2013 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON June 1 – December 30 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

OVER 100 YEARS OF HISTORY: ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION SEVERE WINDSTORMS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK SEVERE WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS Wind profile Storm Hazards: -Wind pressure -Surge -Rain -Flood -Waves -Salt water -Missiles -TornadoesOceanOcean Gradient Wind

PRE-SEASON FORECAST OF THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION FORECAST: NAMED STORMS WITH 7-10 BECOMING HURRICANES

STORM NAMES 2013 SEASON

CHRONOLOGY OF 2013’s STORMS ANDREA - Tropical Storm; June 5 BARRY - Tropical Storm; June 19 CHANTAL – Tropical Storm; July 7 DORIAN – Tropical Storm; July 22 ERIN – Tropical Storm; August 14 FERNAND –Trop. Storm; August 16 GABRIELLE – Trop. Storm; Aug. 25

CHRONOLOGY OF 2013’S STORMS HUMBERTO – Hurricane; Sept 10 INGRID – Hurricane; Sept. 13 JERRY – Tropical storm; Sept. 30 KAREN – Tropical storm; Oct. 3 LORENZO – MELISSA – NESTOR –

CHRONOLOGY OF 2013’S STORMS OLGA – PABLO – REBEKAH – SEBASTIEN – TANYA – VAN -- WENDY --

STORM TRACKS OF ANDREA, BARRY, CHANTAL, AND DORIAN

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA --- FIRST STORM OF 2013 SEASON A Rain Maker

ANDREA: JUNE 5, 2013

ANDREA’S IMPACTS The precursor to Andrea dropped nearly 12 inches (300 mm) of rainfall in the Yucatán Peninsula. In Cuba, the storm brought flooding, especially in the Pinar del Rio Province, and over 1,000 people fled their homes, mainly along the Cuyaguateje River..

ANDREA’S IMPACTS In Florida, the storm brought heavy rainfall that caused localized flooding and five tornadoes that downed power lines and trees and caused significant roof damage. As Andrea died, heavy rains occurred in the Eastern United States and Atlantic Canada, causing flooding in Nova Scotia..

TROPICAL STORM BARRY --- SECOND STORM OF 2013 SEASON A Rain Maker and Power Disupter

BARRY: JUNE 19, 2013

BARRY’S IMPACTS In the Mexican state of Yucatan, wind gusted up to 48 mph (77 km/h) and heavy rains downed trees and power lines; more than 26,000 residents lost power after lightning struck a nearby power station and caused a fire. El Salvador experienced flooding.

BARRY’S IMPACTS Heavy rains in Honduras triggered flooding that damaged 60 homes and affected 300 people. In southern Belize, an estimated 10 in (250 mm) of rain fell in 24 hours, causing several rivers to over-top their banks and some to evacuate. ] ]

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL --- THIRD STORM OF 2013 SEASON A Rain Maker

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL: JULY 8, 2013

A tropical storm warning was issued for Puerto Rico, Barbados, Dominica, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, and Miami. July 8th

CHANTAL’S IMPACTS Chantal produced heavy rainfall in Hispaniola, forcing thousands to evacuate their homes. In the Dominican Republic, flooding from the storm killed one person in Maimon. 1 ] 1 ]

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN --- FOURTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON Rain in florida was Most Notable Impact

DORIAN

TROPICAL STORM ERIN --- FIFTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON A Short Lived Storm With no Notable Impact

TROPICAL STORM ERIN

TROPICAL STORM FERDNAND --- SIXTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON Tropical Storm Ferdnand brought heavy rainfall near Veracruz, killing fourteen

FERDNAND AUGUST 16, 2013

AUGUST 16 th REVISED FORECAST OF THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION FORECAST: STILL AN ABOVE NOMAL SEASON, BUT ONLY 3 TO 5 MAJOR HURRICANES

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE --- SEVENTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON No Notable Impacts

GABRIELLE

ACTUAL STORM TRACKS AS OF SEPTEMBER 15, 2013

SEPTEMBER 9 th “2013 SEASON MAY GO IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS A “DUD””

REASONS FOR A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SEASON

"A large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic has been very strong and very good at driving dry air southward into the tropics into September." Generally it is easier for tropical storms to form and tropical storms to streng- then into hurricanes when an un- obstructed supply of moisture available

REASONS FOR A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SEASON Frequent surges of wind shear [disruptive winds at mid-levels of the atmosphere] have occurred during the 2013 season. Wind shear tends to disrupt the circulation around a developing system, shearing off the top of the system or causing it to be very lop- sided.

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO --- EIGHTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON Became Season’s 1 st Hurricane DISSIPATED QUICKLY DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR IN ATMOSPHERE

HUMBERTO: SEPTEMBER 9-11, 2013

TROPICAL STORM INGRID --- NINTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON Became Season’s 2 nd Hurricane September 13 A RAINMAKER IN MEXICO THAT CAUSED DEATHS

INGRID: NEADED FOR MEXICO SEPTEMBER 13, 2013

TROPICAL STORM JERRY --- TENTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON September 30 DIED BEFORE IT COULD DO ANYTHING

TROPICAL STORM KAREN --- ELVENTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON October 3 EXPECTED TO BE A RAINMAKER IN THE USA

KAREN: HEADED FOR USA LANDFALL: OCT. 3, 2013

KAREN: FAVORABLE FACTORS: OCT. 3-5, 2013

LOOKING BACK AT 2012

2012’s ACTUAL STORMS EXCEEDED THE FORECAST FORECAST: 15 NAMED STORMS WITH 4-8 BECOMING HURRICANES

ACTUAL: TWENTY NAMED STORMS; 10 HURRICANES

NAMED STORMS IN 2012 ALBERTO - Tropical storm; May 19 BERYL - Tropical storm; May 27 CHRIS – Hurricane; June 21 DEBBY – Tropical storm; June 23 ERNESTO –Hurricane; Aug 3 FLORENCE –Tropical storm: Aug 5 GORDON –Hurricane, August 16

NAMED STORMS FOR 2012 HELENE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 19 ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21 JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25 KIRK –Tropical Storm. Aug. 27 LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 5 MICHAEL –Hurricane, Sept. 5 NADINE – Hurricane, Sept. 12

NAMED STORMS IN 2012 OSCAR – Tropical Storm; Oct. 4 PATTY – Tropical Storm; Oct. 11 RAFAEL – Hurricane; October 12 SANDY – A Super Hurricane; October 22 TONY – Tropical Storm; Oct. 24

SANDY: A $300 BILLION STORM; OCTOBER 24, 2012 Sandy, 2012’s ninth hurricane, became a huge storm with wind and rain bands reaching out 500 km or more from the storm center, producing cm of rain and flooding in Jamaica, Bermuda, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, New Jersey, and New York

CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24

SUPER STORM SANDY: OCT , 2012

SANDY: RAIN IN HAITI

SANDY: RAIN IN CUBA

NEW JERSEY: ATLANTIC CITY UNDER WATER

NEW JERSEY: OCEAN FRONT FLOODING

NEW JERSEY: STREETS FLOODED

FLOODING IN BROOKLYN, NY

$360 MILLION STORM SURGE, NEW HAVEN, CT: OCT. 30