Monthly estimates from a practical perspective Experiences from Finnish LFS LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010 Kalle Sinivuori, Statistics Finland

Finnish LFS Monthly sample size is Non-response rate is around 20 % => that means slightly less than interviews per month Computer-assisted questionnaire Most interviews by telephone (2 % face-to face) Panel; five rotation groups Ministry of Employment’s job seeker register is also used as supplementary data in calibration LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Dissemination of results Main LFS results are published monthly, three weeks after the end of the reference month More detailed results are published quarterly Annual publication includes yearly data and time series Database tables In addition web articles on special themes other articles in periodicals and other publications LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Publishing monthly and quaterly figures Publication day (roughly) three weeks after the end of the reference month In March, June, September and December: monthly and quarterly publication together In other months: short publication, only monthly results Monthly: basic indicators (employment and unemployment by sex, age and province; employees by type of employment; seasonally adjusted trends, etc.) Quaterly: basic indicators + employment by industry; employment by province; hours worked by industyry, etc. LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Publishing monthly and quaterly figures Monthly publication XML-based publication including: 18 static html- tables, 4 figures and a quality description. All this in three languages HTML- and pdf-formats In addition: one database table (pc-axis) Quaterly publication XML-based publication including: 25 static html- tables, 4 figures and a quality description. All this in three languages HTML- and pdf-formats In addition: four database tables (pc-axis) LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Table 1. Examples of the accuracy of monthly estimates of different sizes Monthly estimate Monthly estimate's 95% confidence interval Standard error Relative standard error persons % Employed ± , ± , ± , ± , ± , ± , ± ,0 Unemployed ± , ± , ± , ± , ± , ± , ± ,0 LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Table 2. Examples of the accuracy of quarterly estimates of different sizes and comparison to the monthly estimates Monthly / Quarterly estimate Quarterly estimate's 95% confidence interval Monthly estimate's 95% confidence interval persons Employed ± ± ± ± ± 8 800± ± 6 700± ± 4 700± ± 3 900± ± 2 000± Unemployed ± 8 800± ± 6 900± ± 6 100± ± 5 100± ± 3 500± ± 3 100± ± 2 400± LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Policies in publishing monthly figures Additional information: especially trends adjusted for seasonal and random variation Co-operation with the Ministry of Labour’s statistical unit => closer interaction started two years ago. Pre-publication-day meetings => One day before publication we have a meeting where we discuss about possible questions coming from our audience (especially from the media). LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Monthly publishing during the recession Recession in Finland began in late 2008 Annual change in GPD was -2,4 % in last quarter of 2008 Register based unemployment figures (Ministry of Labour) reacted faster, from November LFS figures showed statistically significant annual changes (upwards) starting from February LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Economic growth and employment; 1990/IQ /IVQ LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Monthly publishing during the recession… continue Despite small differences in annual changes, LFS and Ministry of Labour unemployment statistics have shown quite similar results during this recession. Unemployment figures have grown and reasons are same in both statistics => unemployment figures have grown among men, 15 to 24-year-olds, in industries involving men (manufacturing, construction, wholesale) and in areas where these industries are strong (Southern and Western Finland). LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

Discussion Monthly or quartely publication ? => I would say: monthly Why ? Question of profile in national LFS Question of sample size Question of quality => Finnish LFS is good enough for monthly publishing. LFS Methodology Work Shop, Paris 2010

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