 200 Wind, Temperature hPa 250 Wind, Temperature hPa 300 Wind, Temperature hPa 400 Wind, Temperature hPa 500 Wind, Temperature, rel. Humidity hPa 600Wind, Temperature, rel. Humidity hPa 700 Wind, Temperature, rel. Humidity hPa 850 Wind, Temperature, rel. Humidity Tropopause LevelHeight, Temperature Maxwind LevelHeight, Wind

15th Septmeber 2009 Chart 34 WAFS Workshop – Paris 2009 MET Services, Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Current application of WAFS products TO_WPTFROM_WPTCosts A B C DEP A A E B C G 45 B B E F G G F J E E K H F F H I I I L M H L86JM 119 K O 117 KL109 MQ115 LP118 Q DEST 134 OP136 PDEST 130 DEP DEST J I O Q 30 P 32 F D E G 22 A B C H K L M internal worklist