Copyright © SRC 2012 Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme Mark Johnston and Elaine Qualtiere Saskatchewan Research Council 15 February 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

Copyright © SRC 2012 Forestry Component of the PRAC Terrestrial Theme Mark Johnston and Elaine Qualtiere Saskatchewan Research Council 15 February 2012

Copyright © SRC 2012  Alberta SRD: – Literature review of climate change impacts on southern boreal forests (complete) – Study of fire season length, wind speed and atmospheric moisture (ongoing)  Manitoba Conservation Forestry Branch – Vulnerability assessment for the Sandilands area in SE MB – Summary of climate change scenarios for Sandilands area of southeastern MB  Saskatchewan Environment Forest Service – Island Forests Vulnerability Assessment – Impacts of climate change on IF wood supply Overview of Forestry Activities and Case Studies

Copyright © SRC 2012  Report focused on Forest Fringe  Applies generally to southern boreal forests in the prairie region  Includes impacts on ecosystem services; risk assessment; and adaptation options AB SRD: Literature Review

Copyright © SRC 2012 AB SRD: Climate Change and Forest Fires ScenarioModel2020s2050s2080s A1BCGCM17.6± ± ±5.0 Hadley17.6± ± ±6.1 IPSL18.1± ± ±6.5 A2CGCM17.5± ± ±6.0 Hadley17.2± ± ±6.6 IPSL18.4± ± ±6.2 B1CGCM17.2± ± ±5.1 Hadley17.4± ± ±5.6 IPSL18.2± ± ±5.9 Change in Fire Season Length Relative to the Average (days)

Copyright © SRC 2012  Forestry Branch is conducting a vulnerability assessment to explore potential impacts of climate change on forest management in the Sandilands provincial forest (southeastern Manitoba).  The guidebook developed through the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (CCFM) is being used as a reference for the assessment.  The assessment will identify potential adaptation options and will establish a vulnerability assessment tool that can be applied to other areas within the province.  SRC has generated climate forecasts which are being used to assess anticipated climate change impacts. MB Conservation: Climate Change

Copyright © SRC 2012 MB Conservation: Climate Change MUVariableSeasonYearsMinMaxMeanTif_Files 24Mean Max Temp (ºC)ANNUAL MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_ANNU AL.TIF 24Mean Max Temp (ºC)AUTUMN MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_AUTU MN.TIF 24Mean Max Temp (ºC)SPRING MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SPRI NG.TIF 24Mean Max Temp (ºC)SUMMER MEAN_MAX_TEMP_1971_2000_SUMMARY_SUM MER.TIF Excel look-up tables showing climate variables for current and future time slices linked to maps

Copyright © SRC 2012 MU 24

Copyright © SRC 2012 Multiple Vulnerabilities of Saskatchewan’s Island Forests Under Climate Change

Copyright © SRC 2012

 Broad scale landscape model designed to simulate forest succession and disturbances – Succession – Disturbance – Seed dispersal – Forest management – Carbon dynamics – Climate change affects What is LANDIS-II? Wind Fire Cohort Biomass Insects Spatially Interactive Landscape Harvest

Copyright © SRC 2012 Results – Total Biomass (yr 50)

Copyright © SRC 2012 Results – Total Biomass (yr 100)

Copyright © SRC 2012 LANDIS – Future Fire

Copyright © SRC 2012 Changes in Forest types Non-ForestSoft woodHardwoodMuskeg

Copyright © SRC 2012  Used a forest ecosystem model (PnET) to produce estimates of annual biomass production (NPP)  Converted NPP to the equivalent harvestable wood volume  Generated these estimate for current and future climate  Used these data to generate yield curves for main forest types – used in wood supply analysis  Results will be incorporated into a 20-year forest management plan for the Island Forests Wood Supply and Climate Change in the Island Forests

Copyright © SRC 2012 Example yield curves for jack pine: Constant CO 2

Copyright © SRC 2012 Example yield curves for jack pine: Increasing CO 2