Ashok Gulati and Shweta Saini (Chair Professor and Consultant, respectively) Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) NCAER.

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Presentation transcript:

Ashok Gulati and Shweta Saini (Chair Professor and Consultant, respectively) Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) NCAER Workshop on ‘Medium Term Outlook for India’s Food Sector’, June 26, New Delhi

 Depends on Technology & delivery systems ◦ Our productivity levels in rice, wheat and maize still way below what current technology can provide ◦ Challenge of delivering good seeds and farming practices ◦ Investments in irrigation will have large pay offs  Incentive Structures: ◦ Tilted towards wheat and rice through MSP regime ◦ Broadly following global prices with some time lag

WPI- Cereals above is calculated for Rice, wheat and Maize only as the FAO Cereals’ Index comprises of these

Some notable ones are: Bhalla, Hazell and Kerr (1999): India will import mt of grains by 2020 Planning Commission (GoI, 2006): demand- supply deficit of 10 mt by Binswanger, Parikh, et.al (2011): could be 70 mt of imports by 2039

Supply-demand gap in 2010/ (mt) CommoditiesStudiesDemandSupplyGap (supply less demand) Total CerealsKumar (1998) 225 (4%)248.4 (cons TFP growth) 23.4/ 24.1/ (5%) (7%)229.2 (dec TFP growth) 4.2/4.9/5.5 Total Cereals PC (2006 ) 214.3(4.8%) Pulses19.9(4.8%) Total Food grains (4.8%)

Supply-demand gap in 2020/ (million tonnes) CommoditiesStudiesDemandSupplySupply- Demand Gap Total CerealsRosegrant et al. (1995) (at 3-4% PCY growth) Total CerealsKumar (1998) 267 (4%)309.0 (cons TFP growth) 42/43.2/ (5%) (7%)269.9 (dec TFP growth) 2.9/4.1/4.2 Total CerealsBhalla et al. (1999) (2%) / / (3.7%) (6%) /-36.3/

Demand Cereals (mt) Pulses2225 Total grains SupplyCereals Pulses18-21 Total

A big unknown? Poultry-corn-soya showing trends How far will poultry and dairy go to demand grains as feed? Will structural transformation in dairy and poultry sector trigger this demand? 20? 30? 40? 50mt? in the next 10 years Currently shortage of fodder (dry, green) about 40% Will today’s exports of oilmeals be feeding our cattle tomorrow?

Next 5-10 years, ample scope to raise productivity and production of grains for food and feed… question of right incentives and investments… India will keep feeding itself in cereals, except for some occasional dips caused by bad weather Will remain dependent on imports for edible oils unless some major policy decisions are taken to turn around (oil palm on one million hectares)…

 Live to dressed, how many years/decades?  From road side slaughterhouse/vendor to organized systems…when will food safety concerns drive it? Any lessons from dairy?  Of legs and breasts! When will cut legs start pouring in? (import duty 100% in 2014)