Use of Ensemble Forecast Robert Mureau KNMI Marco Nolet Reading 16 june 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

Use of Ensemble Forecast Robert Mureau KNMI Marco Nolet Reading 16 june 2005

Content Simple EPS verification First guess 5 day forecast New EPS plume product

Simple verification T2m (T00/T12) Ensemble mean Oper Forecaster

Winters 97-04

Summers

T T+132

T T+144

T00 T+228

T12 T+240

Day 5 Tmin dec

Day 5 Tmax Dec Marco Nolet

Tmax

Conclusions verification part No real trends in rms Bias control and ens mean are similar Gap opens at day 3 ? Ensemble mean best deterministic value for money (but very safe)

First guess 5 day forecast

First Guess Table First guess 5 day forecast ( including error margins ) Probabilities of events Special link with probabilities of severe weather events Table internet table

New EPS plot layout

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