Happiness and Elections: Preliminary Slides from the ALP February 22, 2009

About the American Life Panel (ALP) The ALP is a subset of the Health and Retirement Study and includes respondents who agreed to participate in a series of Internet-based survey modules or waves The analysis shown here is based on six survey waves: four during the primary season between April and June, one on the eve of the general election, and one immediately following the election Each wave asks about levels of happiness, political affiliation, presidential choice, and other related questions The panel nature of the data allows us to look at how changes in these variables are related

About the American Life Panel (ALP) The principal variable of interest, happiness, is measured two ways:  Happiness index (0-100): A composite based on a series of indicator questions of whether in the last week the respondent felt happy, felt sad, enjoyed life, and felt depressed. Higher values indicate grater happiness.  Likert-type happiness scale: This variable exists only for the pre- and post- election survey, and records an 8-point scale for how happy the respondent is that day, with higher values indicating greater happiness. We also examine the relationship of the happiness measures to how sensitive respondents report their emotional reactions are to daily news and events We are also interested in how sensitive reported happiness is to personally unexpected events; e.g., the results of a presidential election

Changes in political affiliation (April through June) Likelihood of changing political affiliation (in percentage points) Any changeLeave RepJoin Dem Happiness index, (0-1, in hundredths) (0.015)(0.024)(0.012) N McFadden's R-squared Likelihood of changing candidate choice (in percentage points) Any changeParty changeTo Dem Happiness index, (0-1, in hundredths) (0.020)(0.017) N McFadden's R-squared Notes: Coefficients represent mean marginal effects of initial happiness index from a logit model that also includes survey wave fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered on the individual respondent.

Strength of preferences and happiness reaction (1a): Pre- and post-election waves Contemporaneous intensity of preferences and happiness, pre-election Dependent variable is Happiness Index (0-100) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8) Strong partisan (0,1) (1.891)(3.001) % chance vote for cand (0.041)(0.121) Obama Therm (0-100) (0.045)(0.086) Biden Therm (0-100) (0.044)(0.076) McCain Therm (0-100) (0.043)(0.090) Palin Therm (0-100) (0.043)(0.079) US worse off w/ oth cand. (1-5) (0.848)(1.348) Used camp. paraph. (0,1) (2.095)(3.429) Donated money (0,1) (2.123)(3.709) Minutes on election, 24 hrs (0.004)(0.007) Duel bid ($)0.000 (0.000) N R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.

Strength of preferences and happiness reaction (1b): Pre- and post-election waves Contemporaneous intensity of preferences and happiness, pre-election Dependent variable is Likert Happiness Scale (1-8) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8) Strong partisan (0,1) (0.067)(0.105) % chance vote for cand (0.001)(0.004) Obama Therm (0-100) (0.001)(0.003) Biden Therm (0-100) (0.002)(0.003) McCain Therm (0-100)0.003 (0.002)(0.003) Palin Therm (0-100) (0.002)(0.003) US worse off w/ oth cand. (1-5) (0.031)(0.047) Used camp. paraph. (0,1) (0.070)(0.120) Donated money (0,1) (0.070)(0.129) Minutes on election, 24 hrs (0.000) Duel bid ($)0.000 (0.000) N R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.

Strength of preferences and happiness reaction (2): Pre- and post-election waves Contemporaneous intensity of preferences and happiness, post-election Happiness Index (0-100)Likert Happiness Scale (1-8) US better or worse off (1-5, 5 greatest) (0.890)(0.033) N R-squared All results are from OLS regressions.

Strength of preferences and happiness reaction (3a): Pre- and post-election waves Pre-election intensity of preferences and happiness, post-election Dependent variable is Happiness Index (0-100) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8) Strong partisan (0,1) (2.006)(3.076) % chance vote for cand (0.042)(0.118) Obama Therm (0-100) (0.048)(0.086) Biden Therm (0-100) (0.046)(0.076) McCain Therm (0-100) (0.051)(0.093) Palin Therm (0-100) (0.045)(0.079) US worse off w/ oth cand. (1-5) (0.880)(1.380) Used camp. paraph. (0,1) (2.258)(3.497) Donated money (0,1) (2.261)(3.757) Minutes on election, 24 hrs (0.004)(0.007) Duel bid ($)0.000 (0.000) N R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.

Strength of preferences and happiness reaction (3b): Pre- and post-election waves Pre-election intensity of preferences and happiness, post-election Dependent variable is Likert Happiness Scale (1-8) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8) Strong partisan (0,1) (0.085)(0.126) % chance vote for cand (0.002)(0.005) Obama Therm (0-100)0.008 (0.002)(0.004) Biden Therm (0-100) (0.002)(0.003) McCain Therm (0-100) (0.002)(0.004) Palin Therm (0-100) (0.002)(0.003) US worse off w/ oth cand. (1-5) (0.037)(0.057) Used camp. paraph. (0,1) (0.096)(0.143) Donated money (0,1) (0.096)(0.154) Minutes on election, 24 hrs (0.0002)(0.000) Duel bid ($)0.000 (0.000) N R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.

Strength of preferences and happiness reaction (4a): Pre- and post-election waves Pre-election intensity of preferences and change in happiness, pre-to-post-election Dependent variable is ΔHappiness Index (-100 to 100) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8) Strong partisan (0,1) (1.752)(2.685) % chance vote for cand (0.036)(0.103) Obama Therm (0-100) (0.041)(0.075) Biden Therm (0-100) (0.040)(0.067) McCain Therm (0-100) (0.045)(0.081) Palin Therm (0-100) (0.039)(0.069) US worse off w/ oth cand. (1-5) (0.751)(1.205) Used camp. paraph. (0,1) (1.939)(3.053) Donated money (0,1) (1.941)(3.280) Minutes on election, 24 hrs (0.004)(0.006) Duel bid ($)0.000 (0.000) N R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.

Strength of preferences and happiness reaction (4b): Pre- and post-election waves Pre-election intensity of preferences and change in happiness, pre-to-post-election Dependent variable is ΔLikert Happiness Scale (-6 to 6) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8) Strong partisan (0,1) (0.082)(0.114) % chance vote for cand (0.002)(0.004) Obama Therm (0-100) (0.002)(0.003) Biden Therm (0-100) (0.002)(0.003) McCain Therm (0-100) (0.002)(0.003) Palin Therm (0-100) (0.002)(0.003) US worse off w/ oth cand. (1-5) (0.036)(0.051) Used camp. paraph. (0,1) (0.093)(0.130) Donated money (0,1) (0.093)(0.139) Minutes on election, 24 hrs (0.000) Duel bid ($) (0.000) N R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.

Emotional sensitivity and happiness reaction (1): Pre- and post-election waves Pre-election emotional sensitivity measures and post-election happiness Happy (Index)Happy (Likert)ΔHappy (Index)ΔHappy (Likert)Δ|Happy (Index)|Δ|Happy (Likert)| Dummy: McCain (6.41)(0.269)(5.49)(0.255)(5.05)(0.198) Dummy: Other (12.75)(0.535)(10.92)(0.507)(10.03)(0.393) Emotional Reaction Sensitivity (1.89)(0.079)(1.61)(0.075)(1.48)(0.058) McCain * Sensitivity (2.74)(0.115)(2.34)(0.109)(2.16)(0.085) Other * Sensitivity (5.33)(0.224)(4.56)(0.212)(4.19)(0.165) N R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Columns are separate regressions. Omitted category is Obama as candidate choice. Emotional Reaction Sensitivity is on a {1,2,3,4} scale, with lower values indicating greater sensitivity. Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.

Emotional sensitivity and happiness reaction (2): Pre- and post-election waves Pre-election emotional control measures and post-election happiness Happy (Index)Happy (Likert)ΔHappy (Index)ΔHappy (Likert)Δ|Happy (Index)|Δ|Happy (Likert)| Dummy: McCain (4.76)(0.204)(4.29)(0.199)(3.84)(0.156) Dummy: Other (8.96)(0.384)(8.07)(0.375)(7.23)(0.293) Life is like a rollercoaster (0.70)(0.030)(0.63)(0.029)(0.56)(0.023) McCain * rollercoaster (1.00)(0.043)(0.90)(0.042)(0.81)(0.033) Other * rollercoaster (2.06)(0.088)(1.86)(0.086)(1.67)(0.067) N R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Columns are separate regressions. Omitted category is Obama as candidate choice. Rollercoaster is on a {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8} scale, with lower values indicating greater agreement. Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.

Bonus Slide: No Sarah Palin Effect Despite much talk that Sarah Palin energized the Republican base, the ALP data do not bear this out: Likelihood of voting for McCain/Palin ticket (in percentage points) Coefficient x 100Std Err Feeling toward Barack Obama (0-100) Feeling toward Joe Biden (0-100) Feeling toward John McCain (0-100) Feeling toward Sarah Palin (0-100) N1492 McFadden's R-squared0.739 Perceived feeling toward John McCain had four times the average marginal effect as feeling toward Sarah Palin in determining whether an ALP respondent voted Republican.

Crosstabs: ΔHappiness Pre- and post-election waves Notes: Numbers represent the mean happiness difference in the quartile shown for the happiness measure shown. By Quartiles of Obamamania IndexLikertCombined All Pro-Obama 1 －－－ Against Obama －－－

Crosstabs: ΔHappiness Pre- and post-election waves Notes: Numbers represent the mean happiness difference in the quartile shown for the happiness measure shown. By Quartiles of Surprise IndexLikertCombined All Pro-Obama Against Obama

Crosstabs: ΔHappiness Pre- and post-election waves Notes: Numbers represent the mean happiness difference in the quartile shown for the happiness measure shown. By Quartiles of Emotional Sensitivity IndexLikertCombined All Pro-Obama Against Obama

Crosstabs: ΔHappiness Pre- and post-election waves Notes: Numbers represent the mean happiness difference in the quartile shown for the happiness measure shown. Obamamania Quartile by Surprise Quartile Surprise quartile 1234 Index Obama- mania quartile Likert Obama- mania quartile Combined Obama- mania quartile

Crosstabs: ΔHappiness Pre- and post-election waves Notes: Numbers represent the mean happiness difference in the quartile shown for the happiness measure shown. Obamamania Quartile by Emotional Sensitivity Quartile Emotional Sensitivity quartile 1234 Index Obama- mania quartile Likert Obama- mania quartile Combined Obama- mania quartile

Crosstabs: ΔHappiness Pre- and post-election waves Notes: Numbers represent the mean happiness difference in the quartile shown for the happiness measure shown. Surprise Quartile by Emotional Sensitivity Quartile Emotional Sensitivity quartile 1234 Index Surprise quartile Likert Surprise quartile Combined Surprise quartile

Mainline ΔHappiness Regressions Pre- and post-election waves Pre-election intensity of preferences and change in happiness, pre-to-post-election Dependent variable is ΔHappiness Index (-100 to 100) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9) Surprise measure (studentized) (0.98)^(1.05)(0.95)^(0.98)(1.05) (0.96)^(1.05)(1.06) Obamamania (studentized) (0.98)(1.05)(1.00) (1.05)(1.06)(1.00)(1.06)(1.07) Emote Sensitivity (studentized) (0.83)^ (0.84)^(0.82)^(0.83)^(0.82)^ (1.01) Surprise*Obamamania (0.92)(0.93)(0.92)(0.93)(0.92) Surprise*Sensitivity (1.05)(1.03)(1.26)(1.24)(1.27) Obamamania*Sensitivity (0.91)(0.90)(1.10)(1.08)(1.14) Surprise*Obama*Sensitivity0.19 (1.21) N1314 R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Standard errors robust to heteroskedasticity are in parentheses. All regressions also include a constant term. The mean of the dependent variable is Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.

Mainline ΔHappiness Regressions Pre- and post-election waves Pre-election intensity of preferences and change in happiness, pre-to-post-election Dependent variable is ΔHappiness Likert Scale (-6 to 6) (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9) Surprise measure (studentized) (0.046)(0.050)(0.045)(0.046)(0.050) (0.046)(0.050)(0.049) Obamamania (studentized) (0.043)(0.046)(0.043) (0.046) (0.043)(0.046)(0.045) Emote Sensitivity (studentized) (0.037) (0.036)(0.037)(0.036) (0.042)^ Surprise*Obamamania (0.048) (0.046) Surprise*Sensitivity (0.044) (0.051) (0.054) Obamamania*Sensitivity (0.042) (0.049) Surprise*Obama*Sensitivity0.091 (0.052)^ N1315 R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Standard errors robust to heteroskedasticity are in parentheses. All regressions also include a constant term. The mean of the dependent variable is Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.

Mainline ΔHappiness Regressions Pre- and post-election waves Pre-election intensity of preferences and change in happiness, pre-to-post-election Dependent variable is ΔHappiness: Combined Index and Likert Scale, Studentized (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9) Surprise measure (studentized) (0.038)(0.037) (0.038)(0.036)^(0.037)^(0.037)(0.036)^ Obamamania (studentized) (0.035)(0.036)(0.035) (0.036)(0.037)(0.035)(0.037) Emote Sensitivity (studentized) (0.027)(0.031) (0.037)(0.031)(0.030) (0.032) Surprise*Obamamania (0.037)^ (0.036)^ Surprise*Sensitivity (0.040)(0.039)(0.044)(0.043)(0.041) Obamamania*Sensitivity (0.034) (0.037) (0.038) Surprise*Obama*Sensitivity0.051 (0.041) N1314 R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Standard errors robust to heteroskedasticity are in parentheses. All regressions also include a constant term. The mean of the dependent variable is 0. Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.

Hedonic Adaptation ΔHappiness Regressions Pre- and post-election waves Pre-election intensity of preferences and change in happiness, pre-to-post-election Dependent variable is ΔHappiness: Combined Index and Likert Scale, Studentized (1) Whole sample (2) Obama voters (3) Other voters (4) Whole sample (5) Obama voters (6) Other voters Surprise measure (studentized) (0.038)(0.063)^(0.046)(0.036)^(0.123)(0.089) Obamamania (studentized) (0.035)(0.088)(0.093)(0.037)(0.108)(0.096) Emote Sensitivity (studentized) (0.031)(0.044)(0.043)(0.032)(0.083)(0.073) Time elapsed (0.042)(0.058)(0.059)(0.042)(0.058) Time elapsed squared (0.006)(0.008)(0.009)(0.006)(0.008)(0.009) Interactions?No Yes N R-squared All results are from OLS regressions. Standard errors robust to heteroskedasticity are in parentheses. The interactions indicator represents all three two-way interactions as well as the three-way interaction show in the previous tables. All regressions also include a constant term. The mean of the dependent variable is 0. Coefficients in bold are significant at the 5 percent level.