Setting Goals and Getting Started with Scenarios Emily McKenzie

Montserrat

Valuation: Centre Hills, Montserrat

What change in decision-making do you seek? Who can make that change happen? When will decisions be made? What info do they need / seek? How can ES info help? LESSON # 1: Establish Goals, Be Specific

LESSON # 2: Prioritize process 1.Credible 2.Legitimate (unbiased, inclusive) 3.Salient (relevant, timely)

LESSON # 3: Make outputs relevant Relevant ecosystem services Suitable outputs (biophysical, econ) Appropriate scale Scenarios Post-processing analyses

Activity How can you enhance credibility, salience and legitimacy of InVEST results? Which ecosystem services are most relevant? Which ecosystem service outputs are suitable? What scale is most appropriate? What scenarios would you compare?

LESSON # 4: Tell Stories, Use Scenarios

Valuation study in Bermuda After Before

Scenarios can hone your message Bermuda’s reefs worth – $722 million p.a. – 10-17% of GDP But what would be costs and benefits of new shipping channels?

Why use scenarios? Identify tradeoffs Consider new policies ‘Future-proof’ policies Air conflicts, develop consensus

Scenario Guidance Scenario Case Studies InSEAM Scenario Generator InVEST linked to IDRISI Land Change Modeler NatCap Scenario Tools

Conclusions 1.Be specific about goals 2.Recognize importance of process 3.Make sure InVEST outputs are relevant 4.Use scenarios

– Screening Criteria – InVEST in Practice – Scenario Tools

Spare slides

Select sites carefully Will it deliver service & conservation? Are conditions supportive? Screening Criteria+?- Service delivery Measurability Scale / replicable Alternatives … Strong opportunity High risk Information gap An assessment framework

1. Secure Government or Institutional Support 2. Conduct Biophysical Assessment Demonstrate potential economic efficiencies and social benefits of PWS 1. Show current ES status 2. Identify where to distribute payments 3. Predict how ES will change under PWS 4. Prioritize significant land management alternatives 3. Develop Governance 4. Identify Service Buyers 1. Identify geographic areas of current ES provision 2. Identify geographic areas of potential ES provision 3. Assess ES returns of management options 5. Identify Service Providers Identify where ES are delivered 6. Set Prices or Payments Provide ES values as base for negotiation 7. Institutional Assessment 8. Assess and Develop Capacity 9. Define Success Inform ES target levels 10. Determine Contract and Payment Types 11. Monitoring and Evaluation Inform design of monitoring program 12. Adapt and Scale Up 1. Assess potential ES returns of alternative management plans 2. Identify where to focus new PWS programs Policy Step InVEST Contribution

Framework for defining success PRODUCE RESULTS PublishedDisseminated PRODUCE TOOLS THAT GENERATE ACTION Alternatives based on ES scientific framework Plans & policies consider ES impacts & dynamics PRODUCE OUTCOMES New policy & finance mechanisms Improved & balanced ES provision Increased biodiversity & human wellbeing PRODUCE TOOLS THAT SHAPE MINDS People understand and aware of ES Stakeholders focused on ES impacts Stakeholder differences mediated