Multi-scale predictions of right whale (Eubalaena japonica) habitat in the North Pacific and Bering Sea Edward Gregr, SciTech Consulting, Vancouver BC.

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Presentation transcript:

Multi-scale predictions of right whale (Eubalaena japonica) habitat in the North Pacific and Bering Sea Edward Gregr, SciTech Consulting, Vancouver BC John Ford, DFO, Nanaimo, BC Randall Reeves, Okapi Wildlife Associates, St. Anne, PQ Robert Brownell Jr., SWFSC, Monterey, CA Phil Clapham, AFSC, Seattle WA Anchorage, January 24, 2007

Objectives Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat

Objectives Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat

Historic whaling records

Townsend (1935) data N = 7606 Data courtesy Wildlife Conservation Society

Independent variables? RW data are 150 years old … predictors need to have remained relatively constant Bathymetry and derivatives Large scale ocean features (Alaskan gyre, transition zone, Bering Sea fronts) Coarse scale study: –50 x 50 km –seasonal

Large scale ocean features i.e., wind speed Yi Chao, unpublished data 50 x 50 km ROMS circulation model 1950 to 2004 Seasonal climatologies = long term averages

Whaling record analysis Presence-only correlation analysis Predictions of suitable habitat Depends critically on selection of independent variables The first scale in the multi-scale analysis

Objectives Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat

Right whale prey Skim feeding copepod specialist, though also feeds at bottom boundary layer NA and NP right whale very similar animals, but do they have similar feeding habits?

Mackas and Coyle, 2005 Shelf vs. open ocean

Zooplankton community composition and species differences in size may require different foraging strategies. Shelf vs. open ocean Mackas and Coyle, 2005

Processes – an example Crawford et al Meso-scale eddies are now understood to be an important component of oceanic production

Mean [Chl-a] within eddy waters (blue) compared to non-eddy waters (green) Processes - eddies Crawford et al. 2005

Objectives Analysis of historic whaling records to identify potential hotspots for right whales in NP/BS Describe oceanographic processes that effect distribution and abundance of right whale prey Predict distribution of right whale foraging habitat

Multi-scale analysis 1 st scale: - NP; 50 km; seasonal - Yankee whaling data - bathymetry; long-term oceanography 2 nd scale: - BS/NEP; 10 km; monthly - 20 th century sightings - bathymetry; monthly oceanography 3 rd scale: - regional; 1 km; weekly - 21 st century zooplankton - RS data

Deliverables Identify and describe areas of high historic abundance (i.e., hotspots) Extensive GIS-compatible bio-physical data Mechanistic description of concentration and retention processes in the North Pacific and Bering Sea Predictions of contemporary foraging habitat for right whales

Proposed Critical Habitat for North Pacific right whales

Acknowledgements Funded by the North Pacific Research Board Phil Clapham and Bob Brownell for the groundwork Dave Mackas, Lisa Eisner, and Jeff Napp for support with plankton component Yi Chao, Al Hermann, Georgina Gibson for support with physical oceanography Photo: Marilyn Marx Questions, comments:

BASIS Stations Courtesy Lisa Eisner, NMFS Sampled

IOS/OSAP Plankton data calanoid copepods abundance/m 3