OWLSIM: REVOLUTIONIZING NATIONAL ENERGY POLICIES THROUGH TECHNOLOGY COMP 410 in Collaboration with Citizens for Affordable Energy

Overview Introduction Simulation Framework Energy Model and Plans Advanced Features Conclusion Questions

Overview Introduction The Class: COMP 410 The Customer: Citizens for Affordable Energy Project Motivation The Mission The Team Simulation Framework Energy Model and Plans Advanced Features Conclusion Questions

The Class: COMP 410 “Software Engineering Methodology” Design class satisfying computer science Bachelors of Science degree capstone requirement Warm-up project during first 3 weeks, then semester-long project … with a real customer! Student driven – no problem sets or lectures

The Customer: Citizens for Affordable Energy CFAE is a national not-for-profit membership association Goal is to educate citizens and policymakers about non- partisan national energy solutions Leadership John Hofmeister, Founder and CEO Karen Hofmeister, Executive Director

Project Motivation CFAE is concerned with the lack of a long-term national energy policy Current policy may result in serious shortfalls in energy availability, affordability and sustainability CFAE wants a public software tool to simulate the long- term effects of national policies

The Mission Develop a simulation framework to predict the effects of policies Model U.S. electric power generation and distribution Create plans corresponding to best, average, and worst case scenarios Make the results accessible to the public

The Team User Interface Team Jesus Cortez (Team Leader) Robyn Moscowitz Tung Nguyen Narae Kim Simulation Team Ashrith Pillarisetti (Team Leader) Linge Dai Mina Yao

The Team Modeling Team Irina Patrikeeva (Team Leader) Elizabeth Fudge Ace Emil Framework Team Weibo He (Team Leader) Jarred Payne Yunming Zhang Xiangjin Zou

The Team Robert Brockman II – Project Manager James Morgensen – Architect Daniel Podder – Integration Master Elizabeth Fudge – Organization Master

Overview Introduction Simulation Framework Theoretical Design System Capabilities Energy Model and Plans Advanced Features Conclusion Questions

Theoretical Design Modeling complex systems with mathematical functions Functions represented as modular “circuit elements” with inputs and outputs Functional modules can be “composited” Encapsulate components of model Allows composite modules with other modules inside. Arbitrarily complicated models can be created

System Capabilities Scalability & Elasticity Scaling up and down according to loads Possible Parallel and distributed simulation instances Possible Load Balancing Flexibility Supporting multiple Use Cases Easy Maintenance, low cost Stability Handling hardware failures Handling software failures

Overview Introduction Simulation Framework Energy Model and Plans Model Implementation Viewing the Results Worst, Average and Best Case Scenarios Advanced Features Conclusion Questions

Energy Model Implementation Four main components drive the simulation 2. Infrastructure 3.Consumer 4. Environment 1. Producer

The Model Details 1. Producer simulates Production of electricity from: Coal, Natural Gas, Nuclear, Hydroelectric, Wind, Solar, Geothermal and Other (fuel cells, hydrogen, etc.) Production of transportation fuel Oil (petroleum) and Biofuels Inputs: Electricity and fuel demand from Consumer Electricity lost from Infrastructure Outputs: Electricity and fuel price to Consumer Electricity and fuel produced to Infrastructure Pollution to Environment 2. Infrastructure 3.Consumer 4. Environment 1. Producer

The Model Details 2. Infrastructure Simulates transport of electricity and fuel Inputs: electricity and fuel produced in Producer Outputs: Pollution to Pollution module Fuel transportation cost to Consumer Electricity lost to Producer 2. Infrastructure 3.Consumer 4. Environment 1. Producer

The Model Details 3. Consumer Inputs: Fuel transportation cost from Infrastructure Electricity price from Producer Outputs: Electricity and fuel demand to Producer Pollution to Environment 2. Infrastructure 3.Consumer 4. Environment 1. Producer

The Model Details 4. Environment Calculates the net pollution emitted during one time step Inputs: Pollution from Producer Pollution from Infrastructure Pollution from Consumer Outputs: Total pollution graph over time 2. Infrastructure 3.Consumer 4. Environment 1. Producer

Simulation Design The system starts at 2010 with a list of initial values (assumptions) Based on the assumptions the output of simulation will change User can provide events that change both initial values and future parameters Events are system parameters that affect a system at a certain date for a specified period of time Events allow to model technological progress, natural disasters, and other events that affect energy system

User Assumptions and Events User has the ability to change many aspects of simulation Example events How much electricity and fuel is produced from each source Net electricity and pollution produced from each source Power plants capacity Electricity lost due to transmission Cost of electricity production Population growth rate

Worst-Case Plan Simulation runs with default values (2010 data) No new power plants are built Nothing is done to reduce pollution Population and energy demand grows while supply decreases due to decommission of old power plants

Average-Case Plan User builds new energy sources Producing more electricity from cleaner renewable energy reduces the gap between supply and demand Environmental pollution is reduced No technological breakthroughs (capacity and cost of production do not drastically change)

Best-Case Plan Supply meets demand Energy is produced from clean renewable sources at affordable price Pollution is reduced

Comparison with Other Models No complicated equations Directly shows user changes Easy to use and test various assumptions Unbiased

Overview Introduction Simulation Framework Energy Model and Plans Advanced Features Changing the Plans Changing the Model System Administration Conclusion Questions

Changing the Plans User logs in using a Windows Live ID User can edit a plan Change inputs to simulation Adding, changing events User can save plan Simulate model with modified plan

Changing the Model Allows completely customized models using XML format

System Administration Used by CFAE administrators Adding Users Changing Privileges

Overview Introduction Simulation Framework Energy Model and Plans Advanced Features Conclusion Implications for Energy Policy Development Acknowledgements Summary Q&As

Implications for Energy Policy Development Ability to model new policies rapidly Lots of flexibility Common ground to model different policies with same framework Education of public Public forum for discussion on energy policy

Acknowledgements CFAE John Hofmeister, Karen Hofmeister Professors Dr. Stephen Wong, Dr. Scott Rixner TAs Dennis Qian, Max Grossman, Milind Chabbi, Rahul Kumar Oshman Engineering Design Kitchen staff Microsoft

Acknowledgements Smalley Institute: Dr. Wade Adams Dr. Carter Kittrell Dr. Richard Johnson Steven Wolff Others Jeffrey Bridge, Jeffrey Hokanson, Stamatios George Mastrogiannis

Summary Extensible framework for energy simulation Publicly accessible web application Graphical output Modifiable assumptions Pre-computed models Three energy plans for the next 50 years Questions?

References EIA etc.