Chapter 6 Day 3. Warm-Up  A sociologist studies social mobility in England by recording the social class of a large sample of fathers and their sons.

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Presentation transcript:

Chapter 6 Day 3

Warm-Up  A sociologist studies social mobility in England by recording the social class of a large sample of fathers and their sons. The social classes are ordered from Class 1 (lowest) to Class 5 (highest). Here are the probabilities that the son of a lower class (Class 1) father will end up in each social class.  Let A be the event that the son remains in class 1  Let B be the event that the son reaches one of the two highest classes.  Find the following probabilities  P(A)  P(B)  Probability that the son does NOT remain in class 1? P(A c )  Probability that the son remains in the lower class or reaches one of the top two classes. P(A or B) Son’s Class12345 Probability

Homework Solutions # A. 0.04B due to cardiovascular disease or cancer 0.33 due to other causes 10. A. 0.27B A. 0.65B. 0.38C A. 1B. 0.59C Win a large battle 0.6 probability vs probability of winning three small battles

 Multiplication rules work for compliments as well!  Look at example #15  A string of Christmas lights contains 20 lights. The lights are wired in a series, so that if any light fails the whole string will go dark. Each light has a probability or 0.02 of failing during a 3-year period. The lights fail independently of each other. What is the probability that the string of lights will remain bright for 3 years?

 What is the probability of each light not failing?  What is the probability of all 20 lights not failing?

Example  Most sample surveys use random digit dialing equipment to call residential telephone numbers at random. The telephone polling firm Zogby International reports that the probability that a call reaches a live person is 0.2. Calls are independent.  A polling firm places 5 calls. What is the probability that none of them reaches a person?  When calls are made to NYC, the probability of reaching a person is only What is the probability that none of 5 calls made to NYC reaches a person?

Example (classwork)  The table below shows the probabilities of selecting a given color of M&Ms:  Does the table contain all colors? How do you know?  What is the probability of choosing and M&M of a different color than what is listed?  What is the probability of choosing an M&M that is brown or yellow?  If you choose 2 M&Ms at random, what is the probability that both are brown or yellow? Color BrownRedYellowBlue Probability