SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop CWHxm (21% of District)

CWHxm – Sayward Forest

CWHxm Sayward Forest – CURRENT BEC

CWHxm Bookend Climate Scenarios

CWHxm Sayward Forest – PCM-B1 2050

CWHxm– PCM-B CDFmm temp CWHdm precip

CWHxm– Sayward Forest – HAD-A1FI 2050

CWHxm– HAD-A1F1 2050

CDFmm+ temp CWHmm Precip

CWHxm– HAD-A1F Summer heat: moisture index Just below some dry IDF subzones

CONSIDER CWHxm STAND / ECOSYSTEMS – In a changing climate

CWHxm STAND / ECOSYSTEMS (PCM & HAD) SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION: Sensitivity Classes Low – Stands will suffer minor losses due to climate change. Mod – likely will suffer significant but manageable losses and or secondary risks (fire etc.). High – likely will suffer major losses or incur high secondary risks, but catastrophic losses unlikely – Armillaria / D-fir bark beetle Very High – likelihood for catastrophic losses are high – like mtn pine beetle. Opportunity Classes Nil – No opportunity to enhance growth. Minor – Minor growth enhancement likely. Significant – significant growth enhancement likely. SpeciesSensitivity Class Opp. Class Reasoning (e.g. drought s stress/ (mostly Hadley Model) Douglas-firLow (if anything – may be hit by fires possibly foliar disease) SignifWill likely grow better (larger faster) More resilient to drier climates Better competitor Minor losses to Doug-fir Beetle Likely not lots of difference in disease levels (foliar diseases may be a problem – swiss needle cast) Fire – stands not that susceptible and drought increase may not be great enough.

CWHxm STAND / ECOSYSTEMS (PCM & HAD) SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION: SpeciesSens. Class Opp. Class Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/ HemlockMod (High closer to 2080) Will be hit by drought stress in mature stands at all ages – bad water managers. The only good Hw is a dead Hw here. Minor added impacts from insects. Hw that hangs in will be of marginal quality or confined to moist sites only. CwLowWill hang in on wet sites. Will decline on the mesic and drier sites – well drained soils where summer drought more of an issue. May do better than Hw – because it does in the CDF. Warmer aspects – likely more powder worm – not clear if heat or moisture that will be the issue.

CWHxm STAND / ECOSYSTEMS (PCM & HAD) SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION: SpeciesSens. Class Opp. Class Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/ DrLowMinorBetter growth on moister sites – more heat and no drought – hygrotopes of 4 or more. Zonal and drier sites will have poorer growth. Hydrologic changes in watersheds – may affect location and extent of riparian ecosystems – could impact alder - perhaps more an issue in wetter subzones. Could contract some of the wetter site series, but generally richer, more biologically active sites if moist enough. If more outflows - will have impacts on it – redheart impacts on quality – so question will be what will happen to outflows – now there is not a problem (likely minor issue). Insects and disease – may increase but unclear.

CWHxm STAND / ECOSYSTEMS (PCM & HAD) SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION: SpeciesSens. Class Opp. Class Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/ BgMod- High NilDry and mesic sites will seem signifcant mortality – Fir engraver beetle (with combination with drought) – starting now. Even problems on moist rich sites now. Adelgid problems – chronic on Bg. Can cause mortality over time. It does better on drought stressed trees – so even worse over time.

CWHxm Ecologically Suitable Regen – Now and Future MESIC SITE DISCUSSION : 1.What are the vulnerabilities and why? (drought / insects / disease?) 2.What are the opportunities – where / when? 3.What are the outstanding questions?

CWHxm Regeneration Vulnerabilities & Opportunities Added Comments: Doug-fir – a big opportunity for regeneration – less frost and snow. Summer drought may not be an issue – can plant in January-Feb without late winters (could take trees from nursery put in shed for a few days and plant on site – like in Oregon). So could handle the summer droughts – trees get established and will reduce planting costs and be more efficient. There is an increased opp for more estab of Dr– provides more flexibilty into the future with shorter rotations. Cw is currently limited right now with deer browse – so tough to increase over time. Pw – likely will have some opportunities to increase over time – rust-resistant provenances. Cost for seed is high. Hw – just say no (may be acceptable on the wetter site units) – note that Hw natural regen is way down currently in the xm1, while Fd nat regen is up (may be some chances for more natural Fd over time). Maple- may be opportunities to help increase diversity and provide forage for elk. Selective cutting of coppice shoots has been done in the past – note sure how stable? Or if infection will come in? May be opportunities for milling for some products in the future. Mesic Sites

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE CWHxm– Sayward Forest – PCM-B CWHxm1 CWHdm CWHxm1

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE CWHxm– Sayward Forest – HAD-A1F CWHxm-hot CDFmm-hot (+) CWHxm1

PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE CWHxm– Sayward Forest – HAD-A1F CWHxm-hot CDFmm-hot (+) CWHxm1