A graphical user interface for demographic simulation in high- performance environment Demonstration

The simulator User Interface The simulator User Interface is a cross- platform web-based graphical interface to create simulation agent-based models to study the demographic evolution of populations. It allows user to create agent-based demographic models to be later run on top of a parallel discrete-event engine. It is designed for modelers so that they can easily define models to describe different demographic processes and transparently run the models on a parallel computing environment The interface is designed with button to guide the user to the next step on creating the model Components of the user interface

Login in the User Interface Users can create an account to log in to the system and create their demographic models of simulation

Simulations list Users see the list of simulation models created. They can create new ones, edit existing models or just view them.

Creating a new simulation model Each simulation model can have up to 5 demographic components, which are: –Fertility –Mortality –Economic status –Marital status –Migrations (domestic migrations, emigrations and immigrations) Each of these components is a tab on the top menu. Users find also other menu tubs to –Configure simulation parameters –Create their own distribution, regressions or logic rules –Specify the initial population settings

Configuration settings (I) When creating a new model, users need first to specify configuration settings

Configuration settings (I) When creating a new model, users need first to specify configuration settings

Configuration settings (II) Users have to set the age groups they want to work with in the simulation and the economic status they want to take into account

Creating regions Users can define each regions they want to include in their simulation model. They can be homogeneous (same behavior for all of them) or heterogeneous. User can also define international regions.

Initial population (I) To start simulation, users have to create an initial population. This component shows the information user need to specify the initial population settings.

Initial population (II) Users can enter data manually or update it from a CVS file, which is very common in demographic studies

Fertility component To know when individuals will be born, the simulation models needs to know the fertility interval for women and the distribution, regression or logical rule which will set when each birth will take place. In this example, we specify a new distribution so births will follow an Exp(λ=1.5)

Mortality component To specify deaths, users can choose between setting the life expectancy at birth or choosing between general or by gender survival function or life table. In the example we can see an example of a survival function by gender.

Economic status component Users defined previously which economic status will be considered in the simulation. Now, they can specify the state diagram to define when an individual will change his/her economic status and how long it will be.

Marital status component Users can choose which marital status they want to consider in the simulation model. As in economic status component, they can specify the state diagram to define when an individual will change his/her marital status and how long it will remain in that status.

Domestic migrations/emigrations Users can model domestic migrations or emigrations. They just need to specify: -The function to know whether the family unit is going to migrate -The function to know whether this migration will be domestic or emigration -The distribution of migration to each domestic destination -The distribution of each emigration

Immigrations Users can define immigrations on each region. To do that, they need to indicate the number of family units to arrive and their characteristics in terms of proportions by age group, the type of family, marital status, economic status, number and age group of children and birthspacing.

Creating rules Users can define each regions they want to include in their simulation model. They can be homogeneous (same behavior for all of them) or heterogeneous. User can also define international regions.

Launching the simulation This code is written in C++, runs on any pc, cluster or supercomputer. Requirements: -μsik and libsynk libraries available from -MPICH or OPENMPI When the simulation model is defined, user can press the bottom button to launch the simulation code. Afterwards, the user interface shows the simulation code which can be downloaded.

Simulation results Simulation and post process analysis of results are not included in the user interface. The reason is access to most clusters and supercomputers is restricted. Therefore, users need to execute this code in their own systems and get the results. Results include a history of changes in the population demography. With these results we can elaborate common demographic graphics such as Population pyramids Plots of changes on individual statusSimulation performance graphics