Human development is the goal to achieve; Social inclusion is the means to get there; while Social exclusion is the obstacle to be overcome to achieve the goal. Jaroslav Kling, UNDP Bratislava Regional Centre Sarajevo, May 26, 2011

Why this report? Human development and social inclusioncomplementary concepts that have evolved in parallel so far Exploring the effects of transition from human development and social exclusion perspectives Looking forward, define methodological framework and monitoring tools Set policy priorities based on evidence (data &regional experience)

Overall objectives Understand the dynamics of social exclusion, inclusion and human development in the region since 1991 Provide tools for assessing levels and intensity of social exclusion, its causes and risks Identify determinants of social exclusion in individual dimensions and how it can be addressed Formulate realistic responses at central & local levels

To achieve all that, we Analyze patterns of exclusion Define the chain of social exclusion: risks interacting with drivers and local characteristics to result in exclusion status Develop an operational methodology for social exclusion measurement and monitoring at aggregated (national) and disaggregated (local) levels Give policy recommendations to enhance social inclusion Provide tools for rooting this methodology in local specifics facilitating area-based social inclusion interventions

Hence the structure of the report: Theory –the relationship between human development and social inclusion Overview – the regions social inclusion status and the implications of the transition decades going in-depth into six countries surveyed Methodology –quantifying social exclusion in three dimensions to go beyond national aggregates and generalization

Exclusion, not multi-dimensional poverty Exclusion: accumulation of deprivations -Dynamic process -Relative (but not subjective) - Dignity is about meeting expectations 6

Targeting different audiences Specific groups attribute different weights to individual layers of analysis: Central government policymakers, parliamentarians: theory - overview - methods Local governments, Civil Society Organizations: theory - overview - methods Academia: theory - overview - methods Development partners (EU, World Bank, rest of UN): theory - overview - methods Policy-oriented think-tanks: theory - overview - methods General public: theory-overview-methods

The report… Integrates available data to describe social exclusion outcomes during transition Provides qualitative information on what happened and how; and quantitative analysis tested in the six countries Serves as information resource (aggregated data) and as methodological basis for identifying the dimensions of exclusion

The reports quantitative underpinnings Social Exclusion Survey in 6 countries of the region Localities-specific data for contextualization of the survey data Secondary data on all countries of the region Development and other indicators relevant to social exclusion and inclusion

Quantifying social exclusion

ultidimensional Poverty M ultidimensional Poverty Approach Same UNDP/OPHI approach as used for Global HDR 2010 for poverty Dual cutoff method: within dimension: based on deprivation with respect to given dimension across dimensions: overall threshold (number of deprivations) beyond which a person is considered socially excluded

Economic: Deprivation in incomes, basic needs, access to employment, financial services; material needs and lack of amenities; housing and ICT-related exclusion. Social services: Access to and affordability of education and health services; other public services, such as public utilities. Participation in civic and social life: Deprivation in political, cultural and social participation; political, cultural and social support networks. Three dimensions of social exclusion (with 8 indicators each):

How many deprivations does it take to be excluded? Tough measurement question: How many deprivations does it take to be excluded? Threshold-number of deprivations, a matter of choice Our survey: 9 13

Share of socially excluded and the social exclusion index KazakhstanMoldova FYR MacedoniaSerbiaTajikistanUkraine Magnitude of social exclusion at cut-off 9 (A) Social exclusion headcount 32%40%12%19%72%20% (B) Average number of deprivations experienced by the socially excluded (C) Intensity - average number of deprivations experienced by the socially excluded as percentage of total (24) 44%46%45% 46%43% Multidimensional Exclusion Index (MEI) = (A) *(C)

Main findings: Individual characteristics and exclusion status

Overall results: Not surprising: q Exclusion highly correlated with: - Human Development Index: - Unemployment - Low education But, Also, highly correlated with transition ills: Marginalization Weak governance As well as with the geography of economic restructuring 16

Social exclusion and age: children and elderly are most affected

Employment is crucial to avoid social exclusion

Low education level raises social exclusion

Certain groups are more excluded (Serbia Survey)

Higher Human Development Index correlates closely with higher social inclusion

Drivers of exclusion and their implications for exclusion status

Poor governance goes closely with exclusion 23

Barriers to business exacerbate social exclusion

A better functioning labour market enhances social inclusion

Informal employment brings dubious benefits

Less tolerant values enhance social exclusion

Tolerance of corruption heightens social exclusion

Specifics of local context and its implications for social exclusion

Location matters greatly! 30

Social exclusion is particularly high in mono-company towns

The quality of local infrastructure also affects social exclusion

Lasting effects of environmental disasters in yet another area: social exclusion

Towards an individualized approach to social exclusion Integrating individual risks, specifics of local context, and values.

In sum: both who you are and where you live matter If you are young person, with low education, living in a village, or a town with a single companyyou face a high risk of exclusion… …and secondary education doesnt help much in these conditions… …while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference …economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education) …and much more if you are educated

Conclusions q Transition to a market economy in the region left some out in the cold. Reforms have not always helped to improve lives. q It could be anyone! Everyone is at risk of being left out of society, not only marginalized groups. q Income doesnt tell the whole story ! To be part of society, you also need access to public services, and opportunities to participate in community life. q Attitudes, local economy characteristics, policies matter q No single policy can eliminate exclusion - Policies need to be comprehensive to break the social exclusion chain 36

Recommendations Genuine, sustained commitment to social inclusion with clear targets Preventive focus on individual vulnerabilities Clear focus on peoples capacities Addressing institutional drivers is crucial Match this with deliberate efforts to change mindsets

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