Dr Rob Allan, ACRE Project Manager, Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom The Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative QCCCE

What is ACRE? ACRE is an international collaborative initiative led by a consortium of: the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE) in Australia the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado

What will ACRE do? Seamlessly: Facilitate the recovery of historical instrumental surface terrestrial and marine global weather observations to underpin 4D weather reconstructions (reanalyses) over the last years for climate applications and impacts needs worldwide. It will produce: dynamically consistent, high resolution global historical 4D weather reconstructions at 2 o latitude by 2 o longitude spatial resolution every 6 hours using state-of-the-art scientific capabilities (in the future, 1/2 o spatial resolution)dynamically consistent, high resolution global historical 4D weather reconstructions at 2 o latitude by 2 o longitude spatial resolution every 6 hours using state-of-the-art scientific capabilities (in the future, 1/2 o spatial resolution) a baseline of 4D weather reconstructions that can be tailored and ‘downscaled’ for:a baseline of 4D weather reconstructions that can be tailored and ‘downscaled’ for: regional to local climate applications, e.g., agricultural, environmental, societal, physical climate impacts, e.g., risk of high impact phenomena direct weather input into biophysical and production models an historical baseline of global weather that can be used to constrain global climate models, putting them in a much stronger position to look into the future at possible implications and impacts of climate change.an historical baseline of global weather that can be used to constrain global climate models, putting them in a much stronger position to look into the future at possible implications and impacts of climate change.

Three surface input only historical reanalyses generating 6-hourly 4D atmospheric weather variables 20th Century Reanalysis Project: 1891-present (supported in US by NOAA & DoE) Surface Input Reanalysis for Climate Applications (SIRCA) (1840s-2011) North Atlantic-European Region: 1750-present Ecological Phenological Health & Disease Reinsurance Climate Monitoring Model Validation Environmental Assessments Extremes, Impacts & Risks Water resources Agricultural Forestry Energy Marine operations Fisheries Cultural landscapes & built heritage QCCCE Climate research, applications & impacts community needs & direct feed into biophysical models Global historical surface daily to sub-daily weather observations and downscaling OLDWEATHEROLDWEATHER

Data needs for ACRE-facilitated Historical Reanalyses of 4D weather conditions Digitised Global Surface Observational Coverage (%) ‘PRIOR TO WORLD WAR 2, AS MUCH SURFACE DATA HASN’T BEEN DIGITISED AS HAS BEEN’ POTENTIAL COVERAGE World War 2 World War 1 ERA & NCEP

GCOS AOPC/OOPC Surface Pressure Working Group International Surface Pressure Data Bank International Surface Pressure Data Bank ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/pub/Public/gcompo/ISPDv2.2/ ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/ispd/v2.2/Station_Map/ NATIONAL METEOROLOGICA L SERVICES SERVICES (ECSN, ETCCDI, VACS, CMA, MeteoFrance) R E C L A I M NCDC NCDC v/oa/ncdc.html v/oa/ncdc.html ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION RECONSTRUCTIONS OVER THE EARTH ICOADS ICOADS GLOBE CDMP imate/cdmp/ imate/cdmp/ TERRESTRIAL DATA MARINE DATA HISTORICAL CLIMATE QUALITY REANALYSES DATA RESCUE (MEDARE MedCLIVAR IEDRO SIGN)

Activities in recovering, imaging and digitising historical marine and terrestrial observations 2007/2009: British East India Company (EIC) logbooks (1780s-1830s) – held in the British Library (imaging by British Library, digitised by CDMP in US) 900 of the 2,000 logs have instrumental data [200K images] /2009: Extended World War 1 period logbooks ( ) - held in the UK National Archives (imaging by UK National Archives) 7,000 to 8,000 logs [300K+ images] 2007/2008: Printed/published logbooks of late 19 th - early 20 th Century Antarctic expeditions plus ships of exploration – online plus held in the Met Office Library & Archives (imaging & digitisation) : Inventory of historical Chinese and South China Sea instrumental weather observations - an initiative in conjunction with Professor Robert Bickers, Department of Historical Studies, Bristol University and Chinese Maritime Customs Project, to produce an inventory of all the sources of historical Chinese and South China Sea region terrestrial and marine daily to sub-daily meteorological data. 2008: British hydrographic and survey vessel remarks books ( ) – held at the UK Hydrographic Office (UKHO) (inventory of holdings in the archives of the UKHO) about 6,000 remarks books 2009/2010: CoRRal: UK Colonial registers and Royal Naval Logbooks – held at The National Archives (imaging and digitising logbooks of ships on voyages of discovery : ADM-55, and attached to the Hydrographic Survey ) plus held at The National Archives and the Met Office Archives (UK colonial meteorological registers, journals and gazettes 1840-present). CoRRal: a Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC) Digitisation Programme: Enriching Digital Resources funded project.

Global Historical Reanalyses Products * Each of the ACRE-facilitated global historical reanalyses will produce a 56 * member ensemble of some 68 4D weather variables every 6 hours at 2° latitude x 2° longitude spatial resolution over the entire globe. The ensemble mean is taken as the best analysis. Some major 4D weather variables produced by the reanalyses Geopotential Height Temperature u wind v wind Pressure vertical velocity Specific humidity Relative humidity At 19 Levels: (1000 hPa–100 hPa every 50 hpa) Others at specific levels (eg, sigma) or over the depth of the atmospheric column include: Surface pressure, Tropopause height, Precipitable water, Convective Avail. Pot. Energy, Convective inhibition, Potential temp. Total ozone, Cloud water, Sensible heat flux, Latent heat flux, Volumetric soil moisture, Accum. Snow, Downward long wave flux, Upward long wave flux, Upward short wave flux, Downward short wave flux, Precipitation rate, Convective precip. Rate, Ground heat flux, Land cover, Ice concentration, Water runoff, Potential evaporation rate, Planetary boundary layer height, Albedo, Total cloud cover, Zonal momentum flux, Meridional momentum flux. * * started in November of year before, 56 random initial conditions produced from integrations of the T62 28 sigma level model forced by SSTs

NOAA ESRL/CIRES MOHC, CRU, SU, ECMWF, POL KNMI Météo-France UBERN, ETHZ QCCCE SIGN BALTEX SENABAR Med - CLIVAR & MEDARE ECSN US Colonial Era Data Study Chilean Chapter Southeastern Australia Chapter Chinese Maritime Customs Project International Projects, Sources & Repositories linked to ACRE IEDROICOADSISPD WMO DARERECLAIMGLOBE GLOSS ETCCDI VACS ICHM ERA-CLIM EURO4M USQ NationalMarineSanctuaries (Blue shadings are for potential projects submitted to funding bodies) UCT ECED/NiCHE CDMP NCDC ICCSIR CHANGE EuroCryoClim BoM NCC, CMAR NIWA

ACRE-linked Climate Applications and Impacts Projects Extremes, climate modes and reanalysis-based approaches to agricultural resilience: Funder: Land & Water Australia, Managing Climate Variability Innovation Call project, commenced in September FUNDING TO ACRE Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for South-eastern Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data: Funder: Proposal for an Australian Research Council Linkage Project 2009 SENABAR "Storminess since 1800 as interpreted from European and North Atlantic BARometric pressure variability": Funder: To be submitted as a proposal to the 1 December 2008 Standard Grant round of UK NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) ERA-CLIM: Development of a European Reanalysis Capability for Global Climate Monitoring: Funder: Proposal to the EC FP7 – Seventh Framework Programme Cooperation Theme 9 “Space” EURO4M: European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring: Funder: Proposal to the EC FP7 – Seventh Framework Programme Cooperation Theme 9 “Space” CHANGE for Africa - Climate Helps Africans Negotiate Greater Efficiencies: Funder: Proposal to the EC FP7 – Seventh Framework Programme Cooperation, Area : Climate change natural and socio-economic impacts Chilean Chapter of ACRE: Funder: Proposal to the EC FP7 - Seventh Framework Programme Cooperation. Devon Community Climate Change Local Histories Project (CCHP): Funder: UK Heritage Lottery Fund, commenced in September NO FUNDING TO ACRE

New partners in ACRE Early Canada Environmental Data/Network in Canadian History & Environment (ECED/NiCHE) ( NiCHE brings together historians, geographers, and other researchers who study nature and humans in Canada's past. It offers a forum for the field, support collaboration among scholars, and ensure that this research is shared with policymakers, scientists, and the Canadian public. ECED is a component of NiCHE, and its aims are: to assemble digital resources that facilitate the study of historical data on Canadian environments to design tools and explore different methods to work with such data to bring together existing datasets and to create new databases. This partnership will aid ACRE’s needs to link into ongoing Canadian historical data and research activities plus their outreach and outputs to community and user needs. The Sea Around Us Project (SAUP) ( ACRE is exploring a potential collaboration with this initiative. SAUP is investigating the impact of fisheries on the world's marine ecosystems. This is achieved by using a Geographic Information System (GIS) to map global fisheries catches from 1950 to the present, under explicit consideration of major critical habitats of fish, marine invertebrates, marine mammals and other components of marine biodiversity. The data presented, which are freely available, are meant to support studies of global fisheries trends and the development of sustainable, ecosystem-based fisheries policies.

PROJECTED/POTENTIAL TIMELINE Mid-2009: The 20th Century Reanalysis Project: 1891 to present Version 1: : Available – we have a terabyte disc of ensemble means Version 2: available Mid-2009 Mid-2009: British East India Company (EIC) logbooks (1780s-1830s) Imaged & Digitised : Final version of HadISST : Extended World War 1 period logbooks ( ) Imaged & Digitised : Early to mid-19th Century Reanalysis (with DoE and NOAA support) Version 3: mid-19 th – 21 st century would need all data by August 2010 improved version of NCEP model at higher resolution => hurricanes, high impact phenomena? potentially available in ?: British hydrographic and survey vessel remarks books ( ) Imaging & Digitisation 201?: North Atlantic-European Region mid18th-early 19th Century Reanalysis: 1750/1800 to present

THE FUTURE POTENTIAL Historical surface observations input-only reanalysis of the 1938 Atlantic ‘Long Island Express’ Hurricane: using additional HURDAT data and NCEP NWP T254 (1/2 degree spatial resolution) model

ACRE Project Manager Dr Rob Allan Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group, Met Office Hadley Centre Alternative ACRE WWW Site: Old Weather WWW Site: Phone: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Address: Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB