ECMWF GEMS Slide 1 Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data: GEMS Tony Hollingsworth

ECMWF GEMS Slide 2 Global Land Ocean Atmosphere MOnitoring from Space ( through Data Assimilation ): GEMS GEMS is an Integrated Project to be proposed to the EU in the context of GMES The goal is to deliver by a comprehensive operational global monitoring system for the state (dynamics and composition) of the atmosphere, ocean, land. The system will be built around existing operational weather and ocean systems. A heavy emphasis will be placed on the use of satellite data.

ECMWF GEMS Slide 3 FP_6 Thematic Priority Areas 1.4 Aeronautics and Space GMES Related area Global Change and Ecosystems OPERATIONAL FORECASTING AND MODELLING, including global climate change observation systems

ECMWF GEMS Slide 4 $25B for New satellite missions in JASON-1 TERRA ENVISATADEOS-II AQUAMSGGPM SSMI/SGOCECOSMIC AURACRYOSAT CALIPSOMETOP CLOUDSATADM

ECMWF GEMS Slide 5 Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data: GEMS GEMS sub-projects -Monitor-GREEHOUSE GASES: Monitor seasonal variations of non-reactive Greenhouse Gases such as CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, CO -Monitor-REACTIVE-GASES: Monitor ozone and its precursors, and sulphate aerosol and its precursors. -Monitor-AEROSOL: Model and assimilate global aerosol information -Monitoring-SYSTEM-INTEGRATION & RETROSPECTIVE REANALYSIS:- Integrate the above projects in a pre-operational system, and validate through retrospective analyses

ECMWF GEMS Slide 6 Overall Structure of the GEMS Project There will be an overall coordinator, and a coordinator for each sub-project -The sub-projects will have a common structure, and a common set of functionalities, which facilitates manageability: -Each sub-project will run as a fairly self-contained module. -Integration will be provided through the discipline of a common software environment With several sub-projects and several functionalities (with some work-sharing) one can accommodate about 25 players (+ ECMWF), each undertaking a substantial task There will be early deliverables and late deliverables. In-situ data will mainly be used for validation, not assimilation -GEMS will benefit from involvement of its players in discipline-specific FP6 projects

ECMWF GEMS Slide 7 Functionalities of the GEMS sub-Projects The assimilation sub-projects have a common structure, and common set of functionalities, -Data Acquisition and Management -Radiative Transfer and /or Product Development -Process Modelling (atmos / ocean / chemistry…) -Specification of Surface Sources / Sinks -Data Assimilation -Validation Most of the sub-projects have a valuable heritage from FP_4 and ongoing FP_5 projects and partnerships.

ECMWF GEMS Slide 8 Considerations on Input Products: Data Acquisition and Management The envisaged resolution of the assimilating model -for the pilot system ~T159 -for the 2008 system ~T319 or higher The baseline input products will be the space agencies meteo products Many of the instruments have pixel sizes ~1km or less, so raw data volumes are huge. For advanced input products we need -producers who can cope with large data volumes. -products which can be up-scaled to the resolution of the assimilating model. Even if ECMWF limits itself to archiving data products with ~50km resolution, the range of data could mean that data volumes at ECMWF may cause concern.

ECMWF GEMS Slide 9 Considerations on Radiative Transfer / Product Development The baseline products will be the space agencies own meteo products. However: -The GHG project will use IASI radiances -The RG project will initially use Agency gas profiles. ECMWF will work on variational use of limb sounding radiances. -Similar considerations apply to the AEROSOL project -The products to be used in the LAND project are not well defined -The products to be used in the OCEAN project will be Dynamics: as the operational seasonal forecast system Ocean colour: whatever is available at present We need an upgrade path from using simple products to more using more advanced methods, benefiting from background information

ECMWF GEMS Slide 10 Considerations on Process Modelling -1 Some Partners will be working in parallel with ECMWF, with their own operational systems, running at their sites We should study carefully the PRISM approach where land, ocean, chemistry, aerosol, modules are externally coupled to the AGCM, rather than integrated in the AGCM. The PRISM approach would facilitate clean comparisons. A scientific limitation of PRISM is that one perhaps could not model some aspects of indirect aerosol effects on clouds. ECMWFs baseline atmosphere / land / ocean will be IFS / TESSEL / ECMWFs long term ocean choice.

ECMWF GEMS Slide 11 Considerations on Process Modelling -2 GHG: -We envisage advecting 4 extra species to exploit AIRS in a 4D-Var framework. RG -MOZART (MPI-Ham) is well validated -MOCAGE (Met-Fr) is flexible and easily coupled to IFS; AEROSOL: -What modules are available? -How many species? -How many characteristics?

ECMWF GEMS Slide 12 Considerations on Specification of Surface Sources / Sinks This is a difficult area. RIVM (NL) have made global emission maps for These can be temporally scaled in simple ways. Norway has a map of European emissions for ~2 years Do we need an effort to estimate biomass burning? Do we need an effort to estimate aerosol formation: over forests? over ocean?

ECMWF GEMS Slide 13 Considerations on Data Assimilation Initially we shall use many different assimilation methods :- -GHG: radiances in atmospheric 4D-Var -RG: initially,univariate 3D-Var for each species / family. What is the RG upgrade path? -AEROSOL: Univariate 3D-Var?

ECMWF GEMS Slide 14 Considerations on Validation This is an essential area of activity -Carbo-Europe will participate with the Euroflux data -GAW world-stations (Mace head, Hohenpeissenberg…) are interested in GHG, RG and AEROSOL -EARLINET can provide lidar verification for AEROSOL profiles

ECMWF GEMS Slide 15 Monitor-GREEHOUSE GASES: Monitor seasonal variations of non-reactive Greenhouse Gases such as CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, CO Heritage: COCO (FP5) Instruments: AIRS, SCIAMACHY, IASI Data MgtECMWF R/TLMD & ECMWF Modelling UKMO Sources / Sinks? Data Assim.ECMWF & UKMO ValidationCarboEurope, MPI-BG, LSCE, F.U.Amst. U.Tuscia, NUI_G

ECMWF GEMS Slide 16 Monitor-REACTIVE-GASES Monitor ozone and its precursors, and sulphate aerosol and its precursors. Heritage: SODA (FP4), ASSET(FP5)…. Instruments: AIRS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS, SEVIRI, OMI, TES Data Mgt R/T Modelling Sources / Sinks Data Assim. Validation

ECMWF GEMS Slide 17 Monitor-AEROSOL: Model and assimilate global aerosol information Heritage: - Instruments: MERIS, MODIS, MISR, SEAWIFS Data Mgttbd R/T Modelling Sources/ Sinks Data Assim. ValidationEARLINET

ECMWF GEMS Slide 18 Monitoring-SYSTEM-INTEGRATION & RETROSPECTIVE REANALYSIS Integrate the above projects in a pre-operational system, and validate through retrospective analyses Heritage: ERA-15, ERA-40 System Integration Issues: -Adoption (from the outset) of the PRISM coupling approach offers a direct way forward to a production system -New developments offering operational benefits (e.g. variational limb sounding) could be moved in-line as they mature -What are the

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ECMWF GEMS Slide 20 CarboEurope Network

ECMWF GEMS Slide 21 GAW Network of world Stations

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