Available products for Seasonal forecasting J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie.

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Presentation transcript:

Available products for Seasonal forecasting J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie

RA VI Web sites (1) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) / research/demeter/data Met Office (United Kingdom) (Password-protected section for NMSs and similar organisations)

RA VI Web sites (1) World Meteorological Centre Moscow (WMC) (Password for access is to be provided on request) Météo France (Seasonal forecasts) (Model anomalies) ftp site (Password-protected section for NMSs, similar organisations and specific users)

RA VI Web sites (1) World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) HOME/eps-home.htm#Long-range (EPS/LRF producing centres) Supplement5-AppI-4.html (Definitions of forecast ranges) systems.html (Verification system for Long-range forecast)

ECMWF Products Ocean Analysis Temperature anomaly along the equator (ocean cross-section), Sea level anomaly, Zonal wind stress anomaly 7-day mean, updated weekly Tropical belt Seasonal forecasts: Nino ’ s indices Nino 3, 3.4, 4 SST anomaly plumes

ECMWF Products Seasonal forecasts: Forecast maps Precipitation, Temperature at 2m, Mean sea level pressure, Sea surface temperature Ensemble mean value, Probability of below /above various thresholds Global and sub-areas Lead time from 1 to 3 months 3-month averages, updated monthly

Met Office Products Seasonal forecasts Temperature at 2m, Precipitations Ensemble mean value, Probability of below /above various thresholds Global Lead time from 1 to 3 months 3-month averages, updated monthly Forecasts for some specific regions and seasons (e.g. Sahel rainfall); winter NAO index SST for months 2-4, 3-5, 4-6; Nino3, Nino3.4, Nino4 SST anomaly ensemble plumes to 6 months ahead (planned for 2003).

Météo-France Products Seasonal forecasts Temperature at 850hPa, Precipitations, Geopotential Height at 500 hPa, Ensemble mean value and significance test, Probability of below /above various thresholds Global Lead time 1 month 3-month averages, updated monthly Model anomalies Precipitations,Temperature and geopotential at 850 hPa and 500 hPa, Sea Level Pressure, Temperature at 2 m, Wind speed at 10 m, Humidity at 700 hPa, Monthly, 3 and 12 overlapping monthly averages Monthly uptdated

Moscou Products Seasonal forecasts Precipitation, Z500, MSLP, T850, T2m Ensemble mean value and characteristics of uncertainty, Global Lead time 1 month 1 and 3-month ensemble mean, updated monthly

Other usefull Web sites ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cmb/Forecasts/enso html

The ECMWF Web site General public documentation public forecasts: “essential” WMO Members forecasts : “additional” Similar for Seasonal forecasts

The ECMWF Web site

The UKMO Web site Public and password protected area

The UKMO Web site

The Météo-France Web site Internal access at this stage

The Météo-France Web site

Model Climate Anomalies and Indices monthly computed for month, overlapping season and year (subjective comparison) Web site access : Follow-up – Climate and Model

Model Climate Anomalies and Indices