National Economic Indicators Ray Owens May 14, 2015

2 Q1 0.2% Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate FOMC Projection Note: Projection is the central tendency and range from the March 2015 Summary of Economic Projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

3 Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

4 Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics April

5 Millions of Persons April mil. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

6 Percent April 5.4% Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics Notes: FOMC projection is the range and central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the March 2015 meeting. FOMC Projection

7 Percent April Measures of Labor Utilization Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics U6: U5 + Involuntarily Part-Time U5: U3 + Discouraged + Marginally Attached U3: Official Unemployment Rate

8 Percent of Population April Labor Force Participation Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

9 Percent February Labor Market Flows Note: *Percent of total employment. **Percent of total employment plus job openings. Source: JOLTS via Haver Analytics Hires Rate* Job Openings Rate** Quits Rate*

10 Q4. Household Net Worth Percent of disposable personal income Source: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics

11 Disposable Personal Income & Expenditures Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 12 Month % Change Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Real Disposable Personal Income March Note: Real disposable personal Income was adjusted to remove tax-induced income shifting near end of 2012.

12 March 0.48 mil. Average Annual New Home Sales:1990 through 1999 New Single-Family Home Sales Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics Millions of Homes

13 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q1 0.1% Real Investment in Equipment Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

14 Diffusion Index, percent April 51.5 Indexes of Manufacturing Activity Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics ISM (Left Axis) Richmond Fed (Right Axis)

15 Exchange Value of the USD Index, March 1973 = 100 Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar. April

16 Current $, Billions Non-Petroleum Balance Balance of International Trade Note: Customs Value of Trade Balance Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics Petroleum Balance March Bil. Trade Balance

17 March 0.3% FOMC Projection Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index 12 Month % Change Notes: FOMC projection is the range and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the March 2015 meeting. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 2% Longer-run Target

18 Year over Year % Change Alternate Series Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index. Q1 1.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

19 Spot Price May 11th 2015 Crude Oil Prices Current $/ Barrel Source: Financial Times & New York Mercantile Exchange via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg Futures Price Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil.

20 Federal Funds Target Rate May 8th Primary Credit Rate Monetary Policy Instruments Percent Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics Federal Funds Rate Target Range Interest Rate Paid on Reserves

21 FOMC Statement Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated, and the unemployment rate remained steady. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined; households' real incomes rose strongly, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, and consumer sentiment remains high. Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing sector remained slow, and exports declined. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term. Source: Board of Governors April 29, 2015

22 Continued… The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Source: Board of Governors March 18, 2015

23 Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate Percent Source: Board of Governors Note: Each dot in the chart represents the value of an FOMC participant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range (or the appropriate target level) for the federal funds rate at the end of the calendar year. Projections made for the March 2015 meeting.