Copyright Shikhar Sarin 2011 Pre-Market Forecasting of Innovations (HDTV Case) - Preview EMBA 512 – Assessing Business Opportunities Professor Shikhar Sarin, Ph.D. Boise State University

Long Range Forecasting (...is really hard!) “The phonograph... is not of any commercial value.” --Thomas Edison, 1880 “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” --Lord Kelvin, president of the British Royal Society, 1895 “A severe depression like that of is outside the range of probability.” --The Harvard Economic Society, 1929 “I think there is a world market for about five computers.” --Thomas Watson, IBM chairman “We don’t like their sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out.”-- Decca Recording Co. executive on why they turned down the Beatles, 1962 “With over fifty foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market for itself.” - -Business Week, 1968 “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, president, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 Source: Hutchinson (Wharton) Copyright Shikhar Sarin 2011

Scenarios: Bound the Future Present Future S1 S4 S2 S3 S5 Possible Future Worlds SOURCE: Schoemaker, Paul J. H. (1995); Hutchinson (Wharton)

Copyright Shikhar Sarin 2011 Scenario Analysis Drivers of Change Key UncertaintiesBasic Trends Rules of Interaction Multiple Scenarios SOURCE: Schoemaker, Paul J. H. (1995)

Copyright Shikhar Sarin 2011 Scenario Analysis: Key Success Factor Matrix Scenarios Adoption Drivers/ 2 Barriers 3. Analogies SOURCE: Schoemaker, Paul J. H. (1995) Key Success Factors Target Tech