State Fiscal Outlook NABE December 15, 2009 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State Budget Officers 444 North Capitol Street, NW,

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Presentation transcript:

State Fiscal Outlook NABE December 15, 2009 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State Budget Officers 444 North Capitol Street, NW, Suite 642 Washington, DC (202)

NASBO 2 Current Fiscal Situation: Indicators

NASBO State Budget Gaps (in millions)

NASBO Negative Spending in Both FY 2009 and FY 2010 *32-year historical average rate of growth is 5.6 percent **Fiscal 10 numbers are appropriated Source: NASBO Fall 2009 Fiscal Survey of States * The New Normal?

NASBO 5 Balances Declining *32-year historical average is 5.5% Source: NASBO Fall 2009 Fiscal Survey

NASBO Budget Cuts at Record Levels 6 Source: NASBO Fall 2009 Fiscal Survey of States

NASBO State Revenue Down 17% in 2 nd Quarter: Largest Decline on Record Source: Fiscal Studies Program, Rockefeller Institute of Government; U.S. Census Bureau

NASBO So far… State Bond Ratings Stable 45 have a stable outlook, 5 negative 2 states have had ratings lowered in 2009 (CA, IL) 3 have had ratings raised (ND, TX, WV) 8 Source: Standard & Poor’s, 8/21/09

NASBO 9 Job Growth – “The Lag” Source: Washington Post; Bureau of Labor Statistics

NASBO 10 Example of Michigan Source: Michigan Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis, Dept. of Treasury, 7/31/09 May 2009 estimates

NASBO 11 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act – State $ Approximately $246 billion+ going to or through states State Fiscal Stabilization Fund - $53.6 billion:  $39.5 billion to schools and higher ed  $5 billion in incentive grants  $8.8 billion in flexible funds Medicaid Funding: $87 billion Highway and Bridge Infrastructure: $27.5 billion Also safety net expansions, economic development, other appropriated programs

NASBO 12 The Cliff… Source: Statelin e.org

NASBO 13 Outlook

NASBO 14 State Fiscal Outlook Austere state budgets for at least the next several years Health care reform will have an impact on state finances Tough competition for state general funds Demand for performance and results Opportunity for reform

NASBO 15 Scott Pattison (202)