Anticipating and matching demand and supply of skills in ETF partner countries Lizzi Feiler, labour market specialist European Training Foundation

Content The knowledge continuum: forecasting is not enough The challenges ETF innovation and learning project : anticipation and matching in transition and developing countries - Project outcome Key findings from stock taking - Planned activities 2013 LFE, Sarajevo,

The knowledge continuum: a coherent approach to anticipation and matching LFE, Sarajevo,

The challenges LFE, Sarajevo, Labour market shocks led to high youth unemployment Weak labour market information systems Transition economies experience rapid change of skills demands because of shifts from agriculture and manufacturing to services, privatisation and foreign direct investment The future is uncertain…. there are also external factors Dominance of micro and small enterprises and a large informal economy create additional challenges

LFE, Sarajevo, …since it is a mission impossible to achieve quick fixes of current skills mismatches with education reforms, anticipation of future skills needs is requested The challenges

Project outcome 2012 LFE, Sarajevo, country reports Synthesis reports Stocktaking of current practices : Specific conditions in transition economies and development countries How to measure mismatch: a comparison of methods and interpetations

Exploring current and future demands – what countries do (examples) Time horizon Levels short-term (0-1 year) Mid-term (1-5 years) Micro-level (people, enterprises) HR: online survey of SMEs HR: transition survey of youth (1x) EGY: tracer study; EGY: Analysis of vacancies (monthly) MOL: PES transition survey; UA: ETF transition study; Meso-level (sectors, regions,) ME: PES and employers federation: employer surveys EGY: PROSPECT method at local level MOL, ME, HR PES employer surveys TR: Skill10 project combines needs analysis, training and matching. (90% job placement expected) UA: VET on demand of employers (90% job placement expected) HR: PES employer surveys HR: Sector analysis (14 sectors) EGY: sectoral employer surveys UA: sector skills studies: ICT sector (ETF), coal mining (TACIS) Macro-level (national, systems level) EGY: 4-yr forecast of the national observatory HR: CES analysis and forecast of LM needs KG: enterprise survey with trend extrapolation and multi-stakeholder surveys MOL: Survey of public and private employers UA: Employer surveys (PES, WB) HR – Croatia, TR – Turkey, UA – Ukraine, KG - Kyrgyzstan

8 Conclusions and key findings from stock taking A robust database for the labour market and the E&T system is a key pre-condition for valid anticipation and effective matching A mix of approaches and continuous methodological improvement (but at the same time continuity and consistency!) is needed Credibility: combination of informal knowledge and research findings. Publication of research is not enough to convince decision makers

9 Anticipation aims at shaping the future, hence needs to be imbedded in a macroeconomic vision and strategy Strong PES capacities are important for better matching Active role of employers in anticipation and matching (recruitment, work based learning, adaptation to change, …) Micro and small enterprises might need specific support Conclusions and key findings from stock taking

Planned activities 2012/2013 LFE, Sarajevo, Skills Mismatch Analyses will build on the project work in 2011 and enable users to choose the right and most relevant methodology 2. Macro Level Anticipation will test and adopt the Cedefop methodology on skills forecast in 1-2 ETF pilot countries, taking into account the availability of data and resources 3. Anticipation and Matching of Skills at Sector Level will cover qualitative and quantitative sector based aspects of skills demands analyses 4. Transition Studies will look into methodologies and objectives of transition and tracer studies, to track and follow individuals on the labour market Elaborating a compendium of guides:

LFE, Sarajevo, Supply Analyses will cover methodologies used for the assessment of capacity, efficiency and relevance of training providers 6. Enterprise Surveys will cover various types of enterprise surveys as a tool for qualitative and quantitative skills needs assessment 7. Anticipation and Matching of Skills at Regional Level will cover the key elements of sub-national demand analysis and specific methodologies and approaches used at regional (e.g. local) level 8. Intermediary Agencies and Tools in Matching will look into roles and modus operandi of intermediary bodies such as PES or career guidance services in matching people´s skills with jobs Planned activities 2012/2013

12 Lizzi Feiler