Commercial services A few examples on the use of ECMWF-data at marked.met.no ECMWF Product Users Meeting Reading June 14-16, 2006 Head of Meteorology and Research Erik Hagemark Project meteorologist media Niklas B.Sondell

Presentation overview Commercial services – who are we? Innovative use of ECWMF-products: Maritime operations planning tool ”MOP”, based on 10-day forecasts from EC-op and EC EPS 3 week forecasts, based mainly on the Monthly Forecasting System.

Commercial services – who are we? Leading service provider in Norway. Strong position within the maritime, media, transportation and energy markets. Specialists in product development/value add Meteorologists, programmers and salesstaff. ’Separated’ from the official duties of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Profitable, no subsidies.

Commercial services – who are we? We pay the max price to ECMWF (EUR 140.000) Currently 34 employees, and growing

A Marine Operations Planning tool ECMWF Product Users Meeting Commercial services A Marine Operations Planning tool ”MOP” ECMWF Product Users Meeting Reading June 14-16, 2006

Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP” An interactive web-based tool for combining operations criteria and weather data. The program can be run in 2 modes Hindcast mode using statistics Forecast mode using ECMWF-data (op and EPS) Suitable for riggmoves, maintenance, supply logistics and survey and so on…

Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP” MARSIM GUI User defines operation Results: wait time/completion time Hindcast data EPS data Program Courtesy Dr.A.K Magnusson, marked.met.no

”MOP” - description Highly advanced tool with an interactive interface in which the user can enter and alter: weather dependent criteria type and duration of operations vessels involved Output is given as Average waiting time Total completion time Plot of cummulative probability

Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP” Main window (edit mode)

”MOP” – output examples Average waiting time (hindcast mode)

”MOP” – output examples Average waiting time (forecast mode)

Commercial services A 3-week forecast using the ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System ECMWF Product Users Meeting Reading June 14-16, 2006

3-week forecasts First issued late Nov 2005, operational from March 2006 Derived from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System The last week (week 4) is not included due to low skill Updated weekly Several languages available

3-week forecasts - description Main focus on weather regimes, and when regimes are changing. Hovmoeller Diagram and Weather Regime Clusterisation. In many cases we adapt the anomalies to better fit the weather regime. The anomalies derived directly from the model are not always accurate because of the coarse resolution in the model. The forecast is also used by the forecaster as an input in our 10 day forecast issued daily.

3-week forecasts - verification March 2006 to date, showing precipitation and temperature. Proven skill in forecasting colder/warmer and drier/wetter than normal. Low skill in forecasting the exact anomaly.

3-week forecasts and energy trading Powerful tool when applied in connection with energy trading Proven skill when compared to forward contracts at Nordpool Max return on the 8th trading day Used: forwards for the middle-kWh-price, third quarter 2006

Thank you!! Visit us at: www.marked.met.no Correspondance: erik.hagemark@met.no, niklas.sondell@met.no