Mapping rainwater management strategies at landscape scale Nile 3 on targeting and scaling out

Overview Introduction Concepts used (definitions) Modeling framework with illustration Using the maps Up-coming research 2

Targeting and scaling out tool Objective Feasibility maps that includes bio-physical and socio-economic criteria Landscape approach to rainwater management modeling 3 intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Overview Introduction Concepts used (definitions) Modeling framework with illustration Using the maps Up-coming research 4

Some definitions Rainwater management practice = farmers’ choice to improve water retention or water productivity Soil and water conservation (bunds, …) Water harvesting Tree (agro-forestry) Livestock and grassland management Crops and fertility management Intervention = “external actor” to enable a practice change 5 intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Landscape approach to water intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Highland : infiltration ↑ Midlands : SWC ↑ Lowlands : efficiency ↑ Landscape approach to water intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Rainwater management strategy ZoneCroplandGrasslandDegraded Uplands Increase infiltration Orchards, multi-purpose trees Increase the quantity and quality fodder for livestock Grassland management Rehabilitated degraded land Gully rehabilitation Midlands Increase SWC Terraces, bunds Lowlands More efficient use water River diversion, wells IndependentIncrease water in dry season Water harvesting 8 intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Overview Introduction Concepts used (definitions) Modeling framework with illustration Using the maps Up-coming research 9

Modeling framework 10 Mapping RMS at landscape scale Rainwater management strategy map Feasibility map practice B Feasibility map practice C Transformation into spatially explicit variables and threshold definitions Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic and institutional drivers for each individual practice (diversion, terraces, trees,…) Feasibility map practice A intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Modeling framework 11 Mapping RMS at landscape scale Rainwater management strategy map Feasibility map practice B Feasibility map practice C Transformation into spatially explicit variables and threshold definitions Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic and institutional drivers for each individual practice (diversion, terraces, trees,…) Feasibility map practice A intro concept frameworkuse up-coming Database of 80 practices

Modeling framework 12 Mapping RMS at landscape scale Rainwater management strategy map Feasibility map practice B Feasibility map practice C Transformation into spatially explicit variables and threshold definitions Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic and institutional drivers for each individual practice (diversion, terraces, trees,…) Feasibility map practice A intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Suitability criteria PracticeBiophysical criteria Expected socio-economic and institutional criteria Upland : orchards Apple tree Minimum temperature below 10c Luvisol, nitisol, leptosol Sub-humid zone Distance to market Land holding size Mango trees Nitisol Sub-humid zone Distance to market Land holding size Midland : terraces Bench terracing Semi-arid and sub-humid zones* soils drainage ≠ poor Slope between 12-58% Household size, Hired labor, Access to advice, Land fragmentation, Agricultural dependency, Rented land Hillside terracing Arid and semi-arid slope % household size, Land holding size, Hired labor, Access to advice, Land fragmentation, Agricultural dependency, Rented land Lowland River diversion2.5km around perennial river soil texture = fine Access to capital, Household size Access to advise, Access to market 13

Modeling framework 14 Mapping RMS at landscape scale Rainwater management strategy map Feasibility map practice B Feasibility map practice C Transformation into spatially explicit variables and threshold definitions Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic and institutional drivers for each individual practice (diversion, terraces, trees,…) Feasibility map practice A intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Getting single feasibilty maps Bio-physical suitabilityWillingness to adopt Feasibility map intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Biophysical suitability maps 16 equal weight aggregation Apple treeMinimum temperature below 10c Luvisol, nitisol, leptosol Rainfall >1400 mm intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Adoption maps : Small area estimation technique 17

Adoption rule for orchard 18 Variable at farm levelOrchards Variable at woreda level household density (0.029) Population density Landholding (0.001) Average landholding Average plot size (0.000) Average plot size Red soil (0.020) Nitisol Access to advise (0.050) Percent of HH with access to advise Access to credit (0.038) Percent of farmers with access to credit Constant (0.000) Constant Pseudo R-squared0.07

Adoption rule for SWC Variable at farm level Soil and water conservation Variable at woreda level Landholding (0.000) Average landholding Landholding squared (0.020) Clay soil (0.027) Vertisols Access to advise (0.000) Percent of HH with access to advise Off farm activity (0.011) Agricultural dependency Hired labor (0.000) percent of HH with hired labor Constant Constant 19

Adoption rule for diversion Variable at farm levelRiver diversion Variable at woreda level household density (0.020) Population density Landholding (0.000) Average landholding Landholding squared (0.000) Average plot size (0.001) Average plot size Hired labor (0.000) percent of HH with hired labor Time to output market (0.005) Time to market Time to output market squared (0.043) Constant (0.000) Constant 20

Willingness of adoption maps 21 intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Feasibility maps 22 intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Modeling framework 23 Mapping RMS at landscape scale Rainwater management strategy map Feasibilty map practice B Feasibilty map practice C Transformation into spatially explicit variables and threshold definitions Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic and institutional drivers for each individual practice (diversion, terraces, trees,…) Feasibilty map practice A intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Strategy quantification 24 ObjectiveExample quantification 1 Identify landscapes in which sufficient area are suitable in bio- physical terms. At least 10% of the area is suitable for SWC and terracing and at least 2% of the area is suitable for river diversion 2 Identify landscapes where people are likely to adopt the strategy The minimum adoption on suitable area of any of the three practices is bigger than 0 3Identify landscape where sufficient area is feasible both in bio- physical and socio- economic terms. Combination of the conditions of quantification 1 and quantification 2

Aggregation into strategies at landscape scale zonal overlay with a landscape layer Bio-physical map, willingness of adoption map, feasibility map 25 intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Overview Introduction Concepts used (definitions) Modeling framework with illustration Using the maps Up-coming research 26

Using the maps High uncertainty Difficulty to validate the maps Entry point to start a discussion with community Towards an open source GIS tool for policy makers, research centers, NGO, extension service 27 intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

Overview Introduction Concepts used (definitions) Modeling framework with illustration Using the maps Up-coming research 28

Up-coming research Map validation in 4 new watersheds Using the “happy strategy game” Farm household survey (600 farmers) Impact assessment on hydrology, ecosystem services, livelihoods Explorative scenarios 29 intro concept frameworkuse up-coming

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35 PracticeBiophysical criteriaExpected socio-economic and institutional criteria Apple treeMinimum temperature below 15c Luvisol, nitisol, leptosol Rainfall >1400 mm Crop land Distance to market Land holding size Mango treesNitisol Rainfall > 1400 mm Crop land Distance to market Land holding size Multipurpose tree Sesbania sesban Rainfall Crop land, medium and high degradation Age, Household size Land holding size Rented land Land fragmentation Livestock intensity Bench terracingRainfall < 1400mm soils drainage ≠ poor Slope between 12-58% Crop land Household size Hired labor Access to advice Land fragmentation Agricultural dependency Rented land

36 PracticeBiophysical criteriaExpected socio-economic and institutional criteria Hillside terracingRainfall < 900mm slope % Crop land household size Land holding size Hired labor Access to advice Land fragmentation Agricultural dependency Rented land Soil bundrainfall < 1400 mm slope 3-15% on rainfall > 1400mm if graded soil ≠ leptosol soil drainage ≠ poor ≠ degraded land household size Land holding size Hired labor Access to advice Land fragmentation Agricultural dependency Rented land Stone bundslope 5-35% rainfall < 1400 mm and rainfall >1400 if soil = nitisol and if drainage = good (MoRAD) OR soil type = leptsol soil texture = medium household size Land holding size Hired labor Access to advice Land fragmentation Agricultural dependency Rented land

37 PracticeBiophysical criteriaExpected socio-economic and institutional criteria Fanya-juurainfall > 900mm rainfall 1500 slope 3-15% soil = nitisol Agricultural dependency Livestock intensity Access to credit Access to extension service Landholding per person Education Household size River diversion2.5km around perennial river soil texture = fine Access to capital Household size Access to advise Access to market Wellvery shallow + shallow aquifers slope < 35% soil ≠ leptosol Normalized topographic index between Access to market Access to credit Household size Landholding size

38 PracticeBiophysical criteriaExpected socio-economic and institutional criteria GulliesNormalized topographic index between Informal institution map? Area exclosureGrasslandInformal institution map? Water harvestingNo forestAccess to market Access to credit Household size Landholding size