The Philippine Millennium Development Goals: Where Are We Now? Presented by: DIRECTOR ERLINDA M. CAPONES Social Development Staff National Economic and Development Authority

Philippine Millennium Development Goals: Are We On Track? Where are we in terms of achieving the MDGs? How do we accelerate the attainment of the MDGs? How do we assess our statistical database system? How do we improve MDG monitoring?

Population Size: 76.Million Land area: 300,000 square kilometers (2000) Estimated Population: 88.7 Million (2007) Land area: 300,000 square kilometers Islands: 7,107 Regions: 17

Where are we in terms of achieving the MDGs?

TRACKING METHODOLOGY Ratio of required annual rate of change to reach the target to actual annual rate of change where: Actual Annual Rate of Change = Current – Baseline No. of yrs. from baseline to current year Required Annual Rate of Change = Target – Current No. of yrs. from current year to target year Ratio = Required Annual Rate of Change Actual Annual Rate of Change

How do we assess whether MDG targets will be met? Probability of Attaining the Target Ratio LOW > 2.0 MEDIUM 1.5 to 2.0 HIGH < 1.5

Philippines MDG Targets Rate of Progress: Philippines MDG Targets MDG BASELINE (1990 or year closest to 1990) CURRENT LEVEL TARGET BY 2015 PROBABILITY OF ATTAINING THE TARGET ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER Proportion of population below Subsistence threshold Poverty threshold 24.3 45.3 13.5 (2003) 30.0 12.15 22.65 HIGH Proportion of families below 20.4 39.9 10.2 24.4 19.95 Proportion of households with per capita intake < 100% dietary energy requirement 69.4 56.9 34.7 % underweight among 0-5 year old children 34.5 24.6 (2005) 17.25

MDG Rate of Progress: Philippines MDG Targets REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY BASELINE (1990 or year closest to 1990) CURRENT LEVEL TARGET BY 2015 PROBABILITY OF ATTAINING THE TARGET REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 80 32 (2006) 26.7 HIGH Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 57 24 19 COMBAT HIV / AIDS, MALARIA AND OTHER DISEASES HIV prevalence rate <1% (2010) HIGH Malaria morbidity rate (per 100,000 patients) 123 59 (2004) 24 ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Proportion of families with access to safe drinking water 73.7 80.2 (2004) 86.8 HIGH Proportion of families with access to sanitary toilet facility 67.6 86.2 86

MDG Rate of Progress: Philippines MDG Targets Maternal mortality ratio BASELINE (1990 or year closest to 1990) CURRENT LEVEL TARGET BY 2015 PROBABILITY OF ATTAINING THE TARGET ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION Elementary participation rate 85.1 84.4 (2005-2006) 100 LOW Elementary cohort survival rate 68.4 69.9 84.67 Elementary completion rate 66.5 67.99 81.04 PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY AND EMPOWER WOMEN Ratio of girls to 100 boys Elementary education 95.05 94.27 (2005) Secondary education 104.2 106.83 IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH Maternal mortality ratio 209 162 (2006) 52.2 INCREASE ACCESS TO REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH SERVICES Prevalence of men and women/couples practicing responsible parenthood 40 50.6 80 .

Rate of Progress: Sub-National MDG Targets Region Goal 1 Goal 2 Goal 3 Proportion of population below subsistence threshold Proportion of population below poverty threshold Prevalence of malnutrition among 0-5 year-old children Proportion of households with per capita intake below 100% dietary energy requirement Elementary participation rate Elementary cohort survival rate Ratio of girls to 100 boys in elementary Ratio of girls to 100 boys in secondary CAR High Low I Medium II III IV-A IV-B V VI VII VIII IX /2 X XI/3 XII /4 CARAGA No baseline ARMM NCR

Rate of Progress: Sub-National MDG Targets Regions Goal 4 Goal 5 Goal 6 Goal7 Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000 children) Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) Maternal mortality ratio Prevalence of men and women/ couples practicing responsible parenthood HIV Prevalence Malaria morbidity rate (per 100,000 population) Proportion of families with access to safe drinking water Proportion of families with access to sanitary toilet facility CAR High Low * I II No data III ** IV-A IV-B V Medium VI VII No baseline VIII IX /2 X XI/3 XII /4 CARAGA No reported cases ARMM NCR

II. How do we accelerate the attainment of the MDGs?

MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE Addressing wide disparities across regions Curbing the high population growth rate Accelerating the implementation of basic education and health reforms

MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE Ensuring strict enforcement of laws pertinent to the achievement of the MDGs Strengthening the capacity of LGUs to deliver basic services and manage programs and projects Ensuring transparency and accountability in government transactions

MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE Generating and mobilizing increased resources for MDG-related programs and projects Strengthening partnership with NGOs, business sector and ODA community

statistical database system? III. How do we assess our statistical database system?

What are the indicators used in monitoring the MDGs? Total Indicators 48 Available 30 Not Available 7 Not Applicable 11

Total MDG Indicators = 48 1. Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day 2. Poverty gap ratio 3. Share of poorest quintile in national consumption 4. Prevalence of underweight children under 5 yrs of age 5. Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption 6. Net enrolment ratio in primary education 7. Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 6 8. Literacy rate of 15-24 year old 9. Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education 10. Ratio of literate females to males 11. Share of women in wage employment in non-agricultural sector 12. Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament 13. Under-five mortality rate 14. Infant mortality rate 15. Proportion of 1 year-old children immunized against measles 16. Maternal mortality ratio 17. Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel 18. HIV prevalence among 15-24 year old pregnant women 19. Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate 20. Number of children orphaned by HIV/AIDS 21. Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria 22. Proportion of pop. In malaria risk areas using effective malaria prevention & treatment measures 23. Prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis 24. Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed treatment short course (DOTS) 25. Proportion of land area covered by forest 26. Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area 27. Energy use per $1 GDP 28. Carbon dioxide emissions 29. Proportion of pop. using solid fuels 30. Proportion of pop. with sustainable access to improved water source 31. Proportion of urban population with access to improved sanitation 32. Proportion of HH with access to secure tenure 33. Net ODA, total and to LDCs, as percentage of OECD/DAC donors' gross national income 34. Proportion of total bilateral, sector-allocable ODA of OECD/DAC donors to basic social servcies 35. Proportion of bilateral ODA of OECD/DAC donors that is untied 36. ODA received in landlocked countries as proportion of their GNIs 37. ODA received in small island developing States as proportion of their GNIs 38. Proportion of total developed country imports 39. Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on agricultural products and textiles and clothing from developing countries 40. Agricultural support estimate for OECD countries as percentage of their GDP 41. Proportion of ODA provided to help build trade capacity  42. Total number of countries that have reached their HIPC decision points completion points 43. Debt relief committed under HIPC initiative, US$ 44. Debt service as a % of exports of goods and services 45. Unemployment rate of 15-24 yr. old 46. Proportion of pop. With access to affordable essential drugs 47. Telephone lines and cellular subscribers 48. Personal computers in use and internet users

Available Indicators = 30 1. Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day 2. Poverty gap ratio 3. Share of poorest quintile in national consumption 4. Prevalence of underweight children under 5 yrs of age 5. Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption 6. Net enrolment ratio in primary education 7. Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 6 8. Literacy rate of 15-24 year old 9. Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education 10. Ratio of literate females to males 11. Share of women in wage employment in non-agricultural sector 12. Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament 13. Under-five mortality rate 14. Infant mortality rate 15. Proportion of 1 year-old children immunized against measles 16. Maternal mortality ratio 17. Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel 18. Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate 19. Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria 20. Prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis 21. Proportion of land area covered by forest 22. Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area 23. Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) and consumption of ozone-depleting CFCs 24. Proportion of pop. using solid fuels 25. Proportion of pop. with sustainable access to improved water source 26. Proportion of urban population with access to improved sanitation 27. Proportion of HH with access to secure tenure 28. Debt service as a % of exports of goods and services 29. Unemployment rate of 15-24 yr. old 30. Telephone lines and cellular subscribers Source: NSCB

Not Available = 7 HIV prevalence among 15-24 year old pregnant women No. of children orphaned by HIV/AIDS Proportion of population in malaria risk areas using effective malaria prevention and treatment measures Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed treatment short course (DOTS) Energy use (kg oil equivalent) per $1 GDP Proportion of population with access to affordable essential drugs on a sustainable basis Personal computer in use pr 100 population and internet users per 100 population Source: NSCB

Not Applicable = 11 Source: NSCB Net ODA, total and to LDCs, as percentage of OECD/DAC donors' gross national income Total no. of countries that have reached their HIPC decision points and number that have reached their HIPC completion points Debt relief committed under HIPC initiative, US$ Proportion of total bilateral, sector-allocable ODA of OECD/DAC donors to basic social servcies (basic education, primary health care, nutrition, safe water and sanitation) Proportion of bilateral ODA of OECD/DAC donors that is untied ODA received in landlocked countries as proportion of their GNIs 7. ODA received in small island developing States as proportion of their GNIs Proportion of total developed country imports (by value and excluding arms) from developing countries and LDCs, admitted free of duties Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on agricultural products and textiles and clothing from developing countries Agricultural support estimate for OECD countries as percentage of their GDP Proportion of ODA provided to help build trade capacity  (OECD and WTO are collecting data that will be available from 2001 onwards) Source: NSCB

Additional Indicators Completion rate Simple and Functional Literacy rates Drop-out rate Gender-based violence (GBV) Gender development index (GDI) Gender empowerment measure (GEM) Labor force participation rate (LFPR) by sex Women’s participation in governance Percentage of births delivered in a health facility Prenatal coverage Percentage of those injected with tetanus toxoid Provision of iron tablet supplements Prevalence of men and women/couples practicing responsible parenthood (contraceptive prevalence rate)

Major MDG Data Sources Surveys Family Income and Expenditures Survey (FIES) National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) Family Planning Survey (FPS) Annual Poverty Indicators Survey (APIS) National Nutrition Survey (NNS) Functional Literacy, Education and Mass Media Survey (FLEMMS) Government Agencies National Statistics Office (NSO) National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Commission on Higher Education (CHED) Department of Education (DepEd) Department of Health (DOH) Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) Forest Management Bureau (FMB) Food and Nutrition Research Institute (FNRI) National Telecommunications Commission (NTC)

What are the problems in tracking the MDG progress? Infrequent conduct of surveys Unavailability of data at the sub-national level Incomparability of data Need to improve methodology in determining probability of meeting the MDG targets

IV. How do we improve MDG monitoring?

MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE Regular conduct of censuses and surveys Nationwide adoption of Community- Based Monitoring System (CBMS) Adoption of small area estimates

MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE Explore possibility of adopting a standard international methodology for determining the probability of meeting the MDG targets Capacity-building for data generation, analysis, and monitoring

THANK YOU!