building resilience in managing fresh water Fred Boltz, Ph.D. COP18 Mountain Day

climate adaptation is most urgently about fresh water security

rapid climate change in the world’s water towers Nature 2008

degradation of freshwater ecosystems

fragmentation 2/3 of large river systems moderately or highly fragmented by dams and reservoirs

Dave Meko, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona. 1890–1922 most infrastructure and water resource management has been designed for a single climate most infrastructure and water resource management has been designed for a single climate climate-infrastructure mismatches

infrastructure has a climate-relevant lifetime if designed for a narrow operational window, it is likely to lose efficiency adaptability, multiple climate futures must be considered

basin-wide threats to food security

energy security threats to

Ethiopia : one drought lowered growth rates over a 12-year period by 10%; droughts normally happen every 3 to 5 years Sadoff & Muller 2009 threats to economies

resilience under climate-driven environmental change ? A change in “mean” climate State-level or stepwise climate change tipping point A change in climate variability drought flood resilience extreme event extreme event resilience facilitating change Represented in GCMs Changes in variability Major changes from the paleo record from LeQuesne, Matthews, et al., 2010, Flowing Forward. Washington, DC: World Bank. FlowingForward.org

conserving natural ecosystems is key to freshwater resilience Timing

connectivity and environmental flows

resilient biodiversity

designed and managed flexibly, for shifting ecological and economic conditions ecologically viable over an operational lifetime (or longer) building resilience into infrastructure

building (human) resilience in fresh water management integrate ecosystems into adaptation smart development: design new infrastructure to maintain environmental flows and ecosystem connectivity approach vulnerability assessment and reduction as a continuous, adaptive process: -- for ecosystems, infrastructure, and institutions

enabling dynamic operational decisions, policies and investments AGWA aims to integrate disciplines to facilitate the adoption of climate- adaptive best practices WCC mainstreams science and management guidance into global policies for effective freshwater adaptation

The Alliance for Global Water Adaptation Development banks and capacity-building groups The World Bank (co-chair) The Asian Development Bank, European Investment Bank, KfW, the Inter-American Development Bank, GiZ, the Cooperative Programme on Water and Climate Non-governmental Organizations Conservation International (co-chair), The Delta Alliance, International Water Association, the Swedish Environmental Institute (IVL), the Global Water Partnership, Deltares, Environmental Law Institute (ELI), Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI), Organization for European Cooperation and Development (OECD), Stockholm International Water Institute, Wetlands International, IUCN, The Nature Conservancy, ICIMOD, WWF, Water & Climate Coalition Government Agencies CONAGUA, Seattle Public Utilities, US State department, NOAA, US Army Corps of Engineers, UN Water, UN Habitat, UNECE, Water Utilities Climate Alliance, WMO Private Sector Ceres, UNEP FI, World Business Council for Sustainable Development

2004: a mild drought threatened the loss of 90% of the nation’s electricity due to degradation of the Rugezi wetlands upstream of the hydropower facilities national leaders quickly grasped that their dependence on the productivity and resilience of their freshwater ecosystems And thus their effective adaptation tied to maintaining ecosystem resilience Rwanda’s Rugezi crisis

maintaining natural resilience Restoration of hydrological function in national wetlands Restoration of hydrological function in national wetlands Shifting of land tenure system to protect fragile wetlands Shifting of land tenure system to protect fragile wetlands Greater emphasis on irrigation over precip- fed agriculture Greater emphasis on irrigation over precip- fed agriculture Restitution of national water monitoring Restitution of national water monitoring Three of four elements in the NAPA focus on flexible IWRM as a vehicle for adaptation Three of four elements in the NAPA focus on flexible IWRM as a vehicle for adaptation Source: 2011 REMA report by Matthews et al. for the GEF Source: 2011 REMA report by Matthews et al. for the GEF Kivu basin Kagera basin