RIVERS OF PAKISTAN INDUS JHELUM CHENAB RAVI SUTLEJ BEAS WESTERN RIVERS EASTERN RIVERS AFGHANISTAN INDIA IRAN

Gudu Sukkur Kotri

Meteoroburst Telecommunication System

Computer Based Flood Forecasting System

HAZARD CONTEXT Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) –There are 5218 glaciers in Pakistan with a total of 2420 lakes –Out of which 52 lakes are considered dangerous –An agreement for GLOF monitoring was arrived at with ICIMOD in 2003 –Since 2003, starting from the Astor Basin, all glacial basins have been inventoried for geo coordinates, numbered, named and their physical configuration have been recorded

Heavy to super heavy riverine flooding, significant flash flooding and cloud burst activity owing to heavy precipitation in mountainous and semi-mountainous regions causing sliding activity and severing population segments. Cyclone activity experienced affecting upto eight to ten districts in Sindh and/ or Balochistan causing widespread destruction along coastal region and massive inland flash flooding SCENARIO B (MOST DANGEROUS)

HAZARD CONTEXT Tropical Cyclone –Cyclone of 1999 seriously impacted Thatta and Badin Districts (affected 0.6 million people and caused loss of 202 lives) –Cyclone Yemyn in 2007 affected 26 districts of Balochistan and Sindh (affected 2.5 million people and caused loss of 400 lives)

HAZARD CONTEXT Summer Monsoons –Summer monsoons result in heavy cyclones and weather systems based precipitation originating from Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea –Water release from Tarbela and Mangla Dams augments above –Weather systems originating from Bay of Bengal and to a lesser extent Arabian Sea result in occurrence of tropical cyclones in the North Arabian Sea which impact coast of Sindh and Balochistan

HAZARD CONTEXT Flash Floods –NAs. Hunza, Ghizar, Astore, Gilgit & Skardu –NWFP. Charsadda, Peshawar, Mardan, DI Khan, Swat, Mansehra, Upper /Lower Dir & Chitral –AJK. Muzzafarabad, Neelum, Bagh, Kotli & Bhimber –Punjab. Sialkot, Wazirabad, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Bhakkar, Mianwali & DG Khan –Balochistan. Sibi, Jhal Magsi, Bolan, Kech, Gwador, Kharan, Kalat, Khuzdar & Lasbela –Sindh. Dadu, Qambar- Shahdadkot, Larkana, Karachi, Hyderabad, Sanghar & Badin Urban Floods. Karachi, Hyderabad, Rawalpindi & Lahore

33 Knots CYCLONE SCENARIO (Karachi Specific) Knots Knots Knots Storm Wind Wind speed up to 64 – 120 knots ( km/h) Wind impact commences when cyclone is kms from the coast

33 Knots 15 mm/hr mm/hr 25 mm/hr Rainfall mm rainfall ( inches) over a period of 36 hours CYCLONE SCENARIO (Karachi Specific)

A cyclone storm making landfall in Karachi City Storm Surge Wave –Height of the surge wave between feet or above –Wave is likely to travel up to 5 kilometres inland –Water inflows would be regulated along the road network and along Malir and Lyari rivers –Paralysis within 3-5 kilometres of the coastal region –Population evacuation within 2 kilometres along the coast CYCLONE SCENARIO (Karachi Specific)

TSUNAMI

National Disaster Management Authority

May 26, 2016May 26, 2016May 26, District Badin