Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique Université Catholique de Louvain Roads : a proximate or underlying cause of deforestation ? Marie Scouvart, Eric Lambin et al. III d LBA Conference, th July, Brasília Special Session 7 - Roads, land use and land cover changes in Brazilian Amazon

Summary Introduction : general context Theoretical perspectives on the role of roads Research design First preliminary results : cases outline Methodology Policy implications

General context Nearly 90% of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon between 1991 and 1997 occurred within 100 km from the five major road networks (Alves, 2002) National demand for land High agricultural suitability of some forest areas Migrations Policy decisions to extend the road network in those areas Conversion of forest to agricultural land Expansion of local logging or agricultural activities in some forest areas Construction of new roadsNeed to link these active production areas to existing markets Or Construction of a road for reasons unrelated to land use in the forest New deforestationSpatial redistribution of population and activities Or DeforestationAttraction to a given location of a preexisting demand for land Or

Research questions and hypothesis 3 questions –are roads a proximate or underlying cause of deforestation ? –do roads mostly affect rates or location of deforestation ? –are roads endogenous or exogenous factors of deforestation ? Main hypothesis in most cases, roads are only a spatial determinant of deforestation at the proximate level. The quantity of deforestation is mostly determined by macro-economic factors, national policies and/or patterns of migration at the national scale. Objective understand the role of road development on deforestation and livelihoods under different natural and socio-economic conditions to improve scenarios of future forest-cover change  Roads are catalysts of deforestation

Research design Comparative analysis of local case studies –identify the factors that control the impact of roads on deforestation –exploit in a comparative framework the knowledge acquired through local scale case studies Case studies selection –based on available literature and active research teams –cover the full range of impacts of roads on deforestation Data collection –published case studies –formal expert consultation qualitative information, expert judgement quantitative data –fieldwork key actors, institutions, etc.

Source : ISA, 2000 ALTAMIRA - PA E. Moran, E. Brondizio, R.T. Adams, T. Evans [Indiana University] URUARÁ - PA R. Walker, M. Caldas, S. Aldrich, E. Arima [Michigan State University] P. Pacheco [Clark University / Cifor / IPAM] A. Venturieri [Embrapa Amazônia Oriental] SÃO FÉLIX - PA B. Mertens [Cifor] R. Poccard-Chapuis, M.-G. Piketty [Cirad] PARAGOMINAS - PA C. de Souza [Imazon] REDENÇÃO - PA MARABÁ - PA GUARANTÃ DO NORTE - MT V. Nédélec [Université Rennes 2] OURO PRETO DO OESTE - RO V. Dale [Oak Ridge National Laboratory] M. Pedlowski [Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminese] Local support : L. Ventura dos Santos [APA] BRASILÉIA - AC Local support: E.A. Borges, M.C. Rocha da Silva, P.S. Braña Muniz [Pesacre]

First preliminary results : cases outline Ouro Preto do Oeste – RO BR-364, built in , paved in 1984, in good general state Good soils National colonization programs, massive immigration of colons from the South History of occupation before the official colonization : e.a. rubber cycles Significant role of the MST Brasiléia – AC BR-317, built in 1958, paved in 2002, in very good general state Relatively good soils and flat topography, favourable to ranching activities History : Acrean Revolution and old history of occupation by traditional communities (seringueiros), resistance to the colonization model Tradition of environmental conservation, influencing political decision process Border area, project of the “Road to the Pacific” Guarantã do Norte – MT BR-163, built in , paved in , in relatively good general state Area of private colonization Economic development of the city due to its “end of the road” position Land tenure system stabilized, area with few land tenure conflicts Altamira / Uruará – PA BR-230, built in , not paved, in bad general state Area of INCRA planned colonization schemes Relatively few occupation before the official colonization Consolidated frontier (old frontier) São Félix – PA PA-279, built in , not paved, in good general state Road development by the state government following local development of activities Impact of the gold extraction Mixed frontier, land speculation and conflicts

‘Small-N’  case study  « case-oriented »  deep knowledge of each case  no quantitative measures N Q lit Qualitative Very small N Quantitative Very large N  abstraction of individual cases  « variable-oriented »  covariance patterns  statistical analyses Methodology Qualitative Comparative Analysis - QCA (Ragin, 1987) –recent approach and technique for comparing in a systematic way a limited number of cases (‘small-N’) –via media between traditional quantitative and qualitative approaches

Methodology (2) Why choose QCA ? –interpretation and limited generalization ‘ Small-N ’ –complexity of causal relationships « multiple conjunctural causation » (and / or) –controlled observation (quasi-experimental research design) –combines holistic and analytic approaches cases as configurations of conditions –parsimony reduces complexity by highlighting causal regularities –replicability

Implementation of QCA N = 15 to 20 cases Variables –outcome (dependent variable) : high / low deforestation along the road –potential explanatory conditions (independent variables) : « macro-variables » state and age of the road infrastructure initial conditions local ecological conditions - e.a. soil quality, topography, rainfall, forest type local socio-economic conditions - e.a. urban development, population density, markets local institutional factors - e.a. protected areas, land tenure system local political factors - e.a. local conservation and development policies national political context - e.a. incentives, colonization, development programs national economic context - e.a. conditions on national markets, inflation international economic / political context - e.a. conditions on global markets (soybeans, wood), conventions on the environment (e.g. Kyoto)

Implementation of QCA (2) Expected results –« minimal equations » : main factors controlling the impacts of roads –typology of cases  interpretation and link with theory Difficulties –dichotomization of variables –number of potential expanatory conditions  macro-variables –static approach  time periods (temporal interpretation, more cases) Perspectives –QCA (binary variables) and Multi-Value QCA (categorical variables) –application of logistic regression techniques to Small-N conditions –introduction of cases outside the Brazilian Amazon (Peru and Ecuador)

Policy implications Context –Avança Brasil : e.a. near doubling of paved roads –alarming predictions : 28 to 42% of the region deforested or heavily degraded following current development plans and land use trends (Laurance et al., 2001) Guide the implementation of relevant development and conservation policies : is it better to intensify roads in already settled areas, or to expand the road network to primary forest areas in order to make them accessible ?

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