Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change C-Change in GEES Changing Permafrost Environments Session Seven Session Seven: Permafrost and Climate Change

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Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Session Outline Recent Environmental Changes Climate Change during the 21 st Century? Potential Impacts of Climate Change: –Permafrost distribution –Landscape –Flora & fauna –Human society Positive feedbacks – Greenhouse gas emissions associated with permafrost degradation. Figure SPM.3. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Observed (black line) and modelled variations (blue = natural drivers; pink = natural + anthropogenic drivers) in temperature during the 20 th Century. FAQ 9.2. Fig 1 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernme ntal Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Recent Environmental Changes Increased air temperatures in the Arctic and Antarctic, especially during the winter. –E.g. 2°C warming in winter temperatures over the 20th century in the Arctic. Increased snowfall during the winter. –E.g. increase between of 20% in northern Canada and 11% in Alaska. Modified ground thermal regime: borehole temperature profiles show the upper layers of permafrost to be warming. Increased active layer thickness and thawing of permafrost. Thermal erosion and bank collapse along the Colville River. R.I. Waller

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Summary of the observed impacts of recent climate change on the cryosphere. Fig 4.23 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernme ntal Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Landscape evidence: Degradation of ice-wedge polygons illustrated by the ponding of water above troughs – thermokarst development. R.I. Waller

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Climate Change Projections Large variation in model projections for Arctic climate change (warming of 2 – 9°C by 2100). –Forcing scenarios. –Cross-model variance. Almost all GCMs project the following for the high latitudes within the Northern Hemisphere: Temperature: Maximum warming during the winter, little warming during the summer. Precipitation: Increased precipitation and soil moisture levels during the winter. IPCC temperature projections for the Arctic Fig IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Permafrost Distribution Global warming predicted to result in: –reduced permafrost extent –increased active layer thickness (30-40%; Stendel & Christensen, 2002) –reduced seasonal frost penetration Deep-seated continuous permafrost will remain intact due its thermal inertia; upper layers will warm and active layers will thicken. Discontinuous permafrost and Alpine permafrost may disappear altogether, resulting in a migration of the permafrost boundaries to higher latitudes and altitudes.

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Illustration of the predicted northern migration of permafrost in response to a 4°C increase in surface temperature Figure From: French, H.M The Periglacial Environment (3 rd ed.). Wiley & Sons, Chichester (p.379). © Wiley and Sons

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Locations of sites and changes in active layer thickness from selected sites Fig 4.21 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Historical variation in the monthly areal extent (106 km 2 ) of seasonally frozen ground for the period of 1901 through 2002 in the Northern Hemisphere Fig 4.22 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Landscape Changes Rapid melting of areas of ice-rich permafrost: melting of ground ice will lead to widespread thermokarst development and landscape degradation. Coastal recession due to a reduction in sea ice duration, liquefaction, subsidence and thaw lake generation. Increased fluvial erosion and deposition. Increased rates of mass movement as active layers deepen and become longer lasting. Potential to significantly alter the geography and ecosystem structure of permafrost regions. Retrogressive thaw slump on Summer Island, Mackenzie Delta R.I. Waller

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Sea Ice Extent Primary influence of winter warming in the Arctic is a predicted reduction in sea ice extent and duration. In the Beaufort Sea during the 21 st Century: –Predicted increase in the duration of open-water conditions from 60 days to 150 days. –Maximum extent of open-water conditions increases from km offshore, to km. Would result in increased wave action and increased erosion of permafrost coastlines.

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Figures illustrate a significant decline in the extent of sea ice in the Arctic over the past 15 years in particular. NH – Northern hemisphere SH – Southern hemipshere Figures are relative to the mean for the entire period. Changing Extent of Sea Ice Fig 4.8. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Vegetation Changes Predicted climate change would significantly affect terrestrial ecosystems through both direct climatic changes (temp., precipitation & snow cover) and through changes in the permafrost distribution. Predicted changes to vegetation include: –Contraction of the tundra zone to between 35-70% of its present size by –Associated northward migration of the boreal forests to higher latitudes. Changes may in turn affect climate: e.g. expansion of tree cover may lower surface albedo…

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Projected appreciable changes in terrestrial ecosystems by 2100 relative to 2000 Fig 4.3. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Migration of the treeline: the boundary between the boreal and tundra zones. R.I. Waller

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Human Impact Reduction in the load bearing capacity of permafrost: increased likelihood of subsidence. Thaw subsidence related to active layer deepening: may damage or destroy buildings, roads & pipelines. Increased frequency of slope failures, landslides and rockfalls (increased risk of natural hazards). Thaw of alpine permafrost may result in destabilisation of cable car stations, collapse of cable car pylons etc.

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Building Collapse? Thaw of permafrost may lead to the destruction of structures built on piles driven into the permafrost. Khrustalev (Moscow State Univ.) suggests that by 2030, assuming a warming of 0.075°C/yr, all five-story structures built between 1950 and 1990 in Yakutsk will be destroyed unless remedial measures are taken. Nelson, F.E. et al Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost. Nature, 410,

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Complex Feedbacks Warming of permafrost regions is likely to result in a variety of feedbacks: –Negative: increased net primary productivity. –Positive: increased rate of decomposition. Concern that permafrost degradation may result in the emission of additional greenhouse gases, exacerbating the rate of global warming: –Methane ebullition from thaw lakes. –Thaw and dissociation of gas hydrates. –Thaw of the yedoma formation in Siberia – major organic carbon reservoir.

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Arctic Gas Hydrates Ice-like combinations of natural gas and water. Onshore and offshore accumulations associated with permafrost. Size of accumulations are uncertain; range from 2.8k to 8M trillion m 3 of gas. Permafrost thaw could result in release of substantial quantities of methane. Distribution of organic carbon in Earth reservoirs (excluding dispersed carbon in rocks and sediments, which equals nearly 1000 times this total amount). Numbers in gigatons (1015 tons) carbon Source: USGS

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Methane Bubbling (ebullition) Ebullition accounts for 95% of CH 4 emissions from lakes. Emits est. 3.8 terragrams of CH 4 yr –1 (globally significant source of atmospheric methane). Thawing permafrost along lake margins accounts for most methane. Expansion of thaw lakes between 1974 & 2000 caused a 58% increase in emissions. Walter, K. et al ‘Methane bubbling from Siberian lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming’. Nature, 443(7107), Serrated lake margin associated with permafrost degradation, ice-wedge thaw and lake enlargement (R I Waller)

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Yedoma (Ice Complex) Exposed carbon-rich soils from Kolyma River, region Siberia. Soils are 53 m thick. Courtesy of Katey Walter Ice-rich silt deposited during the Pleistocene, covering >1 million km 2 of north plains of Siberia & Central Alaska to mean depth of ~25 m Contains grass roots & animal bones (av. C concentration for yedoma ~2.6%) Carbon reservoir in frozen yedoma ≈ 500 Gt Zimov, S.A.; Shuur, E.A.G. and Chapin III, F.S. (2006) ‘Permafrost and the Global Carbon Budget’ Science 312(5780):

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change Lecture Summary Global warming predicted to be at its most severe in the Arctic; warming of up to 10°C during winter months. Could lead to dramatic changes in permafrost areas: –Total thaw of some areas of discontinuous and alpine permafrost and warming of continuous permafrost. –Extensive thermokarst development and erosion of ice-rich permafrost. –Large shifts in terrestrial ecosystems. –Significant human impacts. Additional threat of positive feedbacks associated with decay of ancient organics, methane ebullition and thaw of gas hydrates.

Dr Richard Waller, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Permafrost Environments – Permafrost and Climate Change References French, H.M. (2007) The Periglacial Environment (3 rd ed.). Wiley & Sons, Chichester. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Stendel M., and Christensen J.H. (2002) Simulating permafrost zonation and active layer depth change in a warmer climate with a coupled GCM. Geophysical Research Letters 29,1632–1635

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AuthorDr Richard Waller Stephen Whitfield Institute – OwnerKeele University, School of Physical and Geographical Sciences TitlePermafrost and Climate Change PowerPoint Presentation Date CreatedMarch 2010 DescriptionPart Seven of Changing Permafrost Environment Educational Level3 Keywords (Primary keywords – UKOER & GEESOER) UKOER, GEESOER, yedoma, methane, human impact, projection, environmental change, sea ice Creative Commons LicenseAttribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales Item Metadata