The Macroeconomic and Structural Implications of a Once-in-a-Lifetime Boom in the Terms of Trade David Gruen 24 November 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

The Macroeconomic and Structural Implications of a Once-in-a-Lifetime Boom in the Terms of Trade David Gruen 24 November 2011

2 Terms of trade Note: The Budget forecasts are used for the assumed future evolution of the terms of trade. Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury.

3 Terms of trade Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June The Budget forecasts are used for the assumed future evolution of the terms of trade. Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury.

4 Nominal value of the $A (TWI) Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June Source: RBA and Treasury.

5 Growth in non-farm GDP Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury.

6 Consumer prices Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury.

7 Male average weekly earnings (total earnings, all employees) Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury.

8 Australian government general government expenditure (deviations from year 1) Note: Year 1 is the financial years and Source: Final Budget Outcome and Budget.

9 Unemployment rate Note: Quarter 0 is June 1970 and June Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury.

10 Mining and non-mining investment Source: ABS Catalogue Numbers , and Treasury.

11 Sectoral shares Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury.

12 Sectoral contributions to GDP growth Source: ABS Catalogue Numbers , and Treasury.

13 Sectoral growth rates (three-year centred moving average) Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury.

14 Distribution of unemployment across the country Note: Each point on the scatter plot represents the weighted average and weighted standard deviation of regional unemployment for a particular quarter between Sep-1998 and Jun The weighted average unemployment rates for all SLAs differ slightly from those estimated in ABS Source: DEEWR Small Area Labour Market database and Treasury Dispersion Average unemployment rate Sep-03(start of mining boom) Sep-98 Jun-11 Mar-08

The Macroeconomic and Structural Implications of a Once-in-a-Lifetime Boom in the Terms of Trade David Gruen 24 November 2011