Slide 1 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 1 ECMWF medium-range forecasts and products David Richardson Met Ops Section, Jean Bidlot, Mark Rodwell, Roberto Buizza

Slide 2 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 2 Atmospheric data assimilation 4-dimensional variational data assimilation at 25/80 km resolution and 91 levels Atmospheric global forecasts Forecast to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 25 km resolution and 91 levels 50-member ensemble to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 50 km resolution, 62 levels Ocean wave forecasts Global forecast to ten days from 00 and 12 UTC at 50 km resolution European waters forecast to five days from 00 and 12 UTC at 25 km resolution Monthly forecasts: Atmosphere-ocean coupled model Global ensemble to one month (weekly) 125 km, 62 level atmosphere; 1°, 29 level ocean Seasonal forecasts: Atmosphere-ocean coupled model Global ensemble to six months (monthly): 200 km, 40 level atmosphere; 1°, 29 level ocean ECMWF Operational Forecast System

Slide 3 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 3 Changes to the forecasting system 2005 – Apr 2005Cy29r1 New moist boundary layer scheme, wavelet Jb, adaptive bias correction 28 Jun 2005Cy29r2 Wide range of changes including rain- affected SSM/I radiances 1 Feb 2006 Cy30r1 High resolution forecasting system Harmonisation of data availability times 14 Mar 20064d-Var for all BC suite analyses

Slide 4 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 4 Medium-range forecast performance

Slide 5 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 5 Time series Acc=0.6 N Hemisphere

Slide 6 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 6 Time series Acc=0.6 S Hemisphere

Slide 7 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 7 Time series Acc=0.6 Europe

Slide 8 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 8 Spring 2006 (MAM) over Europe

Slide 9 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 9 Comparison with other centres

Slide 10 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 10 Time series Z500 N Hemisphere

Slide 11 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 11 Time series Z500 N Hemisphere

Slide 12 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 12 Other centres Z500 N hem 2006 v 2005

Slide 13 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 13 Other centres Z500 Europe 2006 v 2005

Slide 14 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 14 Consistency of high resolution forecast

Slide 15 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 15 Forecast consistency

Slide 16 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 16 Forecast consistency

Slide 17 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 17 Forecast consistency

Slide 18 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 18 Weather parameters – this afternoon

Slide 19 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 19 Waves

Slide 20 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 20 Wave analysis – scatter index

Slide 21 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 21 Wave forecast – scatter index

Slide 22 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 22 Waves – other centres

Slide 23 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 23 Ensemble Prediction System - this afternoon (Roberto Buizza)

Slide 24 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 24 Brier Skill Score for Europe for 96h EPS forecast of precipitation exceeding various thresholds

Slide 25 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 25 A diagnostics for the EPS spread (standard deviation of Gaussian) is now available on the internal web site. Problems similar to the one in May 2005 could be identified and corrected EPS spread/skill

Slide 26 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 26 Diagnostic tool: Standard deviation of gaussian problematic forecast

Slide 27 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 27 Reading plume for UTC run

Slide 28 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 28 Future developments

Slide 29 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 29 VAREPS (2006) Plan to extend forecast range of EPS to day 15 Two additional fixed-resolution calibration forecasts will be run Current products to day 10 will be unaffected T799 deterministic will remain as now (days 1-10 only) # fcday 0-10day VAR-CF1TL399TL255 VAR-PF50TL399TL255 CL-HRES1TL399 CL-LRES1TL255

Slide 30 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 30 VAREPS Initial implementation No changes required to access products to day 10 Individual EPS members archived to day 15 Straightforward to access days (note resolution change at day 10!) No change required to MARS requests or EMOSLIB (current version: cy281) First post-processed products Ensemble mean and spread (standard deviation) to day 15 Calculate on model grid (was 1.5 degree lat-lon) Probabilities extended to day 15 (same thresholds as now) Longer term EPS products to day 15 will be developed 15-day VAREPS will be combined with the monthly system (coupling with ocean model)

Slide 31 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 31 Products

Slide 32 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 32 ECMWF Forecast Products Global forecasts (deterministic) Fields (Model variables, GRIB) Time series (BUFR Meteograms) Direct Model Output (DMO) only EPS Fields (GRIB) + Time Series (BUFR EPSGRAMs) Post-processed products (Clusters, Tubes, EFI) Monthly and seasonal forecasts: atmosphere-ocean coupled model Anomalies (Field + Time series)

Slide 33 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 33 EPS forecasts: timeseries (EPSgram) EPSgram for Reading Base Tue 14/06/06 00UTC

Slide 34 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 34 EPS forecasts (post-processed products) Extreme forecast index for 2m temperature Base Sat 10/06/06 00UTC, Valid Wed 14/06/06 12UTC

Slide 35 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 35 Medium-range forecast products Global Extreme Forecast Index Indicates areas where todays EPS has signal of extreme relative to model climate distribution New EFI climatology introduced with high-resolution system Verification against observations has started More this afternoon Tropical cyclone tracks More realistic structure in higher resolution system Indication of reduction in position and intensity errors 2006 Atlantic season started (Alberto) … EPSgrams – combine deterministic and EPS forecasts

Slide 36 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 36 Tropical Storm Alberto

Slide 37 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 37 Forecasts of Katrina for Monday 29 Aug. 12 UTC observed pressure 922 hPa T511T799 t+36 t+72

Slide 38 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 38 Position error in high resolution T799 is smaller at all forecast steps compared to the T511. T511L60 T799L91 Deterministic Scores – T511 vs T799

Slide 39 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 39 The intensity of tropical cyclones is more realistic in the T799. T511L60 T799L91 Deterministic Scores – T511 vs T799

Slide 40 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 40 Combined prediction system development Mark Rodwell

Slide 41 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 41 Highly useful product but… What should I believe? At D+2 At D+5 CPS - Motivation Mumbai

Slide 42 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 42 CPS – Concept Combining a 10-member ensemble of equally likely members (orange squares) with a single more accurate forecast (yellow rectangle)

Slide 43 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 43 CPS – Results

Slide 44 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 44 CPS – Weights

Slide 45 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 45 CPS – Meteogram Mumbai

Slide 46 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 46 CPS – Meteogram Mumbai

Slide 47 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 47 ECMWF visits to Member and Co-operating States Autumn 2005 – spring 2006

Slide 48 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 48 Member State visits – comments (1) Generally very happy with ECMWF products High resolution system introduced halfway through this round of visits How is consistency of T799 model? No significant change from previous model ECMWF boundary conditions for limited area models Some requests for hourly updates (currently 3-hourly) Discussed at TAC BC subgroup and TAC 2005; agreed not to change High-impact weather early warnings (medium-range) We are still interested in feedback and examples, especially of how ECMWF products may be useful

Slide 49 Forecast Products User Meeting June 2006 Slide 49 Member State visits – comments (2) Big range of use for the EPS (internal; specific users; general public) Clusters – some use ECWF clusters, some do own clustering ECMWF clustering needs updating Request for extra area EPSgrams – noted requests for additional parameters (H/M/L cloud, wind) How should the EPS be used? How can EPS be used together with T799? Increasing interest in monthly forecasts Interest in potential of seasonal forecasts