Agricultural resilience -- what do we know and what do we need to know Sir Gordon Conway, Professor of International Development Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College, London European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels, March 4, 2013

 Rising sea and land temperatures  Three Drivers:  Tropical convection  The Monsoons  El Niño – La Niña Oscillation

El Niño La Niña

Gradual build-up of adverse events Pest and disease attack Land degradation Growing pollution Increasing temperatures Rising sea levels Greater or lesser rainfall Growing indebtedness

UNDP Human Development Report, 2006

Average Annual Max Temp > 30 0 C By 2050 Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics

Usually dramatic, largely unexpected events Locust outbreaks Disease outbreaks Sudden floods Major drought Cyclones Earthquakes Tsunamis Financial collapse

Hansen et al, 2012, NASA

Russia  Severe heatwave in 2010  Doubled Moscow’s death rate  30% of grain crops lost to burning Pakistan  Worst floods in 80 years  Killed over 1600 people  Submerged 1/5th of the country, including 14% of Pakistan’s cultivated land

 Increased yields or production  On the same amount of land  With less water  Less fertilisers  Less pesticides  Lower emissions of Greenhouse Gases  Increased natural capital and environmental services  Greater resilience

 Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices  e.g.  Agroforestry  Integrated Pest  Management  Organic farming

 Plants more nutritious  carbohydrate and protein  micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc)  Plants more resilient to  pests and diseases  climate change  Plants more efficient at  converting sunlight to food  taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere  using water

 $500 million losses a year in Uganda  Academia Sinica provided sweet potato gene  Successfully transferred to bananas  In Ugandan field trials  Entirely government funded

 Genes from Bacterial RNA that help to repair misfolded proteins resulting from stress  Plants rapidly recover  No yield penalty when stress free  In African field trials

Model of Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa (AGRA ) Rural Economy Farm Household in the local community Seed Co Agrodealer Fertiliser Co Banks for microcredit Local trader Connectivity Regional trade National trade

Increasingly frequent and severe droughts, floods, and storms Fertile lowlands good crops but can be destroyed during flood Highlands good crops of maize and cassava during flood years, but less productive otherwise Eduardo Mondlane

Conway, G. ‘One Billion Hungry: Can we feed the world?’ Follow us on twitter: #1billionhungry For more info on Ag4Impact, go to: Contact: Thank You