Lorem Ipsum Dolor Inductive Reasoning and Fallacies Chapter 9 p. 165

Inductive Reasoning ❖ From Specific Instances to General Conclusion ❖ Never certainty, always only probability ❖ The greater the probability, the more likely it is we can act on our conclusion ❖ P. 166: Case scenario

Evaluating Generalizations ❖ A generalization is a conclusion based on data gathered of specific instances. See page 167 and evaluate the reliability of these generalizations: ❖ People over the age of 60 tend to prefer to listen to oldies ❖ 73 percent of hotel rooms in this city are infested with bedbugs ❖ It's probably going to be cloudy and cold in San Francisco if you go in August

Four Questions for Evaluating Inductive Claims ❖ Was the correct group sampled? ❖ Were the data obtained in an effective way? ❖ Were enough cases considered? ❖ Was the sample representative? ❖ See page 168: Explain the meaning of each of these questions

"Correlation is not Causation" ❖ What is the meaning of: ❖ Coincidence ❖ Correlation ❖ Causation

Coincidence ❖ Two events happen together by chance ❖ Being struck twice by lightning ❖ By coincidence, every man in the room was named Fred. ❖ “I'm going to Boston this weekend.” “What a coincidence! I am too.” ❖ It was no coincidence that he quit his job at the bank a day after the robbery. ❖ Every person in this room is a third son.

Correlation ❖ Two events or characteristics that are usually found together, but one does not necessarily cause the other. ❖ "Correlation does not equal causation" ❖ Southerners and grit-eating. ❖ Dying one's hair and being a woman. ❖ Rise in food stamps and Barack Obama becoming president. ❖ Students who sit in the front of the class and students who make As.

Correlations ❖ Does eating more make you fat -OR- does being fat make you eat more? ❖ Are active people lean because they are active? -OR- Are lean people active because they are lean ❖ Gary Taubes, Why We Get Fat: And What to do About It: Two groups of mice had ovarectomies; both became obese. One group ate as much as they wanted (too much); the other group was put on a diet. Both remained obese, though the group on the diet became more sedentary.

More Correlation ❖ Most people who get lung cancer are or have been smokers. ❖ But most smokers do not get lung cancer. ❖ What causes lung cancer?

Causal Relationships ❖ One event (or characteristic) causes another: are the following causal relationships? ❖ Driving 120 miles an hour and accidents. ❖ Jumping off a 20 story building and death. ❖ Tectonic plates shifting and earthquakes. ❖ Car emissions and climate change. ❖ Marijuana and apathy ❖ Being raised in single parent families and failure

Inductive Fallacies ❖ Erroneous (Hasty) Generalization (p. 172) ❖ Playing with Numbers (p ) ❖ False Dilemma (Either/Or) (p. 173) ❖ The Gambler's Fallacy (p. 173) ❖ The False Cause Fallacy (p. 174) ❖ The Slippery Slope Fallacy (p. 175)

Evaluate Arguments p. 177 ❖ Identify the argument/fallacy in Questions 1-17