Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 ECMWF medium range forecasts and products Model changes (Medium Range) Forecast performance New products/ Future developments F. Lalaurette, ECMWF, MetOps

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Changes to the medium range forecasting system 29 June 2004: Cy28r2 (early delivery suite) By shifting the 12h 4Dvar data assimilation window by 6h, and running an early additional, uncycled 6h 4Dvar, operational products are disseminated around 4h earlier without any noticeable impact on the forecast quality. 29 September 2004: Cycle 28r3 Revised convection scheme numerics and calling of the cloud scheme, use of tangent linear and adjoint of vertical diffusion in the 1st minimization of 4D-Var, Reduction of radiation frequency to 1 hour in the high-resolution forecasts, Improved numerics of surface tile coupling New Radiative Tranfer code (RTTOV-8), minor revisions to ATOVS and AIRS usage, assimilation of MSG clear-sky radiances, of GOES 9 BUFR AMVs and of SCIAMACHY ozone products from KNMI, Correct error in AMSU-B usage over land, Activate EARS data Blacklist SYNOP humidity data at local night time, Increased use of radiosonde humidity: use RS90 to -80C, RS80 to -60C, other sensors to -40 C. Proper cycling of the assimilation of the wave altimeter and land surface data (FG moved from 00 and 12 UTC to 06 and 18 UTC) EPS Gaussian sampling for extra-tropical singular vectors, instead of selection and rotation, revision of tropical cyclones (TC) perturbations (extension from 25 S 25 N to 40 S 40 N, orthogonalisation with respect to extra-tropical singular vectors, optimisation regions based on predicted TC tracks from previous EPS run)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Changes to the medium range forecasting system 7 October 2004 Monthly forecasts are run operationally on a weekly basis (Thursdays). 9 November 2004: All four BC-project analyses use background fields generated from the latest operational 4D-var analysis 16 March 2005 : Tropical Cyclone tracks from the Deterministic and EPS forecasts are disseminated on the GTS in BUFR format;

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Changes to the medium range forecasting system 5 April 2005: Cy29r1 New moist boundary layer scheme (more stratocumulus clouds in subtropical highs and more low level clouds in some extratropical winter conditions); Wavelet formulation introduced in the representation of background error statistics (Jb), the tuning of which has been based on Data Assimilation ensemble runs; Revised use of surface pressure observations: METAR are activated; all surface pressure data are subject to an adaptative bias correction; observation error are reduced; PAOB observations are not used any more; MODIS winds from AQUA are activated (only TERRA before); AQUA winds observation error is reduced; 10 AIRS channels are blacklisted (pb strato. Humidity); Bugfix in the first time step of the semi-Lagrangian treatment of the physics was fixed; snow cover tile coupling has been revised; a new dissipation source function has been introduced for the oceanic wave modelisation; several technical implementation for the assimilation of rain, of GPS data and for the variational bias correction of satellite radiances introduced but not activated Nonlinear Normal Mode Initialisation for the EPS has been discontinued.

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 ECMWF medium range forecasts and products Model changes (Medium Range) Forecast performance Long term evolution Winter performance Tropical Cyclones and Heavy Rain New products/ Future developments F. Lalaurette, ECMWF, MetOps

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 EPS spread/ Error

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 EPS spread/ Error

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Time series (N.Extratropics)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Time series (Europe)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Winter 2005 vs (Europe, Z500, ANC)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Winter 2005 vs (ET NH, Z500, ANC)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Winter 2005 vs previous winters T511 vs EPS Mean (Europe, T850, Day 7)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Gains - ECMWF (Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Gains - Exeter (Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Gains - NCEP (Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Gains - DWD (Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Predictability variations (courtesy M. Köhler and A. Ghelli)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Waves vs other centres (Courtesy J. Bidlot)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 New web pages (TCs)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June TC history

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 TC Verification 2004 (Atlantic ocean)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 TC Verification (2004, all basins)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 TC Verification (2003, all basins) 2004 vs 2003: Reduced gap T255 vs T511 Except for pressure?

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 TC Probabilities verification

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Extreme Forecast Index Verification (1% extreme events defined with respect to EUMETNET/ECSN Climate Atlas of Europe data)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Probability >20mm verification (1% extreme events defined with respect to EUMETNET/ECSN Climate Atlas of Europe data)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Verification summary Outstanding performance from previous years is confirmed Some problems with low level clouds First steps in verifying Severe Weather forecasts Tropical Cyclone forecasts have improved significantly last year Still core pressure is underestimated Slow biais Some over-confidence in Strike Probability Maps; useful guidance First steps towards EFI verification have been taken

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 ECMWF medium range forecasts and products Model changes (Medium Range) Forecast performance New products/ Future developments F. Lalaurette, ECMWF, MetOps

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Seamless system The planned merge at increased resolution of the EPS and Monthly forecast system in 2005/06 will mean some re-thinking () of the product generation Unified EPSgrams More weather-related monthly forecast maps Monthly-forecast-like hindcasts for the medium-range

Forecast users meeting Reading, June TC history

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Extended EPSgram (courtesy Mark Rodwell)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Extended EPSgram (courtesy Mark Rodwell)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 New Monthly forecast maps (courtesy F. Grazzini) Day 5-11 Day 12-18

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 New Medium range Hindcasts (à la Monthly) Running an additional EPS control suite in dynamical adaptation mode (48h forecast) Initial conditions from ERA40 ( ) Use latest resolution/ physics Same post-processing as for EPS (surface + a few pressure and PV levels) Cost is only like adding six 10-days Control runs per day Will allow a quick adaptation of the EFI to the increased EPS resolution in autumn, and an extension of the EFI (and other calibrated probabilistic products) to other parameters than rain, T2m and wind

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 New EPS Control climate (Reading, 15/1) (courtesy E. Zsóter) EPS Forecast Current EPS climate 30-years 48h hindcasts (+/-15 days)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Global EFI maps

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Tropical Cyclogenesis: 1) Karl CYCLONE LIFETIME : TO OBSERVATION TRACKING FOR KARL (12L) 1 (TD)2 (TS)3 (STS) 4 (TYP/HUR)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Tropical Cyclogenesis: 1) Karl 1 st strike probability map (17/9)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Tropical Cyclogenesis: 2) Karl D5 forecast Valid UTC 10°N 20°N 40°W OBSERVATION POSITION and STRENGTH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KARL ( 12L ) Estimated Core Pressure 994 hPa UTC ECMWF FC t+120 VT: UTC Surf:msl/10v (Exp: 0001 ) 1 (TD)2 (TS)3 (STS) 4 (TYP/HUR)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Tropical Cyclogenesis: 3) Karl Feature tracking (no seed, Hodges, 1994) Observation (24/9)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 FRANCES (25/8-7/9)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Frances: 1 st strike probability map (26/9)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 Frances verification (D4 forecast)

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 FRANCES Feature tracking

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 And more… Data monitoring New verification package

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005 (from )

Forecast users meeting Reading, June 2005