State of the Economy Measured Optimism. Noteworthy events since last Symposium Obamacare A Republican Senate ISIS Alibaba public offering Ebola Ukraine.

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Presentation transcript:

State of the Economy Measured Optimism

Noteworthy events since last Symposium Obamacare A Republican Senate ISIS Alibaba public offering Ebola Ukraine Malaysia Airlines’ misfortune Germany wins the World Cup, Brazil humiliated A college football playoff

Energy Prices Plunge Note: Prices shown are through end of day January 11, Comment: Oil prices have declined by 60% over the past 6 months and by 50% in just the past three months.

Comment: It has taken 5 years but we have achieved neutral.

Comment: Real GDP growth has been solid four of the last five quarters. The poor first quarter of 2014 is usually attributed to bad weather. Comment: The weakness of the hosing market in 2014 is reflected in the contribution to GDP growth by Residential Fixed Investment.

Comment: Prices have remained quite stable for the last three years. Comment: Disposable Personal Income has shown little growth over the past two years.

Comments: With the exception of Q1 in 2014, retail sales have been steady for the past three years.

Comment: Unemployment rate has shown a steady decline for 2014.

Comment: Nov 2014 and Nov 2013 numbers are very similar was disappointing.

Comment: The index remains positive though not strongly positive.

Comment: Long-term unemployment showed significant improvement in Median Duration (weeks, not seasonally adjusted) declined from 17.5 to 13.0.

Comment: Wells Fargo forecasts modest GDP, retail sales and disposable income growth. Prices and interest rates projected to remain low.