LIVE INTERACTIVE YOUR DESKTOP Tuesday, November 17, 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in the Eastern United States Presented by Tim Owen, Frank Niepold, and Peg Steffen

CLIMATE CHANGE WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EAST? TIM OWEN NOAA’s NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER

Eastern U.S. – Northeast/Southeast

Presentation Outline PART ONE: What’s Going On With the Climate in the Eastern U.S.? PART TWO: What are the Impacts? PART THREE: What Can We Do About It?

What’s Going On? PART ONE

Which of the following terms have you heard about and understand? [Place clip art on the continuum below] Climate Change Climate Variability Global Warming

What is your perception of how the climate has changed where you live over the past 30 years? A.Much Warmer B.Warmer C.No Change D.Cooler E.Much Cooler

Change variability and change Climate Variability: Natural changes in climate falling in the normal range of extremes for a particular region. Drivers of climate variability include the El Niño Southern Oscillation and other phenomena. Climate Change: A significant and persistent change in the mean state of the climate or its variability. Drivers include regular changes in Earth’s orbit about the sun, re-arrangement of continents through plate tectonic motions, or anthropogenic modification of the atmosphere.

Global warming Global Warming: The observed increase in average temperature near the Earth’s surface and in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. Global warming is a type of climate change; it can also lead to other changes in climate conditions, such as changes in precipitation patterns.

The world is getting warmer… Observed Temperature Change

… and further warming is likely

The U.S. is getting warmer and slightly wetter

… with an uptick of extreme events INCREASES in… Air and water temperatures Frequency of heavy downpours Intensity of heavy downpours Sea level DECREASES in… Frost days Snow cover Glaciers and permafrost Sea ice

In the Eastern United States… NORTHEAST:  Average annual temperature increase of 2 o F since 1970  Increase in warm days, longer growing season, downpours  Decrease in precipitation falling as snow SOUTHEAST:  Average annual temperature increase of 2 o F since 1970  Seasonal changes in precipitation (e.g., 30% increase in Fall, decrease in summer)  Increase in heavy downpours and drought coverage  Increase in power of Atlantic hurricanes since 1970

In the Eastern United States… NORTHEAST:  Average annual temperature increase of 2 o F since 1970  Increase in warm days, longer growing season, downpours  Decrease in precipitation falling as snow

In the Eastern United States… SOUTHEAST:  Average annual temperature increase of 2 o F since 1970  Seasonal changes in precipitation (e.g., 30% increase in Fall, decrease in summer)  Increase in heavy downpours and drought coverage  Increase in power of Atlantic hurricanes since 1970

Let’s Pause Two Minutes for Questions from the Audience

What are the Impacts? PART TWO

In the Eastern United States… NORTHEAST:  Increasing health risks from extreme heat and declining air quality  Adverse impact on production of milk, fruits, and maple syrup  More frequent flooding from sea-level rise, storm surge, and heavy downpours  Adverse impact on winter recreation, and lobster and cod fisheries

Coastal inundation impact…New York

In the Eastern United States… SOUTHEAST:  Increases in air/water temperatures stress people, plants/animals  Decreased water availability is very likely to affect the economy and natural systems  Sea-level rise and increases in hurricane intensity and storm surge cause serious impacts  Ecosystem thresholds crossed, leading to natural disruptions  Severe weather events and reduced availability of insurance

Coastal inundation impact…Louisiana

Infrastructure impact…Gulf Coast

Poll Question How significant do you think climate change impacts will be on ecosystems in the Eastern U.S. over the next 50 years? A) Devastating B) Significant C) Noticeable D) Minimal

What Can We Do About It? PART THREE

The Choice “We basically have three choices: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering. We’re going to do some of each. The question is what the mix is going to be. The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required and the less suffering there will be.” John Holdren President of the American Association for the Advancement of Science; Harvard University

Responding to Climate Change Mitigation: Reducing the amount of climate change, for example, by reducing heat-trapping emissions or increasing their removal from the atmosphere Adaptation: Improving our ability to cope with or avoid harmful impacts or taking advantage of newly favorable conditions BOTH will be needed.

Adaption case 1

Adaption case 2

Choosing the path

Reality check: where are we now? Above even the highest future scenario

Who is responsible?

The value of climate literacy Climate change will continue to be a significant element of public discourse. Understanding the essential principles of climate science will enable all people to assess news stories and contribute to their everyday conversations as informed citizens. Days > 100 o F: Days > 100 o F: LOWER Emissions Scen. HIGHER Emissions Scen.

Small things matter stop using this start using this

Ultimately we need a fundamental change stop using this start using this

Let’s Pause Two Minutes for Questions from the Audience

When do you think global warming will start to harm people in the United States? [Place clip art on the continuum below] They are being harmed now In 25 years In 100 years In 50 years Never In 10 years

Resources 1 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States What climate change means for the places we care about … PDF & educational materials free online at: usimpacts

Resources 2 Climate Change, Wildlife and Wildlands Toolkit for Formal and Informal Educators Helps educators teach about climate change impacts and how to become a “climate steward” ources/educators/toolkit/

THE END FOR MORE INFORMATION

THANKS TO THE SPONSOR OF TONIGHT’S WEB SEMINAR!

National Science Teachers Association Dr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-Learning LIVE INTERACTIVE YOUR DESKTOP NSTA Web Seminars Paul Tingler, Director Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator