Food Chain Disruptions & Trade 2005 Agricultural Outlook Forum Washington, D.C. February 25, 2005 Parr Rosson Professor & Director Center for North American.

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Presentation transcript:

Food Chain Disruptions & Trade 2005 Agricultural Outlook Forum Washington, D.C. February 25, 2005 Parr Rosson Professor & Director Center for North American Studies Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University

Background Since Mid 1980s, Market Integration in North America Has Accelerated  Exports/Imports  Investment  Just-in-Time Delivery Systems Developed Animals & Meat Among Fastest Growing Components of North American Agricultural Trade Increased Grain Trade Among NAFTA Countries BSE & Avian Flu Have Disrupted N.A. Trade in Recent Years International Rules on Regionalization Allow Trade to Resume, Under Certain Conditions

Intra-NAFTA Grain Trade NAFTAROW Source: USDA/FAS and Ag and Food Canada. Percents are share of total NAFTA grain trade. Million Metric Tons (8.8%)(17.8%)(16.4%)

(16.9%) (25.7%) (35.6%)

Implications of Food Chain Disruptions Often ADOs Are Economic Events, Not Food Safety (FMD, HPAI) Trade Likely Restricted or Banned Market & Price Impacts, Severe in Some Cases More Competition Among Countries & Products Market Integration Often Be Disrupted Food Chain Event Management Takes on Added Importance

U.S. Meat Exports, Forecast ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) F ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1,000 Metric Tons Broiler MeatBeefPork ) Source: PS&D Online, U.S. BSE 12/23/03

U.S. Beef Exports, 2003 & 2004 Source: U.S. Trade Internet System, Canada 7.7% Mexico 23.3% Korea 25.1% Japan 36.1% Other 7.8% Canada 8.6% Mexico 78.5% Other 12.9% 2003 Total: TMT 2004 Total: TMT

US Fed Cattle Futures, Nov 03-Feb 05 U.S. BSE 12/23/03 *2/16/05 Chicago Mercantile Exchange

U.S. Imports of Beef and Pork , ,000 1,200 1,000 Metric Tons BeefPork + Source: U.S. Trade Internet System,

Frozen Boneless, Note 3 Fresh/Chill Boneless, Note 3 Other Frozen Boneless Other Pays Over-quota Duty

U.S. Cattle Imports from Canada Source: USDA/FAS ,273 1,202 1,010 1,133 1,509 1,377 1, ,306 1, ,000 1,500 2,000 Thousand Head

Million Head Feeder PigsSlaughter Hogs

Canadian BSE

Beef Cattle Sector-Short Run Concentrate Trade in North America Canada: – Increased Specialization in Meat Packing – Switch to Boneless Beef Exports to US – Some Feedyards Failed – Import Less Corn from US United States: – Import More Beef to Blend w/Lean US Beef for Ground Meat – Uruguay Emerges as Major Supplier – Australia Captures Nearly Half of Japanese Beef Market Mexico: – Increases Exports of Live Cattle

Beef Cattle Sector-Long Run Depends on Canada & Japan Canada: – Specialization May Continue – Increased Packing Capacity? Feed lot Placements 22% Above 2003 January 2005, 254% Above January 2004 – Import More Corn from US – Hog Exports to US Continue to Grow, Replacing Pork United States: – Beef Imports Decline, Herd Rebuilds, Prices Fall – Australia Remains Major Player in Japan – Poultry & Pork Export Growth Surpasses Beef – Diversifying Exports Likely Important Mexico: – Rebuilds Herd & Increases Exports of Live Cattle – May Begin to Feed More Cattle & Expand Packing

Food Chain Event Management Contingency Planning & Training Diversion Routes & Locations for Contaminated Cargo Evaluate Alternative Modes of Transportation Consider Food Chain Event ‘Gaming’ Similar to Military Exercises Based partly on comments at Border Trade Alliance Conference, Washington, DC, February 15, 2005 by Bonnie Tischler, VP, Global Transportation & Supply Chain Security, Pinkerton.

Summary U.S. Meat Exports Concentrated Degree of Trade Dependence Determines Potential Severity of Animal & Plant Disease Impacts U.S. Pork Exports Gained As Beef & Poultry Exports Declined-Next Time? Maintaining Consumer Confidence Crucial

Thank You! “Informed Decisions for Global Change” Parr Rosson Ph: Center for North American Studies