1 Meeting of the OECD Short-term Economic Statistics Expert Group 24-25 June 2002 REVIEW OF CONCEPTS AND NATIONAL EXPERIENCES IN THE COMPILATION OF: DEMAND.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Meeting of the OECD Short-term Economic Statistics Expert Group June 2002 REVIEW OF CONCEPTS AND NATIONAL EXPERIENCES IN THE COMPILATION OF: DEMAND INDICATORS OUTPUT INDICATORS

2 Demand and Output Indicators Aims of session: review availability of demand and output indicators across Member countries; consider issues that impact on the comparability of those indicators. Also methodological transparency; areas of future work - guidelines, concepts clarified; possible future work on output indicators for services; how to complement work of other organisations and groups

3 Demand and Output Indicators - Concepts/terminology For the purpose of STESEG: Demand indicators comprise indicators of: turnover (industry only), new orders received, sales, stocks, building permits, etc; Output indicators comprise indicators of production (industry and construction); turnover for services. Measurement of services activity is relatively straight forward. Measurement of services output less so. Turnover is used as a “proxy” measure of output.

4 Demand and Output Indicators

5 Demand and Output Indicators - Availability Almost all countries compile industrial production and turnover indicators. Almost all compile retail turnover indicators Most compile indicators of construction output, building permits. About half of the 30 countries compile indicators of turnover in services other than retail. Few compile investment indicators

6 Demand and Output Indicators - Comparability Availability does not necessarily imply complete comparability. Some departures from international standards may have little actual impact on comparability, particularly on period to period movements and for “headline” estimates. Significance of differences depends on use of statistics and the methodological issue/dimension that is of importance to users. Highlights the importance of providing metadata. Enables user to evaluate importance of differences. Not possible to provide metadata on all issues. An informed guess. Which issues are important to describe.

7 Demand and Output Indicators - Comparability Main issues regarding comparability from OECD perspective are: Use of different statistical units in the collection of the data. Selection is pragmatic (resources, minimise burden). Use of different size cut-offs (based on employment, turnover). Use of different compilation methodologies - deflation of sales/value data, selected commodities in quantity terms, or combinations. Different price basis for sales/turnover data - inclusion/exclusion of VAT, rebates, discounts, transport and packaging. Inclusion of different activities, particularly for services.

8 Demand and Output Indicators - Comparability Again, do differences really matter? What can be/should be done? Where should we place effort?  Further harmonisation? Diminishing returns for effort?  More methodological transparency. Let user make the decision.  National v. international repositories for metadata?  Is it possible to quantify the impact of methodological differences.

9 Demand and Output Indicators - Terminology Concepts of: output; production; stocks, etc appear relatively straight forward and adequately covered in UN and Eurostat recommendations/regulations. Are they? No universal definition of the concept “turnover”. Is defined in EU Council Regulations but not in any UN guidelines. Term seems to be used interchangeably with “sales”. Most national metadata not very clear on what “sales” and “turnover” data actually comprises. Does/should “turnover” include all forms of income to the unit - What about rent, interest? Other issues relating to terminology? Need for further guidelines, clarification of conceptual relationships.

10 Demand and Output Indicators - Services Short-term “output” indicators for services currently compiled in 14 OECD Member countries. In US soon (Bureau of Census). Countries also compile a range of indicators for selected service activities - e.g. hotel nights, tourist arrivals, quantities of goods/passengers transported, etc. Turnover commonly used as key measure. Not comparable, particularly regarding services activity coverage. EU Regulation specifies need for ST data for turnover, employment. What should be done in this area? Role of STESEG in relation to Voorburg, Eurostat

11 Demand and Output Indicators - Services Some of the issues outlined in para. 22 of background paper: Should overall output index be confined to market activities - regarded as cyclically sensitive? Should they be analogous to indices for industry production to enable comparisons to be made?Turnover commonly used as key measure. Should ST indices be complementary to quarterly and annual national accounts? Is there a preferred approach in compilation - e.g. deflating current values? Any benefits in an inventory of national indicators for services similar to that maintained by OECD for PPIs for services for Voorburg?

12 Demand and Output Indicators - Possible areas of future work for consideration/discussion by STESEG Outlined in para. 25 of discussion paper. What are the priorities? Clarification of concept of “turnover”. Further work on comparability. Comparison tables, worth trying to quantify impact of differences or should focus be on transparency. Further work on output indicators for services. Work to improve timeliness without sacrificing accuracy. Highlight best practice across OECD Member countries. Development of ST indicators for investment and inventories. Recommendations for data and metadata presentation. More detailed discussion on Day 2