Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Ferenc Wantuch Hungarian Meteorological Service Kitaibel P. u. 1. H-1024 Budapest

Talk outline Introduction Verification Two interesting case studies New products based on ECMWF.

Data flow and structure NWP data source: File format: GRIB BUFR Visualisation Netcdf file format Code generalisation process

NWPoutput Code generalisation by the help of different method (PP, MOS) visibility forecast, max, min temperatures cloudiness,... Forecast text generator program End users Text and data Control Verification Forecasteroutput

Verification A Complex Score was defined. 100%0% Min/Max temperatureRMSE0 °C8 °C Precip. ExistencePC100%0% Precip. AmountMAE0 kateg.1.6 kateg. Average Wind SpeedRMSE0 m/s6 m/s Wind GustRMSE0 m/s10 m/s Cloud CoverRMSE0 okta6 okta Complex Score-100 %0 % Weight Temperature 25+25% Precipitation 22,5% Wind 10% Cloud Cover 17,5% , , TminTmaxP.ExistP.AmountyÁv.WindlWind gustCloud Covert %

1.night.1.day2.day3.day4.day5.day6.day MAE (°C) MAE (°C) Prec.Exist.: PC (%) Prec. amount: MAE Verification 2004 (Hungary) ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster Tmax: Tmin:

1.night.1.day2.day3.day4.day5.day6.day Average wind speed: MAE (m/s) Gust: MAE (m/s) cloud cover : MAE (okta) Complex Score (%) Verification results 2004 (Hungary) ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster Felhőzet: Verification results and trends

Complex Score for the first day júl – dec. (Country mean) ALADIN ECMWF Synoptic second period: changes in ECMWF algorithm + model upgrade: 60 => 40 km) Feb.: Anticyclon with snow surface, ALADIN is unsuccesfull December cold air pad

Minimum Temperature sesonal ME and RMSE (2001 – 2004 Hungary mean) ME: seasonal RMSE: slowly decrease EC + Forecaster:

Complex Score for the first day in 2004-ben (country mean) ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster ~30%-correction in (cold air pad) inversion situation

Case study I. : Inversion and cold air pad. (2004. December ) Stratus (cloud base m, surface temperature –1, -3 C Tops of mountains are clear MSG comp321 sat. picture UTC and observations ECMWF model forecast. 12 UTC-re dec The last ECMWF prediction SKC is predicted

okt. 1.okt. 8. okt. 15.okt. 22.okt. 29. nov. 5. nov. 12.nov. 19.nov. 26. dec. 3. dec. 10.dec. 17.dec. 24.dec. 31. (okta) ALEC F Cloud cover verification. ECMWF - ALADIN – Forecaster (1st day) October – November – December V

Case study II. : Flash flood in Matra Mountains. ( ) The ECMWF model involved the possibility of extreme precipitation

Succesful MM5 modell forecast based on ECMWF initial condition. Case study II.

New clusterisation method and early time torch construction depend on ECMWF at HMS. Varying number of clusters for the Carpathian Basin Torch construction before the dissemination time.

New torch diagrams and probability forecasts for energetic sector. 925 hPa,850 hPa,700 hPa, wind direction,relativ hum.,temperture,… torches Probablilty forecasts

Post processing application. Program demonstration Internet and business application End

Thank you for attention !