American Government and Organization PS1301 Friday, 30 January

Public Interest in the 2000 Presidential Election

Importance of Early Primaries Momentum Depends on expectations

Expectations in NH Source: NH Poll, American Research Group

Voters in New Hampshire

Past experience Underdogs have seen their support rise from an early win in Iowa and NH. Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent) Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent) Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent) Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent) McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)

Impact of Iowa and NH Only Carter won the nomination In every year since 1980 the front-running candidate who led in the last poll conducted before Iowa still ended up winning the nomination. Compact schedule (front loading) can kill the momentum from New Hampshire

Impact of New Hampshire Primary

Opinion about the Candidates

Front loading 70% of all delegates are chosen before the end of March Benefits the front runner Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of the money before the nomination process Increases the importance of the “invisible primary”—the year prior to the official nomination season when candidates raise money

Beginning Schedule in 2004 JANUARY 19, 2004: Iowa - Presidential Caucuses JANUARY 27, 2004: New Hampshire - Presidential Primary FEBRUARY 3, 2004: Arizona - Presidential Primary Delaware - Presidential Primary Missouri - Presidential Primary New Mexico - Presidential Caucuses Oklahoma - Presidential Primary South Carolina - Presidential Primary FEBRUARY 7, 2004: Michigan - Presidential Caucuses Washington State - Democratic Presidential Caucuses FEBRUARY 8, 2004: Maine - Presidential Caucuses FEBRUARY 10, 2004: District of Columbia - Democratic Presidential Caucuses Tennessee - Presidential Primary Virginia - Democratic Presidential Primary FEBRUARY 17, 2004: Wisconsin - Presidential Primary

Web resource Washington Post Washington Post CNN Election report CNN Election report

Deck is stacked against outsiders, under dogs Half of the Republican delegates awarded after the first six weeks. News coverage and public interest fades shortly after the primary season begins

The Republican Primary in 2000

Democratic Delegates The Democratic Party allots a number of delegates to each state based on population (as measured by electoral college votes) and the number of votes the Democratic presidential candidate received in the last general election. The party assigns states additional delegate slots, called "Superdelegates," for Democratic elected officials, party leaders and Democratic members of Congress. Superdelegates are included in the totals Delegates needed to win: 2,162 Total Delegates: 4,322

Delegate Selection Rules