Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

Types of elections Primary / Caucus General Designed to choose the parties nominee Example: Romney, Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum competing to be Republican nominee for 2012 Types: Closed: must declare in advance that you are a member of the party to take part in this election About 40 states (why? ) Open: on primary election day you pick which parties primary you will vote on 8 states Blanket: can vote in primaries for both parties Washington & Alaska Designed to pick the candidate who will actually hold office Example: Obama vs. Romney Hon .Clay Henry III of Lajitas , Texas

Types of Elections Primary / Caucus How to get on the ballot in NJ (each state is different) http://nj.gov/state/elections/candidate_pdf/partisan-candidate-requirements-123011.pdf It is estimated to cost about $50 million to run a successful primary/caucus campaign (Romney spent $110 million) In the past 3 decades, in almost every case, the candidate who raised the most money during this stage in the process won their party’s nomination What is a Caucus? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fobO82jbNRg 19 states Why do most states hold primaries? C’s are too time consuming!!!! About 10% turnout

Primaries / Caucuses So where does that $ go? Organization Fundraisers , Accountants , Press secretary , Scheduler , Speech writers , TV and internet advertising specialist , Pollsters , Direct mailing company & Social media specialists Helps to win Iowa Caucus and N. H. Primary  only 2 candidates in the past 10 elections have lost both and gone on to win their party’s nomination G. W. Bush in 2000 Clinton in 1992 So what do you have to do to win? Read: the excerpt from Stormy Weather What can help a candidate gain momentum? How long does the “invisible primary” last? Iowa doesn’t award delegates until weeks after the caucuses, so why are the Iowa caucuses still seen as important? Why does New Hampshire remain an indicator of who will win the eventual nomination?

Primaries / Caucuses Need to motivate voters to turn out for you Primary turnout low About 20% This results in candidates trying to appeal to the base of their party while also looking ahead to general election Republicans: need to appear conservative Democrats: need to appear liberal During the general election candidates generally return to more moderate stances, must remember what you say during primary/ caucus season will be used by your opponent Can result in “Clothespin voting”

Presidential Primaries / Caucuses When voting in a P/C you are actually selecting delegates who will attend the party’s National Convention to demonstrate support for that candidate. Much like the electoral college The Party’s decide the rules, they are not in the Constitution or state law, the party’s can change the rules prior to an election. Democrats award delegates proportionally in all states Republicans allow the state to decide if they want a winner take all system or a proportional system NJ = winner take all

Delegates Democrats Republican Total number of delegates: 4,339 Pledged: 3,537 Unpledged: 802 PLEDGED "PLEO" (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) DELEGATES Based on % of democratic vote in that state in the past 3 presidential elections UNPLEDGED "PLEO" DELEGATES (Super delegates occurred after 1980) Primarily Democratic Members of Congress, Governors, and "distinguished party leaders." 802 total. This equals 15% of pledged delegates Total Number of Delegates: 2,066 Pledged: 1,907 Unpledged: 159 Each state gets 6 delegates plus 3 for each member in the House BONUS DELEGATES Each state can earn additional delegates by meeting one or more of the following requirements: the state cast a majority of its votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the previous presidential election the state elected Republicans to the U.S. House or Senate, selected a Republican Governor or state legislative majorities and / or the state holds its presidential primary election after March 15th (this is to discourage states from holding early primaries).

General Presidential vs. General Congressional Campaigns More voters participate Typically about VEP 60% turnout since 1964 More party turnover Past 20 elections Republicans 9 times Democrats 11 times Less voter turn-out, especially during midterm elections (non-presidential election years 2002,2006, 2010..) Typically about 36% turnout since 1964 Historically less party turnover (recent exceptions include 2006 and 2010) Why?!? Incumbency advantage More direct connection to the voter (service to constituents) Separate themselves from the “mess in Washington” Sophomore surge: can use perks of office to get elected http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-republicans-will-hold-the-house/ How to get on the ballot for the general election in NJ http://nj.gov/state/elections/petitions/2012-general-president-inst.pdf

Presidential Elections Who does the public prefer? Most candidates have experience in multiple areas listed below

Presidential Election Theme? A simple ,appealing idea that can be repeated over and over and over and over and over (you get it) Obama: Forward Romney: We can’t afford 4 more years If you are an incumbent, you will invariably have to defend your record Tone? Positive? Build me up Negative? Knock them down Overall theme and campaign: How Barack Obama Won in Lanahan

Negative Campaigning http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLj6yY4P_Rg Jefferson and Adams http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k Daisy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y Willy Horton From Going Dirty in Lanahan: Negative Campaigning

Timing? Start too early and you may go broke, too late and you may not build up enough momentum or name recognition Targets? Who are the undecided in this election? How will you sway them? http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-race-obama-romney-re-tooling-to-attract-independent-and-undecided-voters-in-final-dash/2012/10/23/2a499744-1d32-11e2-8817-41b9a7aaabc7_story.html

Presidential Elections What types of issues will you focus on? Position: rival parties take different stances Taxation: Obama : increase taxes on wealthy to help pay down debt Romney: decrease tax rate for all to help struggling economy Valence: how closely a party/candidate is connected with a concept Nixon: associated with a tough stance on crime Reagan: more associated with a strong economy

Presidential Elections Who is going to be your Vice President? Need to pick someone who will appeal to a part of the party you may not appeal to “balance the ticket” Youth / Experience Regional Moderate / Conservative or Liberal Unify party after bitter primary Classic examples Kennedy and Johnson Reagan / G.H.W. Bush How does Obama /Biden reflect this? How does Romney / Ryan reflect this? Classic Anomaly: Clinton / Gore

Presidential Elections How will you “advertise” your candidate? TV Debates Direct Mail Internet

General Election and the Electoral College www.270towin.com http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50133559n&tag=showDoorFlexGridLeft;flexGridModule