INDIANA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2015 Michael J. Hicks, Ph.D. George & Frances Ball Distinguished Professor of Economics

UNITED STATES 2015 Forecast

U.S. GDP Quarterly Growth Note: GDP for 2014Q3 was recently revised to 3.9% from 3.6%. GDP for 2014Q4-2015Q4 is the author’s estimate.

U.S. Quarterly Forecasts U.S. Forecast Real GDP Growth Unempl. Rate Unemployed Workers (# persons) Job Creation: Avg Monthly Change (# jobs) Job Creation: Qrtly Change (# jobs) 2015Q1 (Jan, Feb, Mar) 2.7%5.9%10,015,710+93, , Q2 (Apr, May, Jun) 2.6%5.9%10,043, , , Q3 (Jul, Aug, Sep) 2.8%5.8%10,045, , , Q4 (Oct, Nov, Dec) 2.9%5.7%10,039, , ,263

U.S. Business Cycles Length of Decline and Growth Periods

U.S. Debt as a Share of GDP

INDIANA 2015 Forecast

Indiana Quarterly Forecasts 2015 Indiana ForecastGDP GrowthPersonal Income Growth 2015Q1 (Jan, Feb, Mar)3.3%3.4% 2015Q2 (Apr, May, Jun)3.4%3.3% 2015Q3 (Jul, Aug, Sep)3.4%3.3% 2015Q4 (Oct, Nov, Dec)3.4%3.3%

Indiana Employment & Labor Force

Indiana Layoff Data

Indiana Construction Employment

State Industry Forecasts for 2015 IndustryIndiana Mining0.1% Construction1.1% Durable goods mfg3.6% Nondurable goods mfg3.1% Retail3.2% Utilities2.1% Wholesale2.7% Transportation2.7% Health care1.3% Information services0.9% Finance, insurance, real estate2.2% Government0.2%

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