Meteorological Training Course Horst Böttger ECMWF Head of Met Division Operations Department

ECMWF IN A FEW FIGURES Member States: 18 Co-operating States: 7 Employees: 220 Age: 28 years

Member States Austria Luxembourg Belgium Netherlands Denmark Norway Finland Portugal France Spain Germany Sweden Greece Switzerland Ireland Turkey Italy United Kingdom Co-operation agreements or working arrangements with: Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Iceland Slovenia Serbia & Montenegro Romania WMO EUMETSAT ACMAD JRC CTBTO (INPE)

Organisation of ECMWF COUNCIL DIRECTOR D. Burridge Policy Advisory Committee 7-18 Members Scientific Advisory Committee 12 Members COUNCIL 18 Member States Technical Advisory Committee 18 Members Finance Committee 7 Members DIRECTOR D. Burridge (UK) Advisory Committee of Co-operating States 6 Members Advisory Committee on Data Policy 8-18 Members Operations D. Marbouty (France) Administration G. Schultes (Germany) Research P. Bougeault (France) Computer Division W. Zwieflhofer (Austria) Meteorological Division H. Böttger (Germany) Model Division M. Miller (UK) Data Division A. Simmons (UK) Probabilistic Forecasting and Diagnostics Division T. Palmer (UK)

ECMWF Budget 2003 GNP Scale 2003 Revenue 2003 Member States’ contributions £24,618,500 Hungary, Iceland, Croatia, Slovenia, Czech Republic £299,400 £24,917,900 Spain 6.47% Germany 22.73% France 15.80% Luxembourg 0.20% Greece 1.37% Denmark 1.87% Ireland 0.85% Belgium 2.78% Italy 12.78% United Kingdom 16.23% Netherlands 4.33% Turkey 2.21% Sweden 2.62% Other revenue £820,400 Norway 1.71% Finland 1.38% Austria 2.24% Switzerland 3.08% Staff contributions to pensions and insurance £732,600 Tax on staff salaries £3,436,400 Portugal 1.22% GNP Scale 2003 Total revenue (£29,907,300)

ECMWF Objectives Operational Medium Range forecasting up to 10 days ahead (including waves) with emphasis put on severe weather R & D activities in forecast modelling Data archiving and related services Operational seasonal forecasting up to 6 months ahead Provision of supercomputer resources Assistance to WMO programmes Management of Regional Meteorological Data Communications Network (RMDCN)

ECMWF – other activities Reanalyses (ERA-15, ERA-40) Boundary conditions for LAM Data Services Provision of archival data and products Provision of software

Computer configuration - August 2003

Phase 3 of the IBM HPCF Two identical clusters with 68 p690++ servers each Nodes for user work: Each cluster has 66 32-processor servers for user work 6 of the servers in each cluster have 128 GB memory All other nodes have 32 GB memory Processors (Power4+) run at 1.9 GHz (7.6 gigaflops peak) ~25 terabytes of disk per cluster p-Series High Performance Switch (4 links per server) Nodes for I/O and networking 2 p690++ servers, each partitioned into several smaller nodes The number of nodes is an estimate and could go up or down depending on the results of the performance test

ECMWF model scores 1981-2003

Northern Hemisphere Winter 2003/04 Winter 2002/03 Comparison of ECMWF forecast performance with other NWP centres (Z500 Anomaly correlation) previous winter (left) and last winter 2003/04 (right)

Number of used observational data MODIS winds GOES WV rad Add. HIRS NOAA17 QuikSCAT Red. Thinning ATOVS Meteosat WV rad SBUV & GOME

Number of observational data used in the ECMWF assimilation system (with AIRS) 3.6 millions millions

WMO scores: Northern Hemisphere Day 6 Day 4 Day 2

Anomaly correlations of 500hPa height forecasts Ops 1980 Ops 1980 Ops 2001 Ops 2002/3 ERA 2001 Ops 1980 Ops 2001 ERA 2001 Northern Hemisphere %

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Point of interest for the research community Availability of ERA-40 Data server providing on-line free access for research and education ERA-15 Demeter ERA-40 ENACT BUFR/CREX and GRIB encoding-decoding software freely downloadable on-line External policy adopted

ERA-40 400 GB 2.5 degree GRIB or netCDF

Summary of the strategy for ECMWF 1999-2008 A Strategy for ECMWF for the period 1999 to 2008 was adopted unanimously by the ECMWF Council in June 1999. In summary: Goals The prime long-term goal of the Centre’s research and operational activity for the period 1999-2008 is to deliver operational medium-range weather forecasts of increasingly high quality and scope over the range from three to ten days and beyond. A complementary long-term goal is to establish, deliver and improve a reliable operational seasonal forecasting capability.

The forecast and data assimilation system Make full use of data from new satellite (AIRS, SEVIRI, IASI) Extract information on cloud, precipitation and related dynamics Refine the treatment of land and ocean surface, boundary layer and hydrological cycle Increase the resolution: Vertical resolution from 60 to 91 levels Deterministic fc and 4D-Var outer loop from 40 to 25 km (T799) Ensemble forecast (EPS) from 80 to 50 km (T399) Seasonal forecasting from 200 to 125 km

The ensemble system Weekly running of the monthly forecast Develop a “seamless” ensemble forecast system across a range of timescale, e.g. T399(50 km) to D+7 twice daily continue once a day at T255(80 km) to D+15 continue twice a week at T159(123 km) to D+30, in coupled mode Moist singular vector Ensemble data assimilation

The seasonal forecasting system Europe in a leading position to develop a multi-model operational seasonal forecasting system: Started with with UK Met Office model Continues with Météo-France ECMWF recognised as a global producer in the WMO system under development Develop System 3 (125 km resolution) New Ocean model Extend to 12 months

Operational targets Development of the monitoring activities Satellite date In support of EUCOS Timeliness of dissemination Development of severe weather products: Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) Tropical Cyclone Floods Worldwide RMDCN

Other developments Environmental Monitoring (GMES): CO2 Other non reactive gases Reactive gases Aerosols IFS for climate runs Grid computing