South Bend, IN Meteorology 415 – Fall 2012 Second Contest Fourth Day

South Bend Population (2010) City101,168 Density 2,787/sq mi (1,075.9/km 2 ) Metro 316,663

South bend - OBS KSBN Z 22017G20KT 10SM CLR 16/03 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 19026/1733 SLP144 T =KSBN Z 22017G20KT 10SM CLR 16/03 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 19026/1733 SLP144 T = KSBN Z 19016G23KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP131 T =KSBN Z 19016G23KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP131 T = KSBN Z 20016G25KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 20027/1921 SLP127 T =KSBN Z 20016G25KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 20027/1921 SLP127 T = KSBN Z 20016G22KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 21026/1958 SLP124 T =KSBN Z 20016G22KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 21026/1958 SLP124 T = KSBN Z 21013KT 10SM CLR 16/04 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP121 T =KSBN Z 21013KT 10SM CLR 16/04 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP121 T = KSBN Z 19010KT 10SM CLR 16/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP118 T =KSBN Z 19010KT 10SM CLR 16/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP118 T = KSBN Z 20009KT 10SM CLR 14/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP119 T =KSBN Z 20009KT 10SM CLR 14/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP119 T = KSBN Z 19008KT 10SM CLR 13/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP120 T =KSBN Z 19008KT 10SM CLR 13/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP120 T = KSBN Z 20011KT 10SM BKN100 13/04 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP112 T =KSBN Z 20011KT 10SM BKN100 13/04 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP112 T = KSBN Z 20011KT 10SM BKN065 OVC095 13/04 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP109 T =KSBN Z 20011KT 10SM BKN065 OVC095 13/04 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP109 T = KSBN Z 32017G21KT 7SM -RA FEW025 BKN042 OVC050 10/08 A2988 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 P0000=KSBN Z 32017G21KT 7SM -RA FEW025 BKN042 OVC050 10/08 A2988 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 P0000=

South bend - OBS KSBN Z 20011KT 10SM BKN065 OVC095 13/04 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP109 T = KSBN Z 20011KT 10SM BKN065 OVC095 13/04 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP109 T = KSBN Z 32017G21KT 7SM -RA FEW025 BKN042 OVC050 10/08 A2988 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 P0000= KSBN Z 32017G21KT 7SM -RA FEW025 BKN042 OVC050 10/08 A2988 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 P0000= KSBN Z 32014G22KT 10SM -RA FEW025 BKN035 OVC045 09/07 A2989 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 SLP122 P0000 T = KSBN Z 32014G22KT 10SM -RA FEW025 BKN035 OVC045 09/07 A2989 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 SLP122 P0000 T = KSBN Z 33010KT 5SM RA BR BKN010 BKN024 OVC040 09/07 A2989 RMK AO2 CIG 008V018 P0001= KSBN Z 33010KT 5SM RA BR BKN010 BKN024 OVC040 09/07 A2989 RMK AO2 CIG 008V018 P0001= KSBN Z 32012G19KT 4SM +RA BR BKN008 BKN026 OVC032 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0009= KSBN Z 32012G19KT 4SM +RA BR BKN008 BKN026 OVC032 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0009= KSBN Z 32012G19KT 4SM +RA BR BKN008 BKN026 OVC032 08/06A2990= KSBN Z 32012G19KT 4SM +RA BR BKN008 BKN026 OVC032 08/06A2990= KSBN Z 33010KT 4SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN033 OVC046 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0012= KSBN Z 33010KT 4SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN033 OVC046 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0012= KSBN Z 32009KT 7SM RA FEW008 SCT024 OVC040 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP126 P0016 T = KSBN Z 32009KT 7SM RA FEW008 SCT024 OVC040 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP126 P0016 T = KSBN Z 33009KT 8SM -RA FEW008 BKN029 OVC049 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0002= KSBN Z 33009KT 8SM -RA FEW008 BKN029 OVC049 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0002= KSBN Z 32008KT 8SM -RA FEW029 OVC047 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0002= KSBN Z 32008KT 8SM -RA FEW029 OVC047 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0002= KSBN Z 31009KT 6SM RA BR FEW020 BKN037 OVC055 07/06 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP129 P T = KSBN Z 31009KT 6SM RA BR FEW020 BKN037 OVC055 07/06 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP129 P T = KSBN Z 29008KT 10SM -RA OVC050 07/05 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0003 T = KSBN Z 29008KT 10SM -RA OVC050 07/05 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0003 T = KSBN Z 28005KT 10SM -RA BKN035 OVC055 06/04 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0005 T = KSBN Z 28005KT 10SM -RA BKN035 OVC055 06/04 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0005 T = KSBN Z 23005KT 10SM BKN021 OVC030 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2 RAE0757 P0000= KSBN Z 23005KT 10SM BKN021 OVC030 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2 RAE0757 P0000= KSBN Z 23007KT 10SM BKN019 BKN027 OVC039 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2 RAE0757 SLP130 P T = KSBN Z 23007KT 10SM BKN019 BKN027 OVC039 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2 RAE0757 SLP130 P T =

South bend - OBS KSBN Z 24009KT 10SM FEW012 SCT027 OVC050 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2= KSBN Z 24009KT 10SM FEW012 SCT027 OVC050 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2= KSBN Z 24009KT 10SM BKN055 06/04 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP132 T = KSBN Z 24009KT 10SM BKN055 06/04 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP132 T = KSBN Z 24008KT 8SM FEW029 SCT037 OVC045 06/04 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP138 T = KSBN Z 24008KT 8SM FEW029 SCT037 OVC045 06/04 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP138 T = KSBN Z 23009KT 7SM BKN050 05/04 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP T = KSBN Z 23009KT 7SM BKN050 05/04 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP T = KSBN Z 25009KT 7SM FEW032 SCT041 BKN048 05/03 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP156 T = KSBN Z 25009KT 7SM FEW032 SCT041 BKN048 05/03 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP156 T = KSBN Z 25013G19KT 10SM BKN049 08/04 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP164 T = KSBN Z 25013G19KT 10SM BKN049 08/04 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP164 T = KSBN Z 27012KT 10SM BKN025 OVC045 07/03 A3003 RMK AO2= KSBN Z 27012KT 10SM BKN025 OVC045 07/03 A3003 RMK AO2= KSBN Z 27011KT 10SM SCT023 BKN040 OVC048 07/03 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP173 T = KSBN Z 27011KT 10SM SCT023 BKN040 OVC048 07/03 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP173 T = KSBN Z 27013KT 10SM BKN023 BKN029 OVC046 07/03 A3004= KSBN Z 27013KT 10SM BKN023 BKN029 OVC046 07/03 A3004= KSBN Z 27013KT 10SM BKN023 BKN029 OVC046 07/03 A3004 RMK AO2= KSBN Z 27013KT 10SM BKN023 BKN029 OVC046 07/03 A3004 RMK AO2= KSBN Z 27011KT 10SM SCT023 BKN040 OVC048 07/03 A3004= KSBN Z 27011KT 10SM SCT023 BKN040 OVC048 07/03 A3004=

South bend surface map

South bend - satellite

South bend -radar

South bend - verifications

South bend - survey scores

South bend – career scores

South bend – up close and personal

South bend – lessons learned Timing the front helped to determine the temperature and wind direction change.Timing the front helped to determine the temperature and wind direction change. Extra rainfall associated with more convergence and perhaps some added urban condensation nucleiExtra rainfall associated with more convergence and perhaps some added urban condensation nuclei The MOS errors were useful mainly for dew point adjustments. The heavier showers dropped the 0-6z min lower than expected due to evap cooling.The MOS errors were useful mainly for dew point adjustments. The heavier showers dropped the 0-6z min lower than expected due to evap cooling. Best forecasts are produced when you are closer to the location (like Madison ).Best forecasts are produced when you are closer to the location (like Madison ).

City two: paso robles, CA

Paso robles - Obs KPRB Z AUTO 19008KT 10SM CLR 16/10 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP141 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 19008KT 10SM CLR 16/10 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP141 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 21006G18KT 10SM CLR 15/11 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 21006G18KT 10SM CLR 15/11 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 21007KT 10SM BKN080 15/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP149 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 21007KT 10SM BKN080 15/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP149 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 21006KT 10SM FEW075 BKN085 14/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP148 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 21006KT 10SM FEW075 BKN085 14/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP148 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 22003KT 10SM BKN085 14/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP146 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 22003KT 10SM BKN085 14/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP146 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 13/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP146 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 13/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP146 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 05003KT 10SM CLR 12/10 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP143 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 05003KT 10SM CLR 12/10 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP143 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 12004KT 10SM CLR 10/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP141 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 12004KT 10SM CLR 10/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP141 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 09/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP137 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 09/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP137 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW021 09/07 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP139 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW021 09/07 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP139 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN019 09/08 A2995 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN019 09/08 A2995 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT019 OVC065 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT019 OVC065 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW019 OVC065 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP141 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW019 OVC065 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP141 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW021 OVC070 10/08 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW021 OVC070 10/08 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN021 BKN049 OVC070 10/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN021 BKN049 OVC070 10/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT021 SCT049 OVC070 11/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT021 SCT049 OVC070 11/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC070 11/09 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC070 11/09 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 T TSNO=

Paso robles - Obs KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC070 11/09 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC070 11/09 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 12/09 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP145 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 12/09 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP145 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN031 OVC065 16/11 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN031 OVC065 16/11 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 15006KT 10SM CLR 18/11 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP140 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 15006KT 10SM CLR 18/11 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP140 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 20012G19KT 10SM SCT029 BKN060 OVC070 16/12 A2997 RMK AO2 RAB30E48 SLP144 P0002 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 20012G19KT 10SM SCT029 BKN060 OVC070 16/12 A2997 RMK AO2 RAB30E48 SLP144 P0002 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 21009KT 10SM -RA FEW042 BKN070 17/12 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB07 SLP142 P0000 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 21009KT 10SM -RA FEW042 BKN070 17/12 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB07 SLP142 P0000 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 22009KT 10SM SCT065 BKN080 18/11 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE09 SLP133 P T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 22009KT 10SM SCT065 BKN080 18/11 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE09 SLP133 P T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 19006KT 10SM SCT090 19/10 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP126 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 19006KT 10SM SCT090 19/10 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP126 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO VRB05KT 10SM FEW070 19/09 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP124 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO VRB05KT 10SM FEW070 19/09 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP124 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 22005KT 10SM FEW060 BKN090 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 22005KT 10SM FEW060 BKN090 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP T TSNO=

Paso robles - Obs KPRB Z AUTO 22005KT 10SM FEW060 BKN090 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 22005KT 10SM FEW060 BKN090 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 23008KT 10SM SCT065 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP121 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 23008KT 10SM SCT065 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP121 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 20005KT 10SM CLR 17/08 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP128 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 20005KT 10SM CLR 17/08 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP128 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM SCT065 OVC090 15/11 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP132 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM SCT065 OVC090 15/11 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP132 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 22003KT 10SM BKN095 14/11 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP134 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 22003KT 10SM BKN095 14/11 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP134 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN100 14/10 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN100 14/10 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 30003KT 10SM BKN080 13/09 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP134 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 30003KT 10SM BKN080 13/09 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP134 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 29006KT 10SM BKN065 13/11 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP135 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 29006KT 10SM BKN065 13/11 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP135 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 27005KT 10SM SCT007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 27005KT 10SM SCT007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 28004KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 28004KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 29006KT 10SM BKN065 13/11 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP135 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 29006KT 10SM BKN065 13/11 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP135 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 27005KT 10SM SCT007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 27005KT 10SM SCT007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 28004KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 28004KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 27003KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 27003KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 27004KT 10SM OVC007 12/11 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP129 T TSNO= KPRB Z AUTO 27004KT 10SM OVC007 12/11 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP129 T TSNO=

Paso robles - surface

Paso robles – upper air

Paso robles - satellite

Paso robles - radar

Paso robles - verification

Career scores

Up close and personal Seems it never rains in southern California Seems I've often heard that kind of talk before It never rains in California, but girl, don't they warn ya? It pours, man, it poursSeems it never rains in southern California Seems I've often heard that kind of talk before It never rains in California, but girl, don't they warn ya? It pours, man, it pours

Lessons learned The formation of upper level lows along the west coast leads to sporadic showers that are mainly related to local effects.The formation of upper level lows along the west coast leads to sporadic showers that are mainly related to local effects. Despite the increased daytime instability, the marine layer can and does return at night, particularly on the north side of the low.Despite the increased daytime instability, the marine layer can and does return at night, particularly on the north side of the low. Winds are driven by terrain when there is no distinct surface feature.Winds are driven by terrain when there is no distinct surface feature. An upper level low drops temperatures below seasonal levels and decreases the diurnal variation.An upper level low drops temperatures below seasonal levels and decreases the diurnal variation.