18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens1 Activities & Plans 2007 Dijana Klaric Met service of Croatia RC LACE Project Leader

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens2 RC LACE report  Environment &  R&D highlights  Operations and Common actions Project Evaluation Future

F,Ro,Bg,Cz,Hu,Sk,PL,A,Mc,Si,Cr,B,Pt,Tu,Al (Mo,Tk, ) --I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I----I---I----I ALADIN Project

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens4 ALADIN Project > oR&D project oMembers with different NWP ambitions MF-LACE backbone Structure & Budget LACE Project >  Operations and R&D project  Members sharing the ambitions  Romania membership (November 2006)  Central and SE Europe LACE is a tool for ALADIN activity in C&SE E

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens5 Regional Cooperation environment Members: Au-Cr-Cz-Hu- Ro -Si-Sk Co-operation: R&D on meso-scale NWP Operations Common actions RC LACE MoU RC LACE Budget  7 NWP teams  LACE MG Project Leader, 4 Working Group Leaders, ALADIN SC, Data Manager MF partner ALADIN partners HIRLAM SRNWP

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens6 R&D overview LACE Scientific Plans 2006; 2007 Ä main input for ALADIN Scientific plans Ä IFS environment (spectral space): Arpege( Global ) -Aladin(Alaro 10km ) -Arome ( 2.5km ) Ä R&D working groups: Dynamics, Physics, Data Assimilation, Predictability Ä 40 scientists: 7 NWP teams + visitors Ä pxm funds Leading NWP results: NH Dynamics -->>>

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens7 Dynamics and Coupling Ä NH ALADIN Dynamics - core for NH ALADIN and AROME models - tests at ECMWF ( to become the next IFS dynamics) - Vertical finite elements (Hy, NH ) Ä Other dynamical issues SLHD filter Dynamics –Physics interface TL/AD for ALADIN SL – (4D Var tool)

18-21 Sept 2007 VFE for NH ALADIN -more accurate then Finite Differences -coded for Hy (Hortal ) and NH (Vivoda) -Stability tests (stil noisy at BC) Results: Ref FD, 35lev, dt=5s Ref VFE, 35lev, dt=5s X-term, Z-term-FD Ref FD, 100lev, dt=5s Ref VFE, 100lev, dt=5s (X-term, Z-term-FD)

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens9 SLHD – Semi Lagrangian Horizontal Diffusion - non-linear scheme -triggered by flow field deformation -special care to control orography triggered noise Results: on Prognostic Physics variables TKE over flat orog. AROMEAROME

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens10 Physics System AAA Arpege(Global) -Aladin(Alaro10km) -Arome (2.5km) Physic packages : ALADIN/ARPEGE - global and LAM- sharing phy. meso-NH physics - base for AROME meso-γ model ALARO physics - multi-scale physics for 10-5km: New governing equ. and progn. water species

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens11 Physics (10km->5km) ALARO transition  ALARO-0, step 1 (system) Equations and interface (loss of mass due to precipitation is considered ) ; Prognostic cloud water (microphysics 5 water species); Radiation –NER formulation; Turbulence (pseudo- prognostic TKE scheme); Cloudiness issue (improved optical properties, new saturation cloud model)  ALARO-0, step 2 (multi-scale, “grey-zone”) Sub-grib scale convection - 3MT Microphysics and Transport for SGS convection 3MT - Microphysics and Transport for SGS convection +Multiscale +Modular =3MT

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens12 ALARO Diagnostics Ä Model consistency and performance (ALARO: more memory, less CPU – better optinimized) Ä DDH tool for diagnostic (IFS basic, AAA developed) Ä Model comparison ALARO vs ALADIN Phy Ä ALARO –v0: operative at CZ, Be,..... (new ALADIN)

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens13 MT + additional prognostic variables + cascading microphysics  relevant for « grey zone »  2MT.MT + additional prognostic variables + cascading microphysics  relevant for « grey zone »  2MT. 2MT: Multiscale Microphysics and Transport. 7 km 4 km 2 km 7 km 4 km 2 km Cas du 10/09/2005. Cumul de précipitation en 1h (mm). Source Gerard (QJRMS 2007). 2MT – What has been done – Results (J-M Piriou, Radostovice, ALARO Training and WS) 2MT – What has been done – Results (J-M Piriou, Radostovice, ALARO Training and WS)

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens14 ALARO plans 2007-> Ä Governing equations: extension to compressible case (NH) Ä Pseudo-prognostic TKE-scheme: new mixing length formulation; an 'analytical' CBR interpretation within p-TKE Ä Gravity wave drag parametrization: re-tune for no- envelope orography Ä 3MT: validation and tuning, sensitivity to mid- troposphere humidity, test of convection diurnal cycle (Team; JF Geleyn, JM Piriou, B Catry, L Gerard, R Brozkova, N Pristov,M Tudor, F Vana, J Masek, D Banciu......)

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens15 Data Assimilation Research focus  Ensemble B matrics  3D-FGAT –ALADIN (transition to 4D-Var)  Observations AMV, SEVIRI  Blending initialization (with surface OI –CANARI) Randriamampianina) (team:Boloni,Kertesz, Trojakova,Majek, Randriamampianina) ALADIN/ 3D VAR – HMS ∆x=12 km; 37 vertical L 6 hour cycle 3D-VAR for the upper air fields substitution of the surface fields by the ARPEGE ones B matrix: NMC method LBC: long cut-off ARPEGE analysis, 3 h coupling frequency

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens16 3D FGAT - hourly SYNOPs, AIREP, SATOB increments tests; observation window; Results:3D FGAT vs 3DVar (all measurements) Red- 3D FGAT better (Z,RH, U,V) RMSBIASRMSBIAS

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens17 SEVIRI data analysis by ALADIN -3DVar Tests:  with 2 ways for B Matrix computation: NMC vs Ensemble  diff 3D Var resolutions (12km/37L vs 8km/45L)  Tuning of obs-error statistics Results on SEVIRI impact :  Impact be similar to ATOVS data (AMSU-A or AMSU-B) assimilated in high resolution;  Impact depending on the parameters (Rh, Z) and model levels;  Negative impact near the surface needs further tests with more surface measurements (2m T, 2m RH) -coupled with SEVIRI

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens18 WG on Predictability Research focus Uncertenties at initial conditions ALADIN Singular Vector (SV) Breeding, ET, ETKF, blending Blending ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN perturbation Multi-physics parameterizations ( 11 mem, diff tuning, diff schem.) Downscaling of ECMWF EPS Clustering approaches for downscaling ECMWF EPS ( ECMWF Tech. Memo.507, Jan 2007) (team: Wang, Kann, Horanyi, Bellus, Ivatek-Sahdan, Hagel,etc)

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens19 Uncertenties at initial conditions T-perturbations for: SV, breeding, blended Blending: ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN perturbation  Blended perturbations have the highest spread (red curve)

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens20 Multi-physics option11 members, Bougeault-type, Kain-Fritsch deep convection scheme, moisture convergence and CAPE closure in the convection scheme, Kessler-type scheme for LP,Lopez microphysics scheme

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens21 WG on Predictability Common tools and products Verification package LAEF products Down. of ECMWF EPS (16+cont, 18 km) -EPS grams -Probability charts -Stamps Planned: -Multi-physics -Blending

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens ALADIN-LACE-HIRLAM actions ALARO training at Radostovice, March participants all LACE Members (+ MF, Be, PT, Mc + Denmark) GLAMEPS Project at ECMWF ( HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACE EPS project) ALADIN-HIRLAM coordination on SURFACE and DA issues ALADIN-HIRLAM general WS at Oslo April 2007  LACE training on CANARI at Budapest, Nov 2007

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens23 GLAMEPS “grand” EPS Meso-scale real-time EPS >100 members  HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACE  alterative of using several sub-European and less populated ensemble systems which single NMSs could run on their own  Common: operations, product distribution and verification  Desirable set-ups : „large” domain: 22km, 37 levels, 320 x 300 points, +60h int. Two phases Laboratory phase at ECMWF ( )  Distributed production stage ( )

18-21 Sept 2007 GLAMEPS_v0 - test phase HIRLAM -66 members  ECMWF targeted singular vectors (TSV)  OT - 24h -3 TSV domains - 2 HIRLAM physics - ( 10 memx2 mod x3dom) ALADIN – 20 members  Downscaling of ECMWF EPS 22km/44km ALADIN  lat/lon post-proc. (INM sys)  Next step: ALADIN native singular vectors (tests) (OT =+12h, +24h)

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens25 FDP MAP D-Phase MAP D-phase Demonstration Project (June-Nov 2007) - Probabilistic hydrological and meteorological simulations for heavy rains and flood events - Contribution of LACE via Austrian team - ALADIN/Austria for deterministic products (∆x= 9.6km, 45 levels, dyn. adaptation) - ALADIN LAEF probability products (24h precipitation) (∆x= 18km, 37 levels, 16 mem +contr. from ECMWF EPS) - Disseminated to MAP D-Phase center

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens26 RC LACE common actions Centralized Verification: (Ljubljana)  Client/server system  All ALADIN mod. results  Tool for basic scores (synoptic scale)  Monthly reporting procedure  Portable to members ODB activities: (Data Manager; Budapest) ODB training ODB help-desk Interactive Obs. Monitoring for Var DA  Monthly reporting procedure  QC for each station  Comparison of Var DA results Exchange of HR observations monitoring of obs network at MS

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens27 (public and private zone)

RC LACE Operations: +72h integration, 00 (06),12, (18) UTC runs DomainHor. res. Vert.res. PhysicsConfig. A 300x t2 (29t2, Lopez) e001,CANARI (INCA), LAEF Cr 229x t1, SHLD, new phy, mean orog. e001, DADA, ODB Cz 320x t2, SLHD, new phy., mean orog. DFI blending, CANARI, ODB e001, ALARO phy. H 432x t33DVAR, CANARI, e001, DADA Si 258x t2, SHLD, low cloudiness e001, DADA Sk 320x t3e001, DADA, (INCA),ODB

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens29 RC LACE Evaluation Project Evaluation after 10 years of common activities ( )  Goals: - To provide objective view of Project - To range a LACE to NWP objectives - To give independent advices about future development  Input for new LACE structure 2008->

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens30 General recommendations (Quality of Project)  Strategy and planning (short-term, long-term; users demands)  Management structure (competence, authority)  Internal/external communications (WWW, visibility, NWP consortia)  Role of NWP systems at LACE centers (AAA models as the primary subjects)

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens31 Recommendations for Task Sharing Reasons: To overcome the duplication of the operational efforts. To suppress draining of resources on maintaining and downstream applications. To provide small NWP centers with a complete NWP system. Methods: Define the common tasks Agreement on Lead Centres for specific areas Lead Centers: ofor research ofor operations Results:  Efficient use of the available manpower.  Specialisation of the NWP teams.

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens32 LACE Future >  Political decision for the closer operative cooperation (toward the Projects with operative deliverables)  Leading centers => Responsible center  Bottom-up => Top-down planning  Action Plan for implementation of (Working Group)  LACE 10-years strategy  LACE MoU III

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens33 „How LACE can respond to NWP competition in Europe“  Provide better NWP quality, e.g. data assimilation  Provide higher reliability, e.g. hardware  Provide better price/performance ratio  Provide better customer service, e.g. documentation in local language  Provide more flexibility, e.g. product generation  Provide tailored products for customers, e.g. hydrology

18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens34 LACE teams 2007 ~45 scientists (+-) (7 LACE MG) A – 5 + Haiden,Wang,Wittmann, Kann,Leroch (Stadlbacher, Seidel,Pistotnik) Cr – 7 +Kovacic, Klaric,Tudor, Ivatek-Sahdan, Stanesic, Drvar, Kalin, (Horvath, Kraljevic) Cz – 6 +Brozkova, Vana, Trojakova, Mladek, Januosek, Kral, (Smolikova, Prisutova) Hu – 5 Horanyi, Boloni, Kulmann, Voros, Hagel, (Toth, Kertesz, Randriamampianina =>newcommer) Ro – 5 Banciu, Stefanescu, Tascu, Ibanescu, Radu Si – 5 Zagar, Pristov, Cedilnik, Strajnar,Jerman Sk – 7 Masek, Spaniel, Vivoda, Bellus, Derkova, Bastak, Jurasek, (Larrieu,Simon, Majek)

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18-21 Sept 20079th COSMO meeting, Athens36 RC LACE LBC transfer  RETIM 2000 satellite dissemination - costly, one-way comm. - canceled 1 Aug  Re-routing of LBC data via ECMWF  RMDCN migration to IPVPN MPLS RMDCN Classes of the services D1=75%D2=20%D3=5%  GTS  ECMW F  Env. warning LACE LBC Radar Lightings SW diss. EUMET ECaccess Satellite other